1.Hillary Clinton won’t win in 2016- the democratic base prefers Bernie Sanders
The Daily Beast 2015- “This Is How Hillary Loses the Primary” July 9 http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/07/09/this-is-how-hillary-loses-the-primary.html
Something remarkable is happening in American politics. For the first time in our history, a socialist is running a close second and gaining ground on the front-runner in a presidential race.¶ Anyway you look at it, Senator Bernie Sanders is making history and may very well play a deciding role in who will be the next president. How real is the Sanders movement? Well, at this point in his campaign in 2007, Barack Obama had 180,000 donors on his way to setting records with low-donor contributions; Bernie Sanders has 250,000.¶ How’s he doing with voters in early states? “The next time Hillary Rodham Clinton visits New Hampshire, she need not look over her shoulder to find Bernie Sanders; the Vermont Senator is running right alongside her in a statistical dead heat for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, according to a CNN/WMUR poll,” wrote The New York Times on June 25.¶ But lest the Sanders surge in New Hampshire be dismissed as neighboring state advantage, the Clinton campaign seems even more worried about losing Iowa. In a carefully orchestrated bit of expectation lowering, Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook recently said, “the caucuses are always such a tough proving ground” and Clinton campaign spokeswoman Jennifer Palmeri said, “We are worried about [Sanders].”¶ Here’s what we know has happened so far in the Democratic primary for president. Since Hillary Clinton started spending money, hiring staff and campaigning, she has lost votes. In Iowa and New Hampshire, she was doing better in the polls in January than she is today. Heck, she had more votes last month than she has today.¶ Politics is about trends and the one thing we know is that trends escalate in speed as elections near. Even starting out with the huge lead that she did, Clinton can’t allow Sanders to keep gaining votes while she loses votes in the hope that the bleeding won’t be fatal in the long run.¶ Thinking that little tricks like getting an “organizer” to introduce the candidate at a rally will change an image built over four decades in politics is like McDonald’s thinking they can take on Starbucks because they now sell espresso.¶ So far Clinton’s approach has been to try to demonstrate to the element of the party that finds Sanders so appealing that she is really one of them. This seems like an extremely flawed strategy that plays directly to Sanders’s strengths. If the contest is going to come down to who can be the most pure liberal, the best bet is on the guy who actually is a socialist. Particularly when running against someone with Hillary Clinton’s long record of being everything that the current left of her party hates.¶ The truth is, Hillary Clinton has supported every U.S. war since Vietnam. She supported not only DOMA, which her husband signed, but a travel ban on those who were HIV positive. She supported welfare cuts (remember her husband’s efforts toward “ending welfare as we know it”?). She supports the death penalty and campaigned in her husband’s place during the 1992 New Hampshire primary when he left to oversee the execution of an African-American man whose suicide attempt left him brain damaged.
Extend the 1NC link evidence- the plan is unpopular with voters, makes Hillary Clinton lose
That’s good- Hillary Clinton will sabotage progress on Iran- she’s suspicious of their intentions
NEW YORK TIMES 2015 - New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/04/02/saying-the-onus-is-on-iran-hillary-clinton-calls-nuclear-framework-an-important-step, April 2
Mrs. Clinton, who is all but certain to seek the presidency in 2016, said she supported the Obama administration in trying, between now and June, to achieve a deal that “verifiably cuts off all of Iran’s paths to a nuclear weapon, imposes an intrusive inspection program with no sites off limits, extends breakout time, and spells out clear and overwhelming consequences for violations.”¶ “The onus is on Iran and the bar must be set high,” she said.¶ “It can never be permitted to acquire a nuclear weapon. It is also vital that these efforts be part of a comprehensive strategy to check Iran’s regional ambitions, defend our allies and partners and reinforce American leadership in the Middle East.”¶ Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has repeatedly criticized the negotiations to curtail Iran’s nuclear program as ineffective, and on Wednesday he said that a deal would “threaten the survival” of Israel.¶ Mrs. Clinton, who was secretary of state under Mr. Obama when the seeds of the Iran negotiations began, has been measured in discussing them publicly over the last 18 months, supporting the administration but also sounding a note of caution about whether Iran would honor a deal.
A Clinton presidency causes economic decline- her policy proposals are too outmoded
National Review 2015 - “Hillary Clinton’s Economic Policy Ideas Belong in 1947” July 17 , http://www.nationalreview.com/article/421301/hillary-clinton-economic-policy-ideas-outdated
But laced throughout the sterile verbiage is an assumption that was more widely shared by policy elites and ordinary American voters in 1947, the year Hillary Clinton was born, than it is today, 68 years later. That is the assumption that government is capable of solving just about every problem. You can understand why that confidence was strong in Clinton’s early years. The United States had just won a world war and was facing not the widely predicted resumption of the Depression of the 1930s but the surging postwar prosperity that is still fondly remembered by many. “We must drive steady income growth,” Clinton said, as if that were as simple as popping those new automatic-transmission shift levers into D. “Let’s build those faster broadband networks,” which private firms were building until Barack Obama demanded an FCC network-neutrality ruling. We must provide “quality, affordable childcare,” as if government were good at this. “Other trends need to change,” Clinton said, including “quarterly capitalism,” stock buybacks, and “cut-and-run shareholders who act more like old-school corporate raiders.” This sounds like a call to return to the behavior of dominant big businesses in the early postwar years, when they worked in tandem with big government and big labor — and faced little foreign competition or market discipline. As for new growing businesses, Clinton hailed the “on-demand or so-called gig economy,” but said it raises “hard questions about workplace protections and what a good job will look like in the future.” She endorsed the Obama extension of overtime to $50,000-plus employees and said, “We have to get serious about supporting union workers.” America In other words, let’s try to slam the growing flexible economy into the straitjacket of the rigid regulations and the union contracts of half a century ago. Everybody should punch a time clock and work the same number of hours, in accordance with thousands of pages of detailed work rules. That template hasn’t produced much economic growth since the two postwar decades. But it would siphon a lot of money via union dues from the private sector to the Democratic party. On top of that, Clinton would expand paid family days, mandate more sick leave, increase overtime pay, and raise the minimum wage even higher — measures that would tend to subsidize or produce non-work in an economy that has the lowest work-force participation in nearly 40 years. She would make “investments in cleaner renewable energy” — Solyndra? — and spend billions on universal pre-kindergarten, even though researchers (including the Obama administration’s Department of Health and Human Services) say it has no lasting benefit.
Lasting economic growth is necessary to prevent a nuclear war
Mead 2009 (Walter Russell Mead, Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. The New Republic, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2)
So far, such half-hearted experiments not only have failed to work; they have left the societies that have tried them in a progressively worse position, farther behind the front-runners as time goes by. Argentina has lost ground to Chile; Russian development has fallen farther behind that of the Baltic states and Central Europe. Frequently, the crisis has weakened the power of the merchants, industrialists, financiers, and professionals who want to develop a liberal capitalist society integrated into the world. Crisis can also strengthen the hand of religious extremists, populist radicals, or authoritarian traditionalists who are determined to resist liberal capitalist society for a variety of reasons. Meanwhile, the companies and banks based in these societies are often less established and more vulnerable to the consequences of a financial crisis than more established firms in wealthier societies. As a result, developing countries and countries where capitalism has relatively recent and shallow roots tend to suffer greater economic and political damage when crisis strikes--as, inevitably, it does. And, consequently, financial crises often reinforce rather than challenge the global distribution of power and wealth. This may be happening yet again. None of which means that we can just sit back and enjoy the recession. History may suggest that financial crises actually help capitalist great powers maintain their leads--but it has other, less reassuring messages as well.If financial crises have been a normal part of life during the 300-year rise of the liberal capitalist system under the Anglophone powers, so has war. The wars of the League of Augsburg and the Spanish Succession; the Seven Years War; the American Revolution; the Napoleonic Wars; the two World Wars; the cold war: The list of wars is almost as long as the list of financial crises. Bad economic times can breed wars. Europe was a pretty peaceful place in 1928, but the Depression poisoned German public opinion and helped bring Adolf Hitler to power. If the current crisis turns into a depression, what rough beasts might start slouching toward Moscow, Karachi, Beijing, or New Delhi to be born? The United States may not, yet, decline, but, if we can't get the world economy back on track, we may still have to fight.
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