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--- XT: Deforestation Impacts

The Brazilian Amazon is uniquely key to the Earth’s climate

In cooler confines some days later, at an international climate conference in Argentina, British scientists told of a different, slow-motion kind of chemistry in the tropical forest, one foreseen by supercomputers running intricately programmed models of global warming.

“In the Amazon, the vegetation dies back because there won’t be enough rain,” explained climatologist Vicky Pope, detailing one of the most sophisticated studies yet — by Britain’s Hadley Centre — of what a warmer world would mean.

For South America’s rain forests, such a “dieback” would mean steady decomposition of dead vegetation and the release into the atmosphere of massive amounts of carbon dioxide, the “greenhouse gas” that itself is blamed for much of climate change.

1,700 researchers at work

Whether it unfolds quickly by fire or slowly through global warming, the future of this forested river basin is a key to the future of Earth’s climate. Hundreds of scientists are working overtime to understand that critical relationship — between the atmosphere and the region known as Amazonia, more than 11 times the size of Texas and home to one-third of the world’s species.

“Scientifically, we’re not 100 percent confident we know all the processes,” said Brazilian physicist Paulo Artaxo, who has studied the Amazon for 20 years. “There are thousands of different critical effects. There’s much more scientific work that needs to be done.”

Artaxo is a lead scientist among 1,700 researchers, from 200 universities and other institutions, who have joined during the past six years in an unprecedented undertaking called “LBA” — for Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia — a Brazilian-U.S.-European scientific assault on the unknowns of what some call the planet’s “lung,” the Amazon’s breathing green vastness.

The respiratory process is well known: Trees absorb carbon dioxide through their leaves, use it to build themselves, and emit oxygen into the air.

That keeps an atmospheric balance, but industrialized man has thrown the balance off by burning fossil fuels and producing excess carbon dioxide, which traps heat that otherwise would escape into space.

Most scientists believe the 1-degree-Fahrenheit rise in global temperatures the past century was largely a result of those emissions, and they project higher temperatures and climate disruptions to come. The international pact called the Kyoto Protocol, a limited first step in trying to control emissions, takes effect on Feb. 16, though without participation of the United States, the biggest emitter, which maintains the emissions cutbacks would set back its economy too much.

Forest variables are many

The forest’s basic science may be well known. But the details are immensely complex — of soils and nutrients, evaporation and precipitation, rivers and lakes, gas flows and root systems, and of the hard numbers of deforestation, which pours carbon dioxide into the atmosphere at the same time that it kills off carbon-absorbing vegetation.

But whatever the unknowns, “we already know enough to make policy decisions. The important thing is to stop deforestation,” American ecologist Philip M. Fearnside told a reporter, as a tropical downpour beat on the roof of his institute in Manaus, the Amazon’s major riverside city.

Satellite reconnaissance showed that 600 fires were started in the region each day on average last year, the Brazilian government reports. The rate of destruction has almost doubled in the past decade, to 9,000 square miles over 12 months of 2003-2004 — an area about the size of New Hampshire.

The government’s own plans to pave 2,100 miles of additional road through the wilderness could lead to clearing of up to 70,000 square miles of forest over 30 years, it was estimated by Fearnside’s Amazon Environmental Research Institute.

Judging from experience, “paving increases the deforestation rate in a strip along the highway, to a depth of 50 kilometers” — 30 miles — “on each side,” said Fearnside, who has pioneered Amazon research for three decades.

What might this mean in a time of climate change?

Worldwide deforestation is now believed to contribute under 20 percent of manmade emissions of carbon dioxide, said Artaxo, of Brazil’s University of Sao Paulo. And the Amazon forest is believed to remain a “sink” — still absorbing slightly more carbon than it emits.

Reinforcing warming

For one thing, computer modeling foresees a warmer Pacific Ocean stirring more frequent and intense El Ninos, the climate phenomenon that tends to dry the eastern Amazon. Rising temperatures themselves would also help dry vegetation. In addition, deforested terrain sends less moisture — via plants’ “evapotranspiration” — into the air to fall as rain. Dead trees then add more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, further heightening warming in a destructive cycle.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a U.N.-organized science network, concluded in its latest assessment that the remaining Amazon “is threatened by the combination of human disturbance, increases in fire frequency and scale, and decreased precipitation from evapotranspiration loss, global warming, and El Nino.”

Much more remains to be learned, even including how much “biomass” an average acre contains in this highly diverse forest — a number crucial to knowing how much carbon a dying forest would release.

Deforestation leads to loss of biodiversity

First, global markets consume rainforest products that depend on sustainable harvesting: latex, cork, fruit, nuts, timber, fibers, spices, natural oils and resins, and medicines. In addition, the genetic diversity of tropical forests is basically the deepest end of the planetary gene pool. Hidden in the genes of plants, animals, fungi, and bacteria that have not even been discovered yet may be cures for cancer and other diseases or the key to improving the yield and nutritional quality of foods—which the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization says will be crucial for feeding the nearly ten billion people the Earth will likely need to support in coming decades. Finally, genetic diversity in the planetary gene pool is crucial for the resilience of all life on Earth to rare but catastrophic environmental events, such as meteor impacts or massive, sustained volcanism.

Deforestation causes global warming - releases 30% of total greenhouse gases

Deforestation causes irreversible loss of biodiversity – natural habitat is destroyed

Two groups of animals for which some statistics are available are birds and primates. It is thought that Amazonia harbors over 1,000 avian species: some 250 species of birds can be found in a single square kilometer of Amazonian forest. Studies in French Guiana (Thiollay, 1994) and Peru (Terborgh et al., 1990) indicate the number of individuals living in a square kilometer: 1,658 in French Guiana and 1,910 in Peru, respectively. The same calculations done previously for plants yield an estimate of 43 to 50 million individual birds affected by deforestation in that period. As for primates, which comprise fourteen genera in Amazonia, of which five are endemic, studies conducted in various subregions show that their density vary considerably (Peres and Dolman, 2000). If one applies the aforementioned calculations to the simian populations in Rondônia, Mato Grosso and Pará, the States most subjected to deforestation, where a square kilometer of forest could harbor between 35 and 81 individuals, one estimates between 914,550 and 2,116,530 individuals would have been wiped out.