Figure 20: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Output Forecast (‘000 vehicles)
Figure 21: Forecast Share of PHEVs of All Alternative Vehicle Output
Our overall forecasts of vehicle output in this sector are based on consensus estimates. We have not made an allowance for the potential for greater two or three car ownership in families, different cars being used for short and long distance journeys. Any trend in this direction could easily be counterbalanced by greater use of car pooling arrangements and, indeed, reduced car use as home working and home shopping become more firmly entrenched and possibly also an enhanced role of public transport as car use in penalised.
Amongst consultants, opinions vary greatly as to the nature and speed of penetration of alternative vehicle types. At the low end, Price Waterhouse estimates 10% or less penetration by 2020; Boston Consulting Group forecasts a 24% market share4. Others put the figure higher at around 30%. Indeed, the normally conservative International Energy Authority forecasts that by 2020 the US passenger vehicle market will move from an almost exclusively ICE car market to a 50% ICE and 50% HEV, PHEV and BEV car market.
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