[ ] The US has cancelled upgrades to military satellite communications now due to budget shortfalls Jakhu 2010 - Institute of Air and Space Law, McGill University (Dr. Ram , with Cesar Jaramillo Managing Editor, Project Ploughshares, Phillip Baines (Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, Canada),), John Seibert (Project Ploughshares), Dr. Jennifer Simmons (The Simmons Foundation), Dr. Ray Williamson (Secure World Foundation). “Space Security 2010.” Spacesecurity.org. August 2010. http://www.spacesecurity.org/space.security.2010.reduced.pdf. pp. 119-167. Accessed June 21, 2011
Upgrades to US military communications infrastructure remained a significant focus in 2009. In particular, the overall satellite communications roadmap has been streamlined, with over-budget and behind-schedule programs being cut entirely. While the $26-billion Transformational Satellite Communications System (TSAT) had been cancelled in 2008, with a view to launching a restructured, “slimmed-down” version in 2019,55 in April the Defense Department announced that it was cancelling all funding for even a “slimmeddown” TSAT and would instead procure two additional Advanced Extremely High Frequency (AEHF) communications satellites.56 It is estimated that this will save up to $2.5-billion by 2015.57 Nevertheless, AEHF has problems of its own. While it represents a less ambitious satellite communications system than TSAT, it too is over budget (technical problems caused $259-million in cost growth in 2009)58, behind schedule, and suffering from technical problems. The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) announced this past spring that “the Defense Department faces a potential gap in protected military communications caused by delays in the AEHF program.”59 The first AEHF satellite is scheduled to be launched in 2010 (rescheduled from 2008 and then 200960), with the second to be launched in 2011.61 The completed system will consist of three satellites in geosynchronous earth orbit (GEO), providing up to 100 times the capacity of the present Milstar communications satellite system and servicing up to 4,000 networks and 6,000 terminals.62 The Defense Department budgeted $2.3-billion for the AEHF program in 2010, up 318 percent from $552-million in 2009.63
[ ] Future funding for TSAT is not assured – budgetary pressure and empirical examples Katzman 2006, Product Manager and Editor of Defense Industry Daily [Joe Katzman. “Special Report: The USA’s Transformational Communications Satellite System (TSAT).” http://www.windsofchange.net/archives/006660.html#why. Accessed June 24, 2011.]
Which leads to our final question: will tsat SS be part of that network? One of the assumptions that's worth thinking about is whether the budget for tsat will continue to be there. Consider current US budgetary realities, the ongoing and unpredictable cost of a global war, the coming "maintenance overhang" for worn out equipment, outside events, and finally a wide array of under-funded Pentagon programs that reaches far beyond just the space field. Trent Telenko is right to point out that under those circumstances, a $15-18 billion satellite network that could cost $20 billion or more in the end and won't be ready for another 10 years is a prime target for program cuts. In terms of long term trends, Trent also notes that that narrowband satellites and marts-type high-altitude blimps for theater communications, wideband aehf satellites for mission-critical high-bandwidth transfers like uav video, encrypted communications via commercial satellite carriers, and laid fiber-optic cables for strategic communications are all beginning to appear on the scene. Every one of these components is already deploying, and both the US military and global economic forces will continue to add to their availability. As such, one can also expect every one of these infrastructure pieces to become more prevalent in the coming years. Throw in the possibility of finding new ways to leverage existing systems, and this constellation definitely represents a potential "incremental competition" threat to tsat. Which is why another key issue for tsat and tca is how well the Transformational Communications Office and its programs are documenting their assumptions about the future, checking them periodically to ensure that those assumptions are still valid, and building upgradeability and flexibility into their platforms and plans so they can cope with changes to those assumptions. In other words, they'll need to be good at all the things Motorola didn't do with its disastrous iridium global cellular network, which ironically now carries narrowband traffic for the u.s. military at bargain prices. Could tsat share iridium's fate at an even earlier stage, shot down by a creeping incremental set of competitors even before it launches? It could. Could tsat continue to improve, and turn out to be an expensive but important program success story? It could. Some of the choice between those fates lies in the hands of its contractors and managers. some of it lies in the upper reaches of the Pentagon. Some of its fate, however, lies entirely outside all of their hands.
[ ] TSAT’s cancellation crushes US military communications – there is no adequate replacement and we face processing gridlock Kusiolek 2009, Chairman and President of TransGlobalNet, Inc. [Richard Kusiolek. “Future Military Communications: What Happens after TSAT?” Satellite TODAY. September 1, 2009. http://www.satellitetoday.com/via/supplement/31919.html. Accessed June 24, 2011]
In July, at the Seattle World Affairs Council, U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus, leader of U.S. Central Command, discussed how broadband IP network technology won the 2008 battle of Sadr City, Iraq, as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and warfighters using broadband communications on the move played key roles. In small or large battlefield operations of the 21st century and beyond, bandwidth will be as important as bullets for the warfighters, and the Transformational Satellite Communications System (TSAT) was believed to be force driven and necessary for air and naval superiority. Now what are the consequences of the U.S. Department of Defense’s cancellation of TSAT and how will the bandwidth gaps be filled? Network-Centric Warfare The next revolutionary military communication satellite system, TSAT, was a development shaped by Sept. 11, global terror and the technology development of UAVs. The vision was to increase the military satellite data rate capacity by thousands of times and enhance the ability to deploy troops around the globe by creating a user-friendly interface available anywhere. With Milstar 2, an image collected by a UAV would take 2 minutes to process, a radar image 12 minutes and a space-based radar image would take 88 minutes. The vision for TSAT was that any of these images could be delivered in less than a second. But the program, TSAT, a constellation of six satellites connected to the Global Information Grid (GIG), was plagued with scheduling and budget problems since its inception in 2004. The satellite system was originally scheduled to launch in 2012 but was delayed to 2013after a $300 million reduction of program funding was cut by U.S. Congress in 2005. The U.S. Air Force then delayed its decision to select TSAT’s final space segment development contractor. In October, the Pentagon announced that it would defer its decision on choosing a contractor to build the system until 2010, with no guarantees that it would continue to fund further development. A November report by the Defense Science Board and the Intelligence Science Board had warned against further delays, calling TSAT "essential to enhancing military and intelligence operations. Without TSAT, mobile land forces and Navy ships will lack sufficient assured (ISR) [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance] communications capacity," the study said. In December, after rumors of the program being on the brink of termination and a series of critical reports from the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), the U.S. Air Force released a new request for proposal to Lockheed Martin and Boeing, changing the program timeline once more by calling for five satellites and ground stations, with the launch of the first satellite projected for 2019. Gates, who retained his position as defense secretary through the January administration change, finally pulled the plug on TSAT four months later. "Gates determined that the risks were not offset by the chances of success with the current TSAT architecture," says Bruce Bennett, program executive for satellite communications teleport and services for the Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA). Filling TSAT’s Gaps TSAT promised outstanding bandwidth and the ability to integrate with all of the Pentagon’s weapons systems — but with greater risk and higher cost. The end of the program leaves a gap in the military’s communications capabilities. One question before the GAO was, could this leading technology be integrated in time versus the Advanced Extremely High Frequency satellites that had 5 percent of the bandwidth of TSAT? "When they cancelled TSAT, they cancelled programs that were heavily reliant on TSAT," says Cristina Chaplain, director of acquisition and sourcing management for the GAO. ... "The question is how fast can AEHF come on line when they need it, as that program has its own problems?"
[ ] U.S. military lacking communication capacity – key to operations in all branches Katzman 2006, Product Manager and Editor of Defense Industry Daily [Joe Katzman. “Special Report: The USA’s Transformational Communications Satellite System (TSAT).” http://www.windsofchange.net/archives/006660.html#why. Accessed June 24, 2011.]
During 1991's Desert Storm operations, the U.S. military discovered that not only were they lacking in communications capacity, what they did have didn't connect very well. After September 11, experts learned that tremendous amounts of available information within and beyond the Defense Department required adequate connections among its various providers and users. Operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other battlefields of the Global War on Terror have further demonstrated the u.s. military's increasing reliance on high-tech communications and real-time data from uavs, naval assets, and soldiers on the ground. If bandwidth is becoming an important bottleneck in battle, went the question, what is the u.s. military to do? Very shortly after the 9/11 attacks, the u.s. Department of Defense (DoD) initiated a Transformational Communications Study to accelerate the delivery of advanced capabilities with state-of-the art technology to the field. The study was led by the National Security Space Architect (NSSA), and used the nssa's Mission Information Management Communications Architecture as a springboard. It looked at many options, and assessed current plans. The study concluded that the us. Military's existing program plan would not meet forecast communications requirements. It also suggested that there was a window of opportunity to provide an architectural framework for a compatible communications system across the Department of Defense and the intelligence community - one that could increase u.s. capabilities by a factor of ten. Those conclusions, plus ongoing experience in the Global War on Terror and new technology developments like uavs, helped shape the Transformational Communications Architecture (TCA). At present, all of the u.s. services are making future acquisition plans that are dependent on the capabilities the tca umbrella program is expected to provide. The tsat program is envisaged as part of the tca, providing its space-based "anytime, anywhere" bandwidth backbone.