AT Drones Bad Scenarios AT: AQAP

AT Drones Bad Scenarios

AT: AQAP

Fails

AQAP empirically fails at targeting attacks

AQAP initially enjoyed a degree of local support inside Saudi Arabia thanks to its declared goal of ridding the holy land of “infidel invaders”. But this support largely collapsed after the group committed a major blunder in November 2003 in Muhayya. AQAP attempted to reproduce the success of its first signature attack – detonating a vehicle in the centre of a residential compound. This time, however, the targeting went awry. Rather than slaughtering Western foreigners, the Muhayya incident mostly killed Arab Muslims. This immediately undermined AQAP’s message of protecting the Islamic community. While AQAP was to stumble on for several years, its waning local support, combined with the increasing efficacy of Saudi counter-terrorism policies, saw it ultimately flee Saudi Arabia south to Yemen and merge with a smaller AQ affiliate in 2009. While the group had managed to kill several hundred civilians during its time inside Saudi Arabia, it had completely failed to credibly challenge Saudi rule or remove outsiders from the country.

AQAP’s on the decline

Watts 15 (Clint,  Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, 2/4/15, Foreign Affairs, “Al Qaeda Loses Touch,” https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2015-02-04/al-qaeda-loses-touch, JHR)

If al Qaeda were a corporation today, it would be roughly equivalent to Microsoft: A big name but an aging brand, one now strikingly out of touch with the 18–35-year-old-demographic. The group made its way back into the headlines this past January, after its affiliate—al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP—took credit for a deadly attack on the Paris offices of the French magazineCharlie Hebdo. But the claim of responsibility came a week after the fact, and lacked the sort of insider accounts or video footage that typically accompany such announcements, leading some to conclude that al Qaeda may not have known about the attackers’ intentions. Put simply, al Qaeda’s traditionally preeminent position in the jihadi hierarchy, long on the wane, is slipping still further. U.S. officials, for their part, are increasingly focused on the Islamic State, or ISIS, which continues to deliver a steady flow of battlefield victories and brutal beheadings. Yet al Qaeda has a clear path back to contention: a dramatic follow-up to the Hebdo attack. And with the group’s need for a win so great, Washington would be mistaken to count it out. CONTROL KEY Al Qaeda’s latest chapter began with the death of Osama bin Laden in May 2011. Shortly thereafter, Ayman al-Zawahiri, bin Laden’s successor as al Qaeda’s global leader, found himself facing numerous constraints. Aggressive U.S.-led counterterrorism efforts, buoyed by a deadly drone campaign, forced top al Qaeda commanders into hiding, limiting Zawahiri’s ability to communicate with al Qaeda’s affiliates. Based in Pakistan rather than in Iraq, Zawahiri and his senior commanders lost touch with many fighters in Iraq. And with bin Laden dead, resources became tighter. Al Qaeda’s affiliates, which were now receiving less guidance and fewer resources from al Qaeda central, took on a new level of independence. Some four years later, al Qaeda is essentially a collection of relatively small, though still capable, affiliates.  AQAP, under the leadership of Nasir Wuhayshi, remained loyal to Zawahiri after bin Laden’s death. But with Zawahiri and al Qaeda’s senior leadership under siege from the drones in Pakistan, AQAP effectively became al Qaeda central. AQAP came close to executing three plots against Western targets, in 2009, 2010, and 2011. And it became the first affiliate to build its own insurgent force, Ansar al Sharia, which aimed to establish an Islamist emirate in Yemen. In Zawahiri’s absence, other affiliates began to look to AQAP for guidance. Among them was al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb or AQIM, which was making a separate push for an Islamic emirate in northern Africa. By the spring of 2012, AQAP had sent the group’s leaders two instructional letters, one in May and another in August, covering both tactics and strategy. AQAP further cemented its role by essentially creating its own affiliate, al Shabaab, in Somalia. Zawahiri confirmed al Shabaab’s membership in al Qaeda in February 2012, but evidence suggests that the group had little interaction with al Qaeda central. Omar Hammami, an American member of the group, noted in his biography that al Shabaab’s al Qaeda contacts came from Yemen rather than Pakistan. And even a senior al Shabaab leader, Sheikh Ali Muhamud Raage, seemed confused, at one time publicly stating that the group was joining AQAP. Al Qaeda central, meanwhile, has continued to struggle. In Pakistan, the U.S. drone program has kept Zawahiri tied down and led to an exodus of his senior deputies to Egypt, Libya, and Syria in search of refuge and new opportunities. Despite the overthrow of a democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood regime in Egypt—a confirmation of al Qaeda’s narrative—the group has failed to gain traction there. Its so-called Nasr cell, which has allegedly plotted various attacks in the country, was disrupted in 2013, and its operatives in the Sinai have suffered losses at the hands of the Egyptian military and an attrition of followers to ISIS.

Not a Threat

AQAP’s done – Wuhayshi’s death seals the deal

Mullen 15 (Jethro, writes and edits for CNN Digital out of Hong Kong with a focus on news in the Asia-Pacific region, 6/16/15, CNN, “Al Qaeda's second in command killed in Yemen strike; successor named,” http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/16/middleeast/yemen-aqap-leader-killed/, JHR)

(CNN)Al Qaeda's second in command, Nasir al-Wuhayshi, has been killed in a drone strike in Yemen, dealing a heavy setback to the leadership of the international terrorist group. Al-Wuhayshi was the top leader of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP, one of the most dangerous and dynamic branches of the jihadist network. His death is "the biggest blow against al Qaeda since the death of (Osama) bin Laden," said CNN terrorism analyst Paul Cruickshank. Al-Wuhayshi was al Qaeda's "leading light" and was one day expected to take over from its current global chief, Ayman al-Zawahiri, said Cruickshank. Two Yemeni security officials told CNN on Monday that al-Wuhayshi was killed Friday in a suspected U.S. drone strike in Yemen's Hadhramaut region.On Tuesday, AQAP released a video statement announcing that its leader and two aides had died. The speaker said that al-Wuhayshi would be succeeded by the group's military chief, Qasm al-Rimi, also known as Abu Hureira al-Sanaani. Opinion: A death trap for al Qaeda leaders? 'Leadership matters' The U.S. government confirmed al-Wuhayshi's fate Tuesday, calling his death "a major blow to (al Qaeda's) most dangerous affiliate and to al Qaeda more broadly." Al-Wuhayshi "was responsible for the deaths of innocent Yemenis and Westerners, including Americans," U.S. National Security Council spokesman Ned Price said. "While AQAP, al Qaeda and their affiliates will remain persistent in their efforts to threaten the United States, our partners and our interests, (al-Wuhayshi's) death removes from the battlefield an experienced terrorist leader and brings us closer to degrading and ultimately defeating those groups." Al-Wuhayshi, known as al Qaeda's crown prince, was a charismatic figure who was adored by many of the terrorist group's jihadist fighters. In a video that surfaced in April of last year, al-Wuhayshiappeared brazenly out in the open, greeting followers in Yemen, the impoverished nation that the organization uses as a base. In a speech to the group, he makes it clear that he's going after the United States, saying: "We must eliminate the cross. ... The bearer of the cross is America!" The video showed what looked like the largest and most dangerous gathering of al Qaeda in years. Al-Wuhayshi's death deprives al Qaeda of a dynamic heavyweight Successor seen as 'brains of the operation' Originally from Yemen, al-Wuhayshi assumed command of AQAP in 2009. He'd escaped a Yemeni prison in 2006 and had previously worked as a personal secretary for Osama bin Laden.

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