The Emerging Electrical Markets for Copper
Market Forecasts by Sector
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- Forecast Alternative Vehicle Market
- Figure 14: Some Alternative Vehicle Models Planned
- Figure 15: New Road Vehicle Output Forecast (‘000)
Market Forecasts by SectorCompetitive Environment for the Alternative Technologies The relative performance of the competing technologies is a matter of cost as well as the range of technology. As it stands, any form of alternative vehicle is considerably more expensive than an ICE alternative (by around € 4,000 for a current breed of hybrid). With greater competition in the production of alternative vehicles, developments in battery technology reducing cost and increasing vehicle efficiency, coupled with increasing fuel costs and incentives to use cleaner vehicles, the balance will change. It is generally thought that various types of hybrid and perhaps also BEVs will become a fully economic proposition to the car user around 2015. The exact winners in this battle will depend on the relative technical and economic merits of the alternative technologies over time. The forecasts that follow represent our best estimate of how the competitive process will pan out over time. Forecast Alternative Vehicle Market The alternative vehicle market at present is dominated by HEVs, with the Toyota Prius in turn dominating to HEV market. Virtually all of 751,000 alternative vehicles produced in 2009 were HEVs, and of these over 400,000 were Toyota Prius. Other significant contenders include HEVs by Lexus and Honda in Japan and Ford and Camry in the United States. Figure 14: Some Alternative Vehicle Models Planned  Figure 15: New Road Vehicle Output Forecast (‘000)
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