Virtual intelligence
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- High-Tech Brutes
- Low-Tech Brains
| Emerging Threats. There are two aspects to the changing nature of the threat as we approach the 21 st century, and both merit brief discussion because the lack of knowledge among policymakers, and the mind-set inertia of the analysts supporting them, suggest that we are avoiding making significant changes to how we direct, collect, process, and analyze information, and this will continue to generate "intelligence failures". First, it is important to recognize the dramatic difference between the conventional threat that everyone has grown comfortable following since the end of World War II, and the emerging threats which we are not trained, equipped, or organized to identify and evaluate. The conventional threat has been governmental in nature, comprised of conventional and sometimes nuclear forces arrayed in a static order of battle, developing their capabilities linearly over time, fighting by known rules of engagement, with known doctrine, providing ample strategic warning of attack, and using known intelligence assets. The emerging threat is generally non-governmental, unconventional, dynamic or random in event initiation, non-linear in its development due to the availability of off-the-shelf equipment, fighting without any constraints or rules of engagement, with unknown doctrine, with no established indicators of attack, and with an unlimited fifth column. Second, it is important to reflect on how the emerging threats, looked at in a different manner, require a completely different form of "intelligence" as well as a completely different form of "defense" organization. High-Tech Brutes are the ones we understand, and are represented by the conventional powers. They practice medium and high intensity warfare, have as their source of power money, and rely on physical stealth and precision targeting of munitions for their effect. Low-Tech Brutes are the ones we are beginning to fear, and are represented by the transnational terrorist and criminal organizations. They practice low-intensity conflict, have as their source of power ruthlessness, and rely on natural stealth and random targeting for their effect. Low-Tech Brains are the "wild card" of history, and are presented by the Islamic Fundamentalists (who merit respect for their religious beliefs) and also cults (which do not merit religious status). They practice Jihad, have as their source of power ideology, and rely on mental stealth and mass targeting for their effect. Download 384.47 Kb. Share with your friends:
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