Figure 24: Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Output Forecast (‘000 vehicles)
Figure 25: Share Forecast Share of FCEVs of All Alternative Vehicle Output
Whatever the relative penetration of the different alternative vehicle types, it is very likely that both Europe and China will attempt to leapfrog the technology trend, focussing less on HEVs and PHEVs, more on BEVs and possibly also FCEVs.
While the proportion of ICE vehicles amongst overall vehicle sales is set to decline, it is not necessarily the case that absolute vehicle numbers will fall. Indeed, with relatively solid growth in overall vehicle output expected (driven by a rapid increase in penetration in developing Asia), only a very robust forecast of alternative vehicle penetration would give us a fall in ICE vehicle output. We forecast an increase of 0.9% p.a., from 60 million units in 2010 to 84 million units in 2020. With such large numbers still in place, it should be remembered that any development that increases (or decreases) copper use per unit will have a huge impact on copper use in the automotive sector overall.
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