The Emerging Electrical Markets for Copper
Market Forecasts by Sector
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- Forecast Enhanced Wiring and Green Technologies Markets
- Figure 96: Forecast Percentage of Population Over 65
- Figure 97: Population Over 65 Forecast (million)
Market Forecasts by SectorForecast Smart Ageing Market The size of the smart ageing market depends on two things. Firstly, it depends on the number of elderly people in society. Secondly, it depends on the number of premises adapted for smart ageing. In this Section, we look just at the size of the elderly population. As indicated above, adaptation of premises for smart ageing can take many forms. While it is possible to define the structure and content of a fully adapted premise, many may be partial systems. In the analysis of the impact on copper below, therefore, we look at average rates of incremental copper use rather than the number of fully adapted homes that this would imply. We base our ageing population forecasts on UN data, and that provided by the EU. In Figure 96 we show the percentage of the population over 65 between 2008 and 2020. In Figure 97 we show the size of the ageing population, while in Figure 98 we show the annual increase in ageing population size. By looking at these tables, it is clear that the number of elderly people is rising, and at an accelerating rate. The annual addition to the ageing population is forecast to grow from 14.0 million worldwide in 2010 to 21.5 million in 2020. In Europe, the figures are 1.5 million for 2010 and 2.0 million for 2020. In comparison with many other parts of the world, with 86 million people aged 65 and above, the ageing population is already large in comparison with other world regions. While the rate of growth is less than the average, the size of the ageing population in Europe is forecast to grow to 103 million in 2020. While the potential market for smart ageing adapted residences is huge, at present only a handful are reconfigured for this purpose. The growth of this market, therefore, depends on the degree to penetration of smart ageing systems rather than the underlying potential. Forecast Enhanced Wiring and Green Technologies Markets The size of the enhanced wiring and green technologies markets depends on the size and growth of the housing stock, and then the penetration of these technologies. In this Section, we look just at the size and growth of the housing stock. As for smart ageing, the adaptation of premises to accommodate these technologies can take many forms. In the analysis of the impact on copper below, therefore, we look at average rates of incremental copper use overall and in specific market segments rather than specifying the number of fully adapted homes that this would imply. Accurate construction figures are notoriously difficult to compile. Using various sources, we have attempted to identify the dwellings in place and the annual rate of installation by both numbers and floor space. The latter is useful, as the amount of electrical installation tends to be proportional to Figure 96: Forecast Percentage of Population Over 65 
Figure 97: Population Over 65 Forecast (million) 
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