Implementation Mechanisms

Type(s) of GHG Reductions

Estimated GHG Reductions and Net Costs or Cost Savings

Data Sources:

Table 5.13 of a study done for the nine state DOTs involved with the Midwest Regional Rail Initiative computes total BTUs for the corridor under the build/no-build scenarios; working with those data, we can use the emissions factors by fuel type noted above to compute total projected CO2 emissions for Chicago-St. Louis:

Thus the annual CO2 pollution savings from bringing 110 mph service between Chicago and St. Louis is more than 65,800 metric tons. There are eight other major corridors in MWRRI, with the number of daily round-trips and mileage of each corridor being somewhat different. However, the Chicago-St. Louis corridor, at 285 miles and 8 daily round-trips, is typical of the major city-pairs in the MWRRI system. While the detailed BTU analysis shown above was not yet undertaken for these routes, a reasonable ballpark estimate would be to take the Chicago-St. Louis savings of 65,800 metric tons and simply multiply by the number of other corridors in the system – eight – for an annual total of 526,400 tons saved for the entire MWRRI.

SAIC, a consulting firm based in McLean, VA, published in September 2007 a study entitled, “Public Transportation’s Contribution to U.S. Greenhouse Gas Reduction.” The study reports that in 2005, public transportation reduced carbon dioxide pollution nationwide by 6.9 million metric tons, composed of two types of reductions:

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  Mode switching from single-occupancy personal vehicles to transit (3.9).
  
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  Gasoline savings from reduced congestion due to transit (3.0).
  

A June 2008 report written for the state of Oregon contains 2006 ridership statistics compiled by the Federal Transit Administration’s National Transit Database. Oregon then combined those statistics with data from the Texas Transportation Institute to develop a list of transit ridership in the top 39 “large” (between one and three million in population) and “very large” (greater than three million) cities in the nation in 2006 that had transit systems. The Midwest is barely represented, as shown below:

16. Minneapolis-St. Paul 73,356,649

23. Milwaukee 48,972,262

27. Detroit 37,281,540

Again quoting from the Rails-to-Trails Conservancy report mentioned above, two levels of annual investment are described: $330 million and $3 billion. These numbers are chosen to match assumed, eventual carbon dioxide per-ton prices of $10 and $30. At this level of spending, as mentioned above, the report suggests vehicle miles driven reductions of 70 billion and 200 billion, respectively.

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  Currently, we walk or bike for 31% of our trips of one mile or less; the “modest” and “substantial” scenarios mentioned above assume 40% and 70% usage of bikes and human power for trips less than a mile
  
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  Today, we bike/walk for 4% of our 1-3 mile trips; the report assumes “modest” and “substantial” percentages of 10% and 25%
  
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  The report assumes greatly improved “synergy” between biking/walking and access to public transportation; to wit:
  
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    the report assumes “modest” and “substantial” proportions of 5% and 15% public transit use for trips between 1-15 miles in length (compared to 2% today)
    
  • 
    suggested improvements in bike/pedestrian access to public transit will increase ridership by 10% (modest) and 30% (substantial)
    

With these assumptions clearly stated, we can now compute potential GHG reductions based on the report’s VMD reductions in the modest and substantial scenarios. The Midwest states of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and the Dakotas together constitute about 19% of the U.S. population, so we can extrapolate potential GHG savings based on reductions in national VMD for the two scenarios: 13.3 billion, and 38 billion. Using 22 mpg for the average personal vehicle, and 19.6 pounds of CO2 emitted, this translates into regionwide GHG reductions of 5.9 million and 16.2 million tons, respectively. An important caution here is that some of these reductions are clearly due to public transit ridership increases, not necessarily “pure” bicycle and pedestrian mode growth.

Therefore, the TOD adds roughly 11 people per acre on top of the 11 that would be expected. Out of the 521,000 people NIPC estimates could be in the TODs, half (11 out of 22) or 260,000 would live in the TODs who would not under a BAU scenario. http://www.nipc.org/planning/pdf/nipc_transit.pdf

According to the Denver Regional Council of Governments, TODs can reduce rates of greenhouse gas emissions by 2.5 to 3.7 short tons per year for each household. http://www.drcog.org/index.cfm?page=LearnaboutTOD

260,000/2.63= 98,859 households X 3.7 short tons GHGs reduce per household/year=365,778 short tons per year

Although rail transit is virtually non-existent anywhere else in Illinois, it could be added in the future, and TODs can happen around bus transit hubs. Metro Chicago comprised roughly ¾ of the state’s population. Assume another 15% of the population could take advantage of TODs. Using the same assumptions for metro Chicago = 52,000 people = 49,494 to 73,155 short tons per year.
Illinois statewide totals: 296,642 - 438,993 short tons per year
Short tons are then converted to metric tons by dividing the totals by 1.102 presenting a range for state wide total reductions in 2020 of 269,185 to 398,360 metric tons.”