Figure 22: Battery Electric Vehicle Output Forecast (‘000 vehicles)
Figure 23: Share Forecast Share of BEVs of All Alternative Vehicle Output
In our forecasts, we have taken a mid-range figure, assuming that by 2020 the share of alternative vehicle types will have reached 16.8%, or 17 million vehicles. We see the realistic range as being between 10 million and 25 million vehicles.
Even greater disagreement is apparent as to the balance between alternative types of vehicle. We believe that when the appropriate battery and fuel cell technologies become available, there will be a rapid commercialisation of BEVs and FCEVs. We recognise, however, that the development of relatively cheap high density batteries and fuel cells could take longer than we are estimating, and that the development of both requires the building of a charging infrastructure which in turn would need considerable government backing.
For 2020, our forecasts indicate output of 6.8 million HEVs (40% of alternative vehicles), 4.3 million PHEVs (26%), 5.3 million BEVs (31%) and 0.5 million FCEVs (3%). We recognise, however, that it is also possible that HEVs and PHEVs will dominate this market, and that FCEVs may not show any significant development within the forecast time frame.
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