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- America leads in tech – it has the best universities, strongest innovation, and highest expenditure for research.
- Not K2 Military Primacy
Tech LeadershipHigh NowU.S. will remain the technological and economic leader – strong growth, research, and energy expansion.Donilon 14 (Tom Donilon, Lawyer with a J.D. from the University of Virginia, “We’re No. 1 (and We’re Going to Stay That Way),” Foreign Policy, 3 July 2014, http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/07/03/were-no-1-and-were-going-to-stay-that-way/, *fc) The 2008 financial crisis tested our resilience and dealt a real blow to our international prestige and authority. Long-term challenges remain. But the fact is that no country comes close to matching our fundamental economic strength. The U.S. economy is built on a sound structural foundation, combining an entrepreneurial orientation, deep and efficient capital markets, highly experienced managers, and strong technological leadership. By every measure, the United States has the largest national economy in the world today, generating nearly $17 trillion in GDP. Our economy is nearly double the size of the second-largest, China’s. Our stock market capitalization is five times bigger than China’s. We lead the world in attracting foreign direct investment and are also the world’s largest single investing economy. An economy’s most important asset, however, is not its sheer size. China’s enormous population base will put it on a path to become the largest economy in the world at some point in the future. But history shows that size alone has not been the most important factor in determining the most powerful nation. At the peak of Britain’s global power, it was China that had the world’s largest economy, even though the country was then a middling power in the throes of what the Chinese refer to as their "century of humiliation." A far better measure of an economy’s health is its quality and sustainability. We have the wealthiest large economy in the world, as well as one of the most diversified and technologically advanced. China has a very large economy, but it’s still a poor country. According to the World Bank, U.S. GDP per capita is $53,143; China’s is $6,807. That provides an important perspective.
First, the United States has an innovation edge over the rest of the world. Apple, Google, Facebook, Twitter — all are synonymous with American economic vitality today, but only one of these companies existed 15 years ago. The eight largest technology companies in the world by market capitalization are based in the United States. And when it comes to the next frontiers in extraordinary breakout technology, like 3-D manufacturing, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, cloud computing, robotics, big data, and advanced material science, American entrepreneurs and companies are leading the way. The United States also leads the world in research and development, with a projected $465 billion in spending this year — that’s over 30 percent of all global R&D. Like so many of our strengths, our innovation advantage didn’t happen by accident. It stems from the combination of a risk-taking culture, significant investment by the American government in research, the best universities in the world churning out good ideas, and the kind of regulations and access to liquid and deep capital markets that make it possible to turn those ideas into businesses. And all these strengths come together in Silicon Valley, which represents to the world our spirit of creativity and innovation. A second — and frankly unexpected — U.S. economic asset is our national energy outlook. For most of the past 40 years, the United States thought of itself as a nation dependent on oil and energy-related events beyond our shores. Now, as U.S. innovation and technology allow us to tap unconventional resources, nearly every prediction about our energy future has been turned on its head. Today, the United States is the No. 1 producer of natural gas in the world, and the price of natural gas here is a fraction of what it is elsewhere. The International Energy Agency projects that the United States will be the world’s largest producer of oil by the end of the decade. Unconventional energy will propel our economy and support American jobs — nearly 900,000 by next year will come just from shale gas. Meanwhile, our new energy security is allowing us to engage the world from a position of strength. It gives us the latitude to support allies and, if need be, punish adversaries. The success of the international sanctions on Iran, for example, was made possible in large part because Washington was confident that increased American supply afforded it the possibility of removing a million barrels of Iranian oil off the market each day without dramatic increases in gasoline costs to U.S. consumers. And it was the bite of those sanctions that ultimately brought the Iranians to the negotiating table last year. Like our success in innovation, this energy renaissance did not happen by accident or because of luck — it is truly an only-in-America story. Many other countries have promising shale deposits. The reason that the United States has seen such dramatic and fast-paced energy changes is because decades ago, we made wise, significant investments in key technologies, and we have the right balance of an open investment climate, an innovative and entrepreneurial spirit, environmental safeguards, infrastructure, and property ownership rights. Today, the wide availability of cheap natural gas in the United States has become a major competitive advantage for our energy-intensive manufacturers, particularly compared with Europe and China. U.S. tech leadership will remain high – Chinese lack of innovation mean that its growth will stagnate before catching up to the U.S.Acemoglu and Robinson 12 (Daron Acemoglu, Professor at the MIT Department of Economics, and James A. Robinson, Professor of Government at Harvard University, “World’s next technology leader will be US, not China – if America can shape up,” The Christian Science Monitor, April 19 2012, http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Global-Viewpoint/2012/0419/World-s-next-technology-leader-will-be-US-not-China-if-America-can-shape-up, *fc) The odds favor the US not only because it is technologically more advanced and innovative than China at the moment, with an income per capita more than six times that of China. They do so also because innovation ultimately depends on a country’s institutions. Inclusive political institutions distribute political power equally in society and constrain how that power can be exercised. They tend to underpin inclusive economic institutions, which encourage innovation and investment and provide a level playing field so that the talents of a broad cross-section of society can be best deployed. Despite all of the challenges that they are facing, US institutions are broadly inclusive, and thus more conducive to innovation. Despite all of the resources that China is pouring into science and technology at the moment, its political institutions are extractive, and as such, unless overhauled and revolutionized soon, they will be an impediment to innovation. China may continue to grow in the near term, but this is growth under extractive institutions – mostly relying on politically connected businesses and technological transfer and catch-up. The next stage of economic growth – generating genuine innovation – will be much more difficult unless China's political institutions change to create an environment that rewards the challenging of established interests, technologies, firms, and authority. We have a historical precedent for this type of growth and how it runs out of steam: the Soviet Union. After the Bolsheviks took over the highly inefficient agricultural economy from the Tsarist regime and started to use the power of the state to move people and resources into industry, the Soviet Union grew at then-unparalleled rates, achieving an average annual growth rate of over 6 percent between 1928 and 1960. Though there was much enthusiasm about Soviet growth – as there is now about China’s growth machine – it couldn’t and didn’t last. By the 1970s, the Soviets had produced almost all the growth that could be derived from moving people from agriculture into industry, and despite various incentives and bonuses, and even harsh punishments for failure, they could not generate innovation. The Soviet economy stagnated and then totally collapsed. China has more potential than the Soviet Union. Its growth has not come simply by government fiat, but also because it has reformed its economic institutions, providing incentives to farmers and some firms (though having government connections still helps enormously, and challenging powerful firms can land you in jail or worse). China also had more technological catching up to do than the Soviet Union. But this potential will come to an end as well unless China radically transforms its institutions. This requires not only obvious steps such as introducing an independent judiciary, independent media, and more secure property rights for businesses, but truly inclusive political institutions. This necessitates a fundamental political opening so that political power is more equally distributed and can underpin economic institutions. This, in turn, will create a level playing field and encourage and fully reward all sorts of innovation – especially the disruptive kind. America leads in tech – it has the best universities, strongest innovation, and highest expenditure for research.Das 14 (Satyajit Das, Economic Consult with a B.A. in Commerce and Law from the University of New South Wales, “America’s Hard & Soft Power,” EconoMonitor, December 15 2014, http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2014/12/americas-hard-soft-power/, *fc) America remains a leader in science and technology. While the quality overall of its educational systems is far from exceptional, most studies rank elite US universities as among the best in the world. While other countries are investing heavily to bridge the difference, American innovation remains strong. US research and development (“R&D”) expenditures are around four times greater than say China, where the government has decreed that by 2020 R&D expenditures will constitute 2.5% of GDP. While difficult to accurately measure, the quality of scientific output in the US remains superior. A strong venture capital system supports fledgling businesses. Not K2 Military PrimacyAlt causes to decreasing military primacy – defense cuts, foolish spending, and bad planning.Forbes and Colby 14 (J. Randy Forbes, Chairman of the Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee of the House Armed Services Committee, and Elbridge Colby, Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, “We're Losing Our Military Edge Over China. Here's How to Get It Back,” The National Interest, March 27 2014, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/were-losing-our-military-edge-over-china-heres-how-get-it-ba-10134, *fc) While China’s buildup is a leading reason for this challenge to our military superiority, it is not the only one. Rather, we also find ourselves at this juncture through a combination of a foolishly constricting approaches to defense planning manifested by five years of defense cuts, including sequestration; a two-decade sanguinity about the true challenge to our military edge posed by China’s impressive military modernization; and, a refusal to ensure that our capabilities within the U.S. defense portfolio are militarily sufficient in quantity and diversity to maintain asymmetric superiority for full-spectrum warfare. Together, this lack of focus and indiscipline has helped allow countries like China to begin materially closing the once-yawning gap in military capability. 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