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- The economy will never completely rebound from the Great Recession
- Economic forecasts for the second half of 2014 are being cut
- Iraq conflict will negatively affect the US economy- the other team cant control
- Bad weather leads to economic decline
- Jobs K2 Economy
- Unemployment drags down the economy
Economy Low NowThe US economy will pop in 2017- growing debt will cause massive declinePapadimitriou 6/15 (Dimitri Papadimitriou, president of the Levy Economics Institute @ Bard College), "The coming 'tsunami of debt' and financial crisis in America", The Guardian, Accessed 6-28-14, The US Congressional Budget Office is projecting a continued economic recovery. So why look down the road – say, to 2017 – and worry? Here's why: because the debt held by American households is rising ominously. And unless our economic policies change, that debt balloon, powered by radical income inequality, is going to become the next bust. Our macro models at the Levy Economics Institute are showing that the US economy is about to face a repeat of pre-crisis-style, debt-led growth, based on increased borrowing. Falling government deficits are being replaced by rising debts on everyone else's ledgers – well, almost everyone else's. What's emerging is a new sort of speculative bubble, this time based on consumer and corporate credit. Right now, America is wrestling a three-headed monster of weak foreign demand, tight government budgets and high income inequality, with every sign that these conditions will continue. With that trio in place, the anticipated growth isn't going to be propelled by an export bonanza, or by a government investment boom. The economy will never completely rebound from the Great RecessionAppelbaum 6/11 (Binyamin Appelbaum), "U.S. Economic Recovery Looks Distant As Growth Stalls", The New York Times, Accessed 6-28-14, Recessions are always painful, but the Great Recession that ran from late 2007 to the middle of 2009 may have inflicted a new kind of pain: an era of slower growth. It has been five years since the official end of that severe economic downturn. The nation’s total annual output has moved substantially above the prerecession peak, but economic growth has averaged only about 2 percent a year, well below its historical average. Household incomes continue to stagnate, and millions of Americans still can’t find jobs. And a growing number of experts see evidence that the economy will never rebound completely. Economic forecasts for the second half of 2014 are being cutKurtz 6/16 (Annalyn Kurtz), "U.S. economy: Not looking so good", CNN Money, 6-16-14, Accessed 6-28-14, < http://money.cnn.com/2014/06/16/news/economy/imf-us-forecast/>. At the start of the year, economists were optimistic. Perhaps the economy would grow 3% this year, they said, instead of the measly 2% pace it's been stuck at for the prior three years. So much for that hopeful thinking. Half-way through the year, forecasts are being slashed. The latest Zorro move comes from the International Monetary Fund. The organization said Monday that the U.S. economy would only grow 2% this year, down from it earlier forecast of 2.8%. This comes on the heels of the World Bank announcement last week that it was cutting its prediction for the United States and the broader world economy. Many expect Federal Reserve policymakers to do the same downward revision when they meet this week.
Iraq conflict will negatively affect the US economy- the other team can't controlMatthews 6/26 (Chris Matthews), "Iraq conflict: could it sink the U.S. economy?", Fortune, Accessed 6-28-14, < http://fortune.com/2014/06/26/iraq-oil-us-economy/>. Any serious disruption to Iraq’s oil industry—which is the second largest in OPEC—could drive oil prices higher, potentially hurting the U.S. economic recovery. What could happen if the situation worsens? “If we see fighting spill into Baghdad … that could push the price of oil 10 or 15 dollars above current levels,” BofA’s Blanch says. If the conflict spreads even farther south of Baghdad, into the Shia South where most of the Iraqi oil is produced, however, that could be catastrophic for the country’s oil industry. “If those exports were to be disrupted, we could be talking about [oil prices] in the $160 range, and that’s a very dangerous level for the global economy.” A good rule of thumb is that an oil price increase of $10 per barrel could lead to a decrease in 0.2% of GDP. Such an increase in prices could conceivably plunge the U.S. back into recession. Bad weather leads to economic declineKurtz 6/16 (Annalyn Kurtz), "U.S. economy: Not looking so good", CNN Money, 6-16-14, Accessed 6-28-14, < http://money.cnn.com/2014/06/16/news/economy/imf-us-forecast/>. What went wrong? Blame it on the deep freeze that caused a very weak start to 2014. "In the early part of the year, as a harsh winter conspired with other factors... momentum faded in the U.S economy," the IMF said. Even though the economy is now starting to bounce back, the IMF doesn't believe the comeback will be strong enough to completely offset the terrible first quarter. Here's how bad the first quarter was: The data already show the economy contracted in the first quarter, but now it looks like that contraction was the deepest decline since the Great Recession. The housing market slowed, businesses invested less money in new equipment and buildings, and exports of American goods declined.
The economy is struggling now and jobs are keyElliot 14 (Larry Elliot, economics editor for the Guardian, in “US economy still struggling to recover” on 17 June 2014. http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2014/jun/16/us-economy-struggling-recover Accessed 27-6-14) Christine Lagarde, the French managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is downbeat about the United States – and with good reason. The problems of the eurozone have overshadowed America's difficulties, but the fact is that the world's biggest economy is still struggling to recover from the downturn of 2008-09. Explaining the lack of vim is simple. The US entered the recession with a number of structural weaknesses, and these have been aggravated rather than ameliorated by a long period of sub-par growth, according to the annual health check by the fund. There was much comment earlier this month when the employment data showed that the number of people with jobs was back to pre-recession levels. In truth, this was no great achievement since the population is steadily rising. The labour participation rate, which was on a declining trend even before the financial crisis, is more than three percentage points lower than it was a decade ago. A shortage of jobs creates two further problems. The slack in the labour market means it is hard for workers to secure pay rises. But the lack of a European-style welfare state means that those without work fall into poverty. The official poverty measure shows the number living below the breadline has increased by 50% to more than 45 million since the turn of the millennium. The IMF thinks the number in poverty could be closer to 50 million – around one in six of the population. With the fund estimating that America's trend rate of growth has fallen to 2%, this figure is likely to climb rather than fall. Unemployment drags down the economyStephen D. Simpson, CFA, ’14, “Macroeconomics: Unemployment,” Investopedia, http://www.investopedia.com/university/ macroeconomics/macroeconomics8.asp, Accessed 6/28/14 Labor is a driving force in every economy – wages paid for labor fuel consumer spending, and the output of labor is essential for companies. Likewise, unemployed workers represent wasted potential production within an economy. Consequently, unemployment is a significant concern within macroeconomics. "Official" unemployment refers to the number of civilian workers who are actively looking for work and not currently receiving wages. Given that official unemployment statistics specifically exclude those who would like to work but have become discouraged and ceased looking for employment, the true unemployment rate is always higher than the official rate. Directory: file -> view view -> Western Europe after wwii view -> Author study: paul fleischman view -> Qpa1 7ela study Guide view -> Arctic Oil/Gas Neg view -> November 1970 Approximately 150,000-500,000 deaths Bhola Cyclone Bangladesh view -> Grade Level: 6 Unit of Study: Caribbean glce view -> Citation: Duffield, Katy view -> Table of Contents Lesson # view -> Chinese Wind Energy Disad Download 0.89 Mb. Share with your friends:
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