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Northwestern Debate Institute

2011 File Title



***SPACE WEAPONIZATION GOOD*** 2

Uniqueness --- China Weaponization Now 3

Uniqueness --- Space Weaponization Now 10

Uniqueness --- China Rivaling US Now 12

SMIL Good --- Accidental Launch 14

SMIL Good --- China 15

SMIL Good --- Deterrence 22

SMIL Good --- Hegemony Module 23

SMIL Good --- Economy 28

Hegemony Link Extensions 29

SMIL Good --- Soft Power 30

SMIL Good --- Space Arms Races 31

SMIL Good --- Space Dominance 34

SMIL Good --- Stability 39

SMIL Good --- Terrorism 41

SMIL Good --- Warfighting 42

A2 Aggression 47

A2 Commerce 48

A2 Conventional Arms Races 49

A2 Conventional Warfare 50

A2 Destabilizing 52

A2 Expensive 53

A2 International Backlash 54

A2 Miscalculation 55

A2 No Technology 56

A2 Space Debris 58



**SPACE WEAPONIZATION BAD** 59

Uniqueness --- No Weaponization Now 60

Uniqueness --- Not Inevitable 62

Uniqueness --- Space Leadership High Now 66

Uniqueness --- No Space Threats Now 67

A2 Iran Threat 70

A2 North Korea Threat 71

SMIL Bad – Laundry List 72

SMIL Bad – Accidental Launch 1NC 73

Accidental Launch 2NC --- Link Extension 74

Accidental Launch 2NC --- Nuclear War 76

Accidental Launch 2NC – Russia Miscalc 77

SMIL Bad --- China War 1NC 78

China War 2NC --- Arms Race 79

SMIL Bad --- Colonization 81

SMIL Bad – Deterrence 82

SMIL Bad --- Economy 1NC 83

Economy 2NC --- Link Extensions 85

Economy 2NC --- War 86

SMIL Bad --- Hegemony 1NC 88

Hegemony 2NC --- Link Extension 89

Hegemony 2NC --- Trades Off With Military 91

SMIL Bad --- Indo-Pak War 1NC 92

Indo-Pak War 2NC --- Turns Case 93

Indo-Pak War 2NC --- Extinction 94

SMIL Bad --- Preemptive Strike 95

SMIL Bad --- Proliferation 1NC 96

Proliferation 2NC --- Link Extension 97

SMIL Bad – Relations 98

MIL Bad --- Space Arms Race 1NC 99

SMIL Bad --- Russia War 100

Space Arms Race 2NC --- Link Extension 101

Space Arms Race 2NC --- US Spillover 102

SMIL Bad --- Russia Weaponization 1NC 105

SMIL Bad --- Satellite Attack 1NC 106

SMIL Bad --- Satellite Industry 1NC 107

Satellites 2NC --- Link Extension 109

Satellites 2NC –-- Key to Economy 110

Satellites 2NC --- Key to Military 111

SMIL Bad --- Space Debris 1NC 112

Space Debris 2NC --- ASATs 113

Space Debris 2NC --- GPS Key to Economy 114

Space Debris 2NC --- Hurts GPS 116

Space Debris 2NC --- Hurts Satellites 117

Space Debris 2NC --- Link Extension 118

Space Debris 2NC --- Turns Case 119

SMIL Bad – Space Industry 1NC 120

Space Industry 2NC --- Link Extension 122

Space Industry 2NC --- Key to Economy 124

SMIL Bad --- Terrorism 125

Link --- H-3 126

Link --- Missile Defense 127

Link --- Privatization 129

Link --- Satellites 131

Link --- SSA 132

Link --- SSP 133

Alternatives to Space Weapons 135

SMIL Bad --- No Solvency 137

SMIL Bad --- Space Weapons Vulnerable 148

International Community Hates Weapons 153

Impact Calc --- Probability 154

Commercialization Checks Weaponization 155

A2 Space Weapons Illegal 156

US conventional military checks space race 157



***UNIQUENESS COUNTERPLAN*** 158

UQ CP 1NC 159

AT: current treaties solve space weaponization 162

Extensions china co op solvency 164

Extentions for china co op solvency specific for SBMD 167

Ban on Space Weapons Good 168

AT: Cheating 169

AT: countries wouldn’t support the bans/ treaties would fail 173

CP solves conventional heg 177

AT: Space weaponization deters arms race and conflict/ CP solves better 179

CP solvency- would protect satellites 180

CP solvency miscalc/ Arms race 181

CP key to prevent environment impacts form space weaponization 183

CP solves China Russia relations and arms race 184

CP solvency general prevention of space weponization 186

Space law good 190

AT: Tellis 191

More CoC 194





***SPACE WEAPONIZATION GOOD***

Uniqueness --- China Weaponization Now

China perceptions- china believes we are militarizing now


Hui 05 (Zhang Hui is a research associate at the Project on Managing the Atom of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. His research includes nuclear arms control verification techniques, the control of fissile material, nuclear terrorism, nuclear safeguards, nonproliferation and space. An extended version of this paper was produced for the, Space Weaponization And Space Security: A Chinese Perspective, www.wsichina.org/attach/CS2_3.pdf)
American Academy of Arts and Sciences project, Reconsidering the Rules of Space
China has seen much evidence to suggest the movement by the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush toward space weaponization is real. A number of U.S. military planning documents issued in recent years reveal the intention to control space by military means. In practice, the United States is pursuing a number of research programs to enable the development of space weapons, which could be used not only to attack ballistic missiles in flight but also to attack satellites and targets anywhere on Earth. Chinese officials have expressed a growing concern that U.S. plans would stimulate a costly and destabilizing arms race in space and on Earth, with disastrous effects on international security and the peaceful use of outer space. This would not benefit any country's security interests. Beijing believes the most effective way to secure space assets would be to agree on an international ban on weapons in space.
In what follows, I first examine briefly why China says NO to U.S. space weaponization. I then explore in detail preventative measures that can be taken.


china space weponization now-


O'Hanlon 11(senior fellow in Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, where he specializes in U.S. defense strategy and budgeting, homeland security, Northeast Asian security, and humanitarian intervention. He is also adjunct professor at the public policy school of Columbia University, a visiting lecturer at Princeton University, and a member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the Council on Foreign Relations."[1], Balancing U.S. Security Interests in Space)
And of course, not all countries that publicly oppose putting weapons in space are true to their rhetoric in practice. The People's Republic of China (PRC) is the most notable example, with its early 2007 ASAT test destroying an old PRC weather satellite, increasing low Earth orbit space debris by 10 percent and shattering an effective moratorium on the testing of ASAT systems that was more than two decades old. In fairness to Beijing, it could be argued that it had a right to "catch up" with the United States— not only with the ASAT technology the Pentagon had developed in the 1970s and 1980s, but also with latent modern ASAT capabilities in the form of American ballistic missile defense systems. That said, it was China and only China that ended the effective international moratorium on actual testing of antisatellite systems, and it was the PRC that chose to take actions at blatant odds with its own official negotiating position in international talks over space weaponry. The point of this assessment is not to vilify China's behavior; in fact, in many ways, such a demonstration of capability is consistent with how a rising power historically would be expected to handle such a situation. Its behavior fits squarely within the trajectory that realists at least would predict. That is true even if it may have reflected poor coordination and communications within the PRC government (since the blow to China's international image may not be offset by the acquisition of useful new capabilities).7 But whatever one's views on that point, China's ASAT test would seem to reaffirm that the United States must fashion its military space policy based more on a hardheaded assessment of capabilities and potential capabilities than on ideological positions, be they of the pro–arms control or pro–space weaponization variety.

China modernizing now


Zhang 11 – Baohui Zhang is Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Center for Asia Pacific Studies at Lingnan University, Hong Kong, March/April 2011, "The Security Dilemma in the U.S.-China Military Space Relationship: The Prospects for Arms Control,” Asian Survey, Volume 51, No. 2, pp. 314-316

Chinese strategists certainly perceive the U.S. quest for space dominance as damaging to China’s national security; whoever controls space will have the edge in winning the next war. Indeed, Chinese military and civilian strategists argue that the U.S. search for “absolute security” jeopardizes other countries’ security. It is widely reported in Chinese military literature that the U.S. has already developed and is in fact implementing a master plan for military dominance in space. The challenge for China is to prevent the U.S. from jumping too far ahead. As observed by a major study organized by the General Staff of the PLA, “In recent decades the U.S. has been consistently pursuing dominance in space in order to become its overlord.” 18 also points out that the U.S. is the first country to develop a full set of doctrines for space militarization and dominance:

In April 1998, the U.S. Space Command published its long-term strategic development plan, Vision for 2020, which specifically proposed the concept of space dominance and revealed the goals of allowing the American military to use space weapons to attack the enemy’s land, sea, air, and space targets. World opinion believes this represented the formal debut of U.S. space war theory and indicated an important first step by the U.S. military toward space war. 19

Li Daguang, one of the most influential PLA experts on space war, also alleges that the U.S. has initiated “a new space war” to maintain its status as “the overlord of space.” He claims that the ultimate goal of the U.S. space program is to “build a powerful military empire in outer space that attempts to include any space between earth and moon under American jurisdiction.” Under this empire, “without U.S. permission, any country, including even its allies, will not be able to use outer space for military or other purposes.” 20

One particular concern for the Chinese military is that the U.S. may no longer be content with merely militarizing space, which involves extensive use of satellites for military operations. Instead, weaponization of space is on the agenda. The PLA now believes that the U.S. is on the verge of important breakthroughs in the development of weapons for space war. As one study claims: “Currently, the U.S. military already possesses or will soon possess ASAT technologies with real combat capabilities, such as aircraft-launched ASAT missiles, land-based laser ASAT weapons, and space-based energy ASAT weapons.” 21 Moreover, the PLA suggests that the U.S. is trying to acquire space-based weapons to attack targets on earth:

The U.S. military is developing orbital bombers, which fly on low altitude orbits, and when given combat orders, will re-enter the atmosphere and attack ground targets. This kind of weapon has high accuracy and stealth capability, and is able to launch sudden strikes. These capabilities make it impossible for enemies to defend against. Orbital bombers thus can strike at any target anywhere on the planet. It is the major means for the U.S. military to perform global combat in the 21st century. 2


China militarizing—reacting to US dominance


Zhang 11 – Baohui Zhang is Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Center for Asia Pacific Studies at Lingnan University, Hong Kong, March/April 2011, "The Security Dilemma in the U.S.-China Military Space Relationship: The Prospects for Arms Control,” Asian Survey, Volume 51, No. 2, pp. 314-316

Chinese strategists certainly perceive the U.S. quest for space dominance as damaging to China’s national security; whoever controls space will have the edge in winning the next war. Indeed, Chinese military and civilian strategists argue that the U.S. search for “absolute security” jeopardizes other countries’ security. It is widely reported in Chinese military literature that the U.S. has already developed and is in fact implementing a master plan for military dominance in space. The challenge for China is to prevent the U.S. from jumping too far ahead. As observed by a major study organized by the General Staff of the PLA, “In recent decades the U.S. has been consistently pursuing dominance in space in order to become its overlord.” 18 also points out that the U.S. is the first country to develop a full set of doctrines for space militarization and dominance:

In April 1998, the U.S. Space Command published its long-term strategic development plan, Vision for 2020, which specifically proposed the concept of space dominance and revealed the goals of allowing the American military to use space weapons to attack the enemy’s land, sea, air, and space targets. World opinion believes this represented the formal debut of U.S. space war theory and indicated an important first step by the U.S. military toward space war. 19

Li Daguang, one of the most influential PLA experts on space war, also alleges that the U.S. has initiated “a new space war” to maintain its status as “the overlord of space.” He claims that the ultimate goal of the U.S. space program is to “build a powerful military empire in outer space that attempts to include any space between earth and moon under American jurisdiction.” Under this empire, “without U.S. permission, any country, including even its allies, will not be able to use outer space for military or other purposes.” 20

One particular concern for the Chinese military is that the U.S. may no longer be content with merely militarizing space, which involves extensive use of satellites for military operations. Instead, weaponization of space is on the agenda. The PLA now believes that the U.S. is on the verge of important breakthroughs in the development of weapons for space war. As one study claims: “Currently, the U.S. military already possesses or will soon possess ASAT technologies with real combat capabilities, such as aircraft-launched ASAT missiles, land-based laser ASAT weapons, and space-based energy ASAT weapons.” 21 Moreover, the PLA suggests that the U.S. is trying to acquire space-based weapons to attack targets on earth:

The U.S. military is developing orbital bombers, which fly on low altitude orbits, and when given combat orders, will re-enter the atmosphere and attack ground targets. This kind of weapon has high accuracy and stealth capability, and is able to launch sudden strikes. These capabilities make it impossible for enemies to defend against. Orbital bombers thus can strike at any target anywhere on the planet. It is the major means for the U.S. military to perform global combat in the 21st century. 2

China pressed for time—militarizing space as quickly as possible


Zhang 11 – Baohui Zhang is Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Center for Asia Pacific Studies at Lingnan University, Hong Kong, March/April 2011, "The Security Dilemma in the U.S.-China Military Space Relationship: The Prospects for Arms Control,” Asian Survey, Volume 51, No. 2, pp. 318

Another driver of the PLA’s efforts to counter U.S. dominance in space is the time factor. There is a genuine sense of urgency about controlling the commanding heights in space. The U.S. is seen as already possessing a decisive lead in the race toward space hegemony. As observed by Lieutenant General Ge Dongsheng, vice president of the PLA Academy of Military Sciences:

Establishing space capability is not only important but also urgent. This is due to the fact that the U.S. and Russia have already taken the steps and now enjoy a vast lead over us. Even India, Japan, and European countries have ambitious plans to develop their own space capabilities. Under this situation, if we do not hasten implementing our own plan, there will be the possibility of having to face a generational gap in space capabilities. 2

Misperceptions of the US triggers Chinese space militarization


Zhang 11 – Baohui Zhang is Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Center for Asia Pacific Studies at Lingnan University, Hong Kong, March/April 2011, "The Security Dilemma in the U.S.-China Military Space Relationship: The Prospects for Arms Control,” Asian Survey, Volume 51, No. 2, pp. 314-316

T HE S E CURI T Y DI LEMMA AND CHI NA’S MI L I TARY S PACE AGE NDA Although many U.S. experts are correct in emphasizing the importance of space war in China’s asymmetric strategy to counter U.S. conventional advantages, this article suggests that China’s military space agenda is also driven by the security dilemma between the two countries. China is pursuing military capabilities in space to counter perceived national security threats posed by the U.S. quest for space dominance and missile defense that could neutralize China’s nuclear deterrence.

In both cases, Chinese security experts believe that the U.S. seeks “absolute security” in order to maximize protection for the American population from external threats. 9 This means that China at least recognizes the defensive motivations behind the U.S. quest for space dominance and missile defense. However, with the chaotic nature of international relations, one country’s efforts to maximize its security could degrade the security of others by changing the balance of power. Inevitably, the U.S. quest for “absolute security” evokes countermeasures from other countries. As Kenneth Waltz observes, when a great power seeks superiority, others will respond in kind, since “maintaining status quo is the minimum goal of any great power.” 10

According to Robert Jervis, “The heart of the security dilemma argument is that an increase in one state’s security can make others less secure, not because of misperceptions or imagined hostility, but because of the anarchic context of international relations.” In this context, “Even if they can be certain that the current intentions of other states are benign, they can neither neglect the possibility that the others will become aggressive in the future nor credibly guarantee that they themselves will remain peaceful.” 11 Inevitably, when one state seeks to expand its military capability, others have to take similar measures.

DE NYI NG T HE U.S .QUE S T F OR S PACE DOMI NANCE The first factor that caused the security dilemma in the Sino-U.S. military space relationship is the professed American quest for space dominance. This quest is a reflection of the U.S. obsession with primacy that predates the Obama administration. The primacy strategy demands undisputed military dominance in different areas, including space, to ensure the best possible protection of U.S. national security. The U.S. is the only country in the world that has articulated a coherent national strategy for space dominance. As emphasized by Michael W. Wynne, former Air Force secretary, “America’s domination of the space domain provides an unrivaled advantage for our nation and remains critical to creating the strategic and tactical conditions for victory.” 12

The U.S. is the leader in the militarization of space. It was the first country that established a dedicated command, the U.S. Space Command, to unify military operations in space. In fact, as its Vision for 2020 proclaims, the Space Command seeks to achieve “full spectrum dominance” in space. 13 Furthermore, it envisions permanent dominance in the military dimension of space operations: “Today, the U.S. is the preeminent military space power. Our vision is one of maintaining that preeminence—providing a solid foundation for our national security.”14

General Lance W. Lord, former commander, Air Force Space Command, points out the importance of space dominance: “Space superiority is the future of warfare. We cannot win a war without controlling the high ground, and the high ground is space.” 15 In December 2007, the U.S. Air Force released a White Paper called The Nation’s Guardians: America’s 21st Century Air Force, in which General T. Michael Moseley made a similar statement: “No future war will be won without air, space and cyberspace superiority”; thus, “the Air Force must attain cross-domain dominance. Cross-domain dominance is the freedom to attack and the freedom from attack in and through the atmosphere, space and electromagnetic spectrum.” 16



This strategy of space dominance, however, generates the classic security dilemma between the U.S. and other countries. Although the U.S. may be motivated by defensive purposes, such as shielding the American population from nuclear weapons and other threats, other countries have to assume the worst in an anarchic world. As observed by Joan Johnson-Freese, “I would argue that the rest of the world accepts U.S. space supremacy. What the Bush Administration claims is space dominance, and that’s what the rest of the world won’t accept.” 17

China weaponizing space now


Foster 7/13 – Peter Foster, China Correspondent for the Telegraph, July 13, 2011, “China increasing military use of space with new satellites,” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8632219/China-increasing-military-use-of-space-with-new-satellites.html

The assessment of China's growing space capabilities to be published in the Journal of Strategic Studies deepens concerns that China, which has long promised a "peaceful rise", is now developing a worrying array of offensive weapons technologies.

It comes as China's first aircraft carrier, the 60,000-ton refitted Ukrainian vessel Varyag, prepares is to undergo sea trials within weeks, according to report in China's state-run China Daily newspaper on Tuesday.

China's People's Liberation Army has invested heavily in modernisation in recent years, developing an aircraft carrier, a prototype stealth fighter, the J20, and the Dong Feng-21D missile that could sink US carriers at 1,000 mile range.

"China's constellation of satellites is transitioning from the limited ability to collect general strategic information, into a new era in which it will be able to support tactical operations as they happen," said the article seen by the Reuters news agency.

"The most immediate and strategically disquieting application [of reconnaissance satellites] is a targeting and tracking capability in support of the anti-ship ballistic missile, which could hit U.S. carrier groups," it added.

The report, published in the week that the US launched its space shuttle for the last time, noted that China had made massive advances over the last decade, moving from almost zero real-time surveillance capability to virtual parity with the US.

"China may already be able to match the United States' ability to image a known, stationary target and will likely surpass it in the flurry of launches planned for the next two years," said the analysis by researchers from the World Security Institute, a Washington-based think-tank.

Most military analysts agree that it will be many decades before China can match US ability to project hard power, however in the last year the US defence secretary and senior US generals have begun to question openly China's motivation for developing such offensive capabilities.



China launching new offensive satellites now


UPI 2/8 – Space Daily, February 8, 2011, “U.S. wary of China space weapons,” http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/US_wary_of_China_space_weapons_999.html

Senior Pentagon officials are sounding concern over China's development of weapons designed to shoot down satellites or jam communication signals.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense for Space Policy Gregory Schulte said China's project was becoming a "matter of concern" for the United States.



Space, he told defense and intelligence officials while unveiling a 10-year strategy for security in space, "is no longer the preserves of the United States and the Soviet Union, at the time in which we could operate with impunity."

"There are more competitors, more countries that are launching satellites ... and we increasingly have to worry about countries developing counter-space capabilities that can be used against the peaceful use of space."

In 2007, China shot an obsolete weather satellite with a ground missile, creating so much space junk that crew members on the International Space Station had to change orbit to avert a collision last year.

Schulte said in his remarks that U.S. concerns had prompted U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates to seek to include space in stability talks being pursued with the Chinese.

The official said China's capabilities were going beyond shooting at spacecraft.

Beijing's counter-space activities include jamming satellite signals. It is also in the process of developing directed energy weapons that emit a disabling burst of energy toward a target rather than firing a projectile at it.

Other countries believed to be developing counter-space technology include Iran and Ethiopia.

China’s militarizing despite the guise of peaceful development


Maginnis 4/11 – Robert Maginnis, retired Army lieutenant colonel, and a national security and foreign affairs analyst for radio and television, April 11, 2011, “China Lies About Its Huge Military Buildup,” Human Events, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3827/is_20110411/ai_n57392735/pg_2/?tag=mantle_skin;content

Second, "The Chinese government advocated from the outset the peaceful of outer space, and opposes any tion of outer space," according to the paper.



China's anti-space weaponization hasn't stopped il from developing its own space weapon, however. The white makes no mention of China's 2007 successful direct-ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons test, which destroyed its own satellite in space. "The test raised questions about China's capability and intention to attack U.S. satellites," according to a Congressional Research Service (CRS) report.

The Pentagon's report states: "China continues to develop and refine this |ASAT] system, which is one component of a multidimensional program to limit or preven t the use of space-based assets by potential adversaries during times of crisis or conflict." The report also indicates China is developing kinetic and directed-energy weapons for ASAT missions.

Gen. Xu Qiliang, commander of China's air force, appears to confirm the Pentagon's analysis. He said in 2009 that military competition extending to space is "inevitable" and emphasized the transformation of China's air force into one that "integrates air and space" with both "offensive read ASAT] and defensive" capabilities, according to the Pentagon's report.

Yes Chinese space mil–they’ll control space


Bennett 10 – John T. Bennett, Defense News, January 13, 2010, “Chinese Buildup Of Cyber, Space Tools Worries U.S.”, 1-13,http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4452407&c=ASI&s=SEA

Senior U.S. officials told a House panel on Jan. 13 that China continues modernizing its missile, naval and fighter aircraft arsenals at a rapid rate, but they raised new concerns about the Asian giant's efforts to develop new offensive cyber and space assets.

"U.S. military and government networks and computer systems continue to be the target of intrusions that appear to have originated from within [the Peoples' Republic of China]," Adm. Robert Willard, U.S. Pacific Command chief, told the House Armed Services Committee. "Although most intrusions focus on exfiltrating data, the skills being demonstrated would also apply to wartime computer network attacks," he said.



Beijing shows no signs of slowing what Willard described as a decade-long "aggressive program of military modernization" tailored to "achieve campaign objectives across a broad spectrum of operations."

And increasingly, that includes new tools designed to project Chinese power across greater distances, striking American information networks, and developing what the Pentagon believes are offensive space systems, according to Willard and Wallace Gregson, assistant secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific security affairs.



China's Peoples' Liberation Army is making "significant strides" in developing cyberwarfare concepts that range from defending Chinese networks to conducting "offensive operations against adversary networks," Gregson told the committee.

The latter, he said, is seen by the Pentagon as part of a broader effort by Beijing "of developing an advanced information warfare capability to establish control of an adversary's information flow and maintain dominance of the battlespace."

While the officials testifying said it remains unclear if the Chinese military was behind attacks on U.S. networks that were launched from China, Gregson called such electronic strikes "consistent with authoritative PLA military writings on the subject." Beijing also is expanding its activities beyond the Earth's atmosphere, the U.S. officials told the lawmakers.



"We are seeing China's emergence as an international space power," Gregson said. "China is investing heavily in a broad range of military and dual-use space programs, including reconnaissance, navigation and timing, and communication satellites, as well as its manned program."

The PLA also is working on tools designed to deny potential foes the ability to use their own satellites, he said, via a "a robust and multidimensional counterspace program featuring direct ascent anti-satellite weapons, directed energy weapons and satellite communication jammers."

Gregson cited China's January 2007 satellite shot-down as an example of its "growing" ability to take out space systems.



The Asian power's cyber and space efforts are part of a broader military build-up Washington and the rest of the world contends remains behind Beijing's steel curtain of secrecy.

China is challenging the US military with space weapons now


Blanchard 7/11 – Ben Blanchard, Reuters staff writer, July 11, 2011, “REFILE-China ramps up military use of space with new satellites-report,” http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/12/china-satellites-idUSL3E7I902220110712

(Reuters) - China is developing cutting-edge satellites that will allow it to project power far beyond its shores and deter the United States from using aircraft carriers in any future conflict over its rival Taiwan, a report said.

The piece in October's Journal of Strategic Studies, a U.K.-published defence and security journal, runs at odds with China's stated opposition to the militarization of space.

But the report, an advance copy of which was obtained by Reuters, said that the rapid development of advanced reconnaissance satellites to enable China to track hostile forces in real time and guide ballistic missiles has become a key to the modernisation of its forces.



While the United States used to be unrivaled in this area, China is catching up fast, it added.

"China's constellation of satellites is transitioning from the limited ability to collect general strategic information, into a new era in which it will be able to support tactical operations as they happen," the report said.

"China may already be able to match the United States' ability to image a known, stationary target and will likely surpass it in the flurry of launches planned for the next two years."

Beijing has consistently denied it has anything other than peaceful plans for space and says its growing military spending and prowess are for defensive purposes and modernisation of outdated forces.

But with the recent unveiling of a stealth fighter, the expected launch of its first aircraft carriers and more aggressive posture over territorial disputes such as one in the South China Sea, Beijing has rattled nerves regionally and globally.

China's space program has come a long way since late leader Mao Zedong, who founded Communist China in 1949, lamented that the country could not even launch a potato into space.

Since then, it has launched men into orbit and brought them home, sent out its first lunar probe and begun longer-term programmes to explore Mars and establish a space station.

The successful missile "kill" of an old satellite in early 2007 represented a new level of ability for the Chinese military, and last year China successfully tested emerging technology aimed at destroying missiles in mid-air.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned earlier this year that advances by China's military in cyber and anti-satellite warfare technology could challenge the ability of U.S. forces to operate in the Pacific.

"STRATEGICALLY DISQUIETING"



China's need to use satellites to up its military game became apparent during the 1995-96 Taiwan Straits crisis, when the U.S. dispatched a carrier group after China menaced the self-ruled island with war games, the report said.

Beijing realised it could neither track nor respond to the U.S. ships. The incident also led China to realise it needed the means to keep Washington from using its navy to intervene in a war over Taiwan. Beijing regards the island as a rebel province.

"The most immediate and strategically disquieting application (of reconnaissance satellites) is a targeting and tracking capability in support of the anti-ship ballistic missile, which could hit U.S. carrier groups," the report said.

"But China's growing capability in space is not designed to support any single weapon; instead it is being developed as a dynamic system, applicable to other long-range platforms. With space as the backbone, China will be able to expand the range of its ability to apply force while preserving its policy of not establishing foreign military bases."



More broadly speaking, satellites will be able to help China project power.

"As China's capabilities grow, with space reconnaissance as an example, it will be increasingly hard to reconcile the rhetoric of a defensive posture and a more expansive capability."



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