Atmospheric & Solar Oscillations With Linkage To The Earth’s Mean Temperature Trend: An Assessment In The Context Of Global Warming Debate
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In Figure 16, we see how well the USHCN version 2 temperatures changes with the TSI. In Figure 17, we take the Total Solar Irradiance and compare it to the ocean cycles and USHCN temperatures. Here we see again a very good correlation of solar irradiance and ocean warming and cooling cycles. Since these cycles related to frequency of El Nino and La Nina and global warming and cooling, the sun is a candidate for being the real driver for climate. The recent decline is solar is showing up in decline in the ocean warmth and now land temperatures much as we saw in the late 1950s and 1960s.
The Hoyt/Schatten TSI data set ran through 2005. Since then it has continued to decline and we are experiencing the longest solar cycle in at least 100 years. Longer cycles are usually indicative of a cooling sun. NASA has noted the solar wind is at the weakest levels of the satellite age and probably in at least 100 years. In 2008 we had the 4th most sunspotless days since 1849 with 265 days, in 2009, we had the 5th most with 260 days and a total this solar minimum at the end of 2009 of 770 days.
The Sun's Great Conveyor Belt has slowed to a record-low crawl, according to a press release by NASA solar physicist David Hathaway (NAS A press release 2006). "It's off the bottom of the charts," he said. "This has important repercussions for future solar activity." The Great Conveyor Belt is a massive circulating current of fire (hot plasma) within the Sun. Researchers believe the turning of the belt controls the sunspot cycle, and that's why the slowdown is important. "The slowdown we see now means that Solar Cycle 25, peaking around the year 2022, could be one of the weakest in centuries," Hathaway said. Livingston and Penn of the National Solar Observatory also have found the magnetic field has been weakening over the last few cycles at a rate that would if it continued, lead to no sunspots by around 2015. In addition, the sequence of the last 4 cycles bears a good resemblance to cycles 1 to 4 in the late 1700s and early 1800s which has some solar scientists predicting a similar solar minimum period. That fits with the solar cycle statistical model of Clilverd (2007) in figure 16 which projects a period like the Dalton minimum of the early 1800s. That era was characterized by broad global cooling (the time of Charles Dickens and his snowy London winters and with the help of Mt Tambora, 1816, the “Year Without a Summer”).
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