Floods – From Risk to Opportunity



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Floods – From Risk to Opportunity iahs logo black(300 dpi)

Edited by Ali Chavoshian & Kuniyoshi Takeuchi

Co-edited by Xiaotao Cheng, Erich Plate, Slobodan Simonovic, Stefan Uhlenbrook & Nigel Wright

IAHS Publ. 357 (2013) ISBN 978-1-907161-35-3, 470 + x pp. Price £96.00


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The number of people exposed to devastating floods is expected to rise as the frequency of floods increases due to urbanization and population growth in flood-prone areas, land-use changes, climate change and sea level rise. A paradigm shift from focusing on emergency response and recovery to flood risk management is required to build the capacity necessary to cope with floods.

The process should be supported by vulnerability monitoring and development of tools such as standard measures of risk and preparedness in an integrated approach to improve capacity to deal with floods, taking advantage of their benefits while minimizing their social, economic and environmental risks.

This volume of papers selected from ICFM5 and by international authors, covers flood risk management, disaster management, forecasting and early warning, and management in different regions, and includes the ICFM5 statement.





Preface

With the frequency and variability of floods increasing due to urbanization, along with population growth in flood-prone areas, land-use changes, potential climate change and a rise in sea levels, the number of people exposed to devastating floods is expected to rise. Flood risk management actions are therefore increasingly required to build up the capacity necessary to cope with floods.

On 27–29 September 2011, the 5th International Conference on Flood Management (ICFM5) was held in Tokyo, Japan. More than 250 participants travelled to Tokyo from 41 nations to join about 200 other participants from Japan to attend the conference. ICFM is the only recurring international conference focused solely on flood-related issues. The umbrella title of ICFM5 was “Floods: From Risk to Opportunity”. In order to implement this concept, a paradigm shift is necessary from focusing on emergency response and recovery to flood risk management. This process should be supported by vulnerability monitoring and development of tools such as standards to measure risk and preparedness level in an integrated approach in order to build capacity for better response to floods by taking advantage of their benefits while at the same time minimizing their social, economic and environmental risks.

The ICFM5 Secretariat at the International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM) under the auspices of UNESCO received 417 abstracts covering all the announced topics. An international scientific committee reviewed all submitted abstracts for relevance to the ICFM5 objectives. Over 260 abstracts were selected for oral and poster presentation at the conference and authors of 130 selected abstracts were invited to submit their full papers in order to be considered for three post-conference publications, including this IAHS Red Book.

All submitted papers were peer-reviewed by external reviewers and the final 49 papers were selected for publication in this volume after they met all requirements made by reviewers. We know the other papers are a product of hard work with useful information and insights but had to limit the number of papers due to the publication capacity, and ask the authors for their understanding. The papers in this volume are published in five sections as follows:
–Section 1, with one introductory paper on Floods: From Risk to Opportunity and the ICFM5 Declaration

–Section 2, with 16 papers on Flood Risk Management (Prevention, Mitigation and Adaptation)

–Section 3 with 10 papers on Flood Disaster Management (Preparedness, Emergency Response and Recovery)

–Section 4 with 14 papers on Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Systems

–Section 5 with 8 papers on Flood Management in Different Climate Conditions and Geographic Zones
We would like to extend our great appreciation to all contributors to the success of ICFM5, with special thanks to the international scientific committee and co-editors of this publication for accepting our invitation to peer-review selected papers. Finally, we hope that this book promotes fruitful discussions on flood risk management and that outcomes will be soon put into practice to save more lives and livelihoods.
Editors-in-chief

Ali Chavoshian

Iran University of Science and Technology (IUST), Narmak 16846-13114, Tehran, Iran

and Member of Committee on Disaster Risk Management of WFEO, CTI Engineering, Japan
Kuniyoshi Takeuchi

International Center for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM), Tsukuba, Japan
Contents

Preface by Ali Chavoshian & Kuniyoshi Takeuchi

v

1

Introduction



Floods: From Risk to Opportunity Kuniyoshi Takeuchi & Ali Chavoshian

3

2



Flood Risk Management (Prevention, Mitigation and Adaptation)
The Delta programme in the Netherlands: a long-term perspective on flood risk management Jos Van Alphen

13

Life safety criteria for flood protection standards Joost V. L. Beckers,


Karin M. de Bruijn & Durk Riedstra

21

Flood risk management plans in Europe: experiences with their preparation and implementation William van Berkel & Jos Van Alphen

26

Gap analysis of the flood management system in Metro Manila, Philippines: a case study of the aftermath of Typhoon Ondoy Romeo Gilbuena, Jr, Akira Kawamura, Reynaldo Medina, Hideo Amaguchi & Naoko Nakagawa

32

A framework for flood impact assessment in urban areas Michael J. Hammond,


Albert S. Chen, David Butler, Slobodan Djordjević & Natasa Manojlović

41

Characteristics of flood disaster and evacuation activities of residents at Amami Oshima Island, Japan Akihiro Hashimoto, Akira Tai, Hideo Oshikawa & Toshimitsu Komatsu

48

A comprehensive assessment of multilayered safety in flood risk management – the Dordrecht case study Frauke Hoss, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman & Bob Maaskant

57

On the implementation of flood-plain management plans on the Herbert and Johnstone rivers, Australia Mark Jempson, Bruce Leach & David Trotter

66

The VNK2-project: a fully probabilistic risk analysis for all major levee systems in the Netherlands Ruben Jongejan, Bob Maaskant, Wouter Ter Horst, Fred Havinga,
Niels Roode & Harry Stefess

75

Optimal investment in emergency management in a multilayer flood risk framework


B. Kolen & M. Kok

86

Long-term channel changes in the Mekong River: towards sustainable river channel management Naoki Miyazawa

98

Risk assessment method for flood control planning considering global climate change in urban river management Masaru Morita

107


Risk sharing in practice for Integrated Flood Management Masahiko Murase

117


Prediction of the effect of huge structures on eco-hydrological changes in Changjiang Basin Tadanobu Nakayama & David Shankman

127



viii
Educational activities for urban flood damage reduction using unique facilities
Keiichi Toda, Taisuke Ishigaki, Yasuyuki Baba & Taira Ozaki

135


Creating new opportunities by integrating water safety and spatial planning
Ellen Tromp & F. H. M van de Ven

143


3

Flood Disaster Management (Preparedness, Emergency Response and Recovery)
Flash flood retention in headwater areas of the Natzschung River using small retarding basins Jens Bölscher, Achim Schulte, Christian Reinhardt & Robert Wenzel

153


The variability of ENSO and predictability of seasonal flooding: evidence from the Pacific Islands and Bangladesh Md. Rashed Chowdhury

166


Urban flooding management using the natural drainage system case study: Tehran, capital of Iran M. Ghahroudi Tali & M. A. Nezammahalleh

174


Multi-agent based flood evacuation simulation models considering the effect of congestion and obstructions on the pathway K. Hanajima, M. Nakashima, T. Hori &
D. Nohara

181


Research on rainstorm-induced flood risk assessment in China based on 1-km grid data Dapeng Huang, Renhe Zhang, Zhiguo Huo, Fei Mao & Youhao E.

190


Flood risk management in a cold climate – experience in Norway Linmei Nie,
Lars A. Roald, Sofie Mellegård & Čedo Maksimović

198


Performance of artificial wetland in removing contaminants from stormwater under tropical climate Mohd Noor Nur Asmaliza, M. S. Lariyah, A. Rozi & A. G. Aminuddin

208


Bed variation analysis using the sediment transport formula considering the effect of river width and cross-sectional form in the Ishikari River mouth Seiji Okamura, Kazunori Okabe & Shoji Fukuoka

217


Dealing with disasters: developing an integrated regional resilience strategy
Yazmin Seda-Sanabria, Enrique Matheu & Robert Stephan

225


Prediction of potential outburst floods from a glacial lake due to moraine dam failure Badri Bhakta Shrestha, Hajime Nakagawa, Kenji Kawaike, Yasuyuki Baba &
Hao Zhang

241


4

Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Systems

Impact of urbanization on flood vulnerability in shallow groundwater catchment
Amila P. Basnayaka, R. Sarukkalige & I. Werellagama

255


A decision support framework for flood risk assessment: an application to the Brahmaputra River in Bangladesh Mukand S. Babel, S. H. M. Fakhruddin &
Akiyuki Kawasaki

263


Rainfall–runoff modelling with data driven techniques: constraints and proper implementation Lekhangani Arunoda Basnayake & Vladan Babovic

273


The stochastic discharge forecast – creation, interpretation and other applications
Lucie Březková & Miloš Starý

283


Analysis of the “needs” of the users for the newly introduced X-Band MP (multi-parameter) radar N. Fujiwara, T. Yagami, N. Hashido, S. Moriyama, K. Araki &
Y. Yonese

292


Evaluation of flood discharge hydrographs and bed variations in a channel network on the Ota River delta, Japan T. Gotoh, S. Fukuoka & R. Tanaka

300


Ensemble short-term rainfall–runoff prediction and its application in urban flood risk mapping Ratih Indri Hapsari, Satoru Oishi, Kengo Sunada, Tetsuya Sano &
Dian Sisinggih

308


Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) in the Jajroud basin of Iran using a synoptic model Mahmoud Ahmadi, E. Fattahi & A. Noormohmmadi

320


Study on spatial-temporal distribution of rainstorm in China from 1961 to 2010
Fei Mao, Dapeng Huang, Renhe Zhang, Zhiguo Huo, E. Youhao & Huifei Jiang

328


Sequential data assimilation for streamflow forecasting using a distributed hydrologic model: particle filtering and ensemble Kalman filtering Seong Jin Noh,
Yasuto Tachikawa, Michiharu Shiiba & Sunmin Kim

341


Effect of density of gauges on accuracy of merged GSMAP: case study of typhoon Morakot G. Ozawa, H. Inomata & K. Fukami

350


Flood warnings for infrastructure: tailored flood warning services Frazer Rhodes

357


Roles of natural levees in the Ara River alluvial fan on flood management Shigeru Saito & S. Fukuoka

368


Transboundary cooperation in flood forecasting and warning services within the international Morava River basin Eva Soukalová

377


5

Flood Management in Different Climate Conditions and Geographic Zones
A methodology for rapid inundation mapping for a megacity with sparse data: case of Mumbai, India K. Gupta & V. Nikam

385


The next generation tsunami hazard map Makoto Hada, Hirokazu Nakamura &
Isamu Okaki

392


Assessment of rainstorm climate risk and rainstorm-induced agricultural disaster risk in east-central China Zhiguo Huo, Quanpei Wen, Zhenfeng Ma, Jingjing Xiao &
Lei Zhang

405


Review on Japanese assistance of community-based management for flood disaster Mikio Ishiwatari, Junko Mimaki & Tomoko Shaw

416


Knowledge transfer in international cooperation projects: experiences from a Dutch–Romanian project J. Vinke-de Kruijf, S. J. M. H. Hulscher & J. T. A. Bressers

423


Integrated flood evacuation simulator considering time–space distributions of flood risk Kazumi Matsuo, Lumen Natainia & Fumihiko Yamada

435


Flood early warning system: sensors and internet B. E. Pengel, V. V. Krzhizhanovskaya, N. B. Melnikova, G. S. Shirshov, A. R. Koelewijn, A. L. Pyayt & I. I. Mokhov

445


People-centred approach in integrated flood risk management in Lower Mekong Basin Aslam Perwaiz

454


Key word index

463


Author index

467
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Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Publ. 357, 2013), 3-10.


Floods: From Risk to Opportunity
KUNIYOSHI TAKEUCHI1 & ALI CHAVOSHIAN2,3

1 International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM) under the auspices of UNESCO, PWRI,
1-6 Minamihara, Tsukuba 305-8516, Japan


kuni.t@pwri.or.jp

2 Department of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology (IUST), Narmak 16846-13114, Tehran, Iran

3 Committee on Disaster Risk Management-World Federation of Engineering Organizations, CTI Engineering,
3-21-1 Nihonbashi, Tokyo 103-8430, Japan

Abstract “From risk to opportunity” implies that in facing risk, humanity has an ability not only to avoid it turning into a disaster, but also to use the threat as an opportunity to transform society into a higher level of sustainability. The means of transformation include increase of social capital in communities, promotion of development, both structural and non-structural, integrated with risk reduction and building resiliency. In the case of floods, this concept should be completed by best use of flood flows. In order to implement this concept, a paradigm shift is necessary from focusing on emergency response and recovery to risk management before disaster occurs. This process should be supported by vulnerability monitoring and development of tools such as standard scales for measuring risk and preparedness level in an integrated approach in order to build capacity for better response to floods by taking advantage of their benefits while at the same time minimizing their social, economic and environmental risks. This shift should be reflected in the post-Hyogo Framework for Action to start in 2015.

Key words disaster resiliency; flood risk management; IFM; risk to opportunity; sustainable society; standard scales of measuring risk and preparedness; social capital


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Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Publ. 357, 2013), 13-20.


The Delta programme in the Netherlands: a long-term perspective on flood risk management
JOS VAN ALPHEN

Staff Delta Commissioner, PO Box 90653, 2509 LR, The Hague, The Netherlands

jos.van.alphen@deltacommissaris.nl
Abstract In September 2008, the Dutch Committee on Sustainable Coastal Development advised the development and implementation of a Delta Programme to adapt flood risk management (and freshwater supply) to climate change. On 1 February 2010 the Delta Commissioner was installed, in order to elaborate and implement this advice into a rolling-on Delta Programme. The Delta Programme will result in updated standards for flood protection and a policy-framework regarding flood-proof urban (re)development. The programme also includes the necessary measures for the short term (maintenance, improvement of “aging infrastructure”), framing these measures into the long-term perspective. The Delta Commissioner directs this multi-governmental process, monitors progress, reports to Parliament annually and takes the necessary steps when problems arise. From 2020 onwards, a Delta Fund of about 1 billion euros per year will provide stability in financial resources. The new Delta Act forms the legal basis for the implementation of the programme, the responsibilities of the Commissioner and the Delta Fund.

Key words flood risk management; climate change; the Netherlands
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Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Publ. 357, 2013), 21-25.


Life safety criteria for flood protection standards
Joost V. L. Beckers1, karin M. de bruijn1 & Durk riedstra2

1 Deltares, PO Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, the Netherlands

joost.beckers@deltares.nl

2 Rijkswaterstaat - Center for Water Management, PO Box 17, 8200 AA Lelystad, the Netherlands
Abstract The Dutch flood protection standards originate from the 1960s. As a result of economic growth and increase of the population over the past decades, these standards have possibly become insufficient to achieve the desired level of safety. Moreover, the EU Floods Directive requires each Member State to evaluate and reduce the flood risk. In line with this Directive, a risk-based approach for flood protection is being developed in the Netherlands, with safety standards that are based on both economic cost-benefit and life safety criteria. In order to support this new policy, a probabilistic risk assessment was performed for the main levee systems. This paper focuses on the life safety aspect. Two loss-of-life risk indicators are considered: the individual risk and the societal risk. These indicators give insight to, respectively, the most hazardous locations and the probability of a given number of fatalities during a single flood event.

Key words flooding; risk; EU flood directive; individual risk; societal risk


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Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Publ. 357, 2013), 26-31.


Flood risk management plans in Europe: experiences with their preparation and implementation
William van Berkel1 & Jos van alphen2

1 Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, Directorat General Spatial Planning and Water Management,
PB 20905, 2500 EX The Hague, The Netherlands


william.van.berkel@minienm.nl

2 Staff Delta Commissioner, PO Box 90653, 2509 LR, The Hague, The Netherlands.
Abstract The European Floods Directive (FD, 2007/60/EU) requires Member States to define objectives for the management of flood risks in river basins, focusing on the reduction of potential adverse consequences of flooding for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity. Flood risk management comprises physical measures to reduce the likelihood and consequences of flooding and, where appropriate, non-structural initiatives. The first generation of these flood risk management plans (FRMPs) will become available in 2015. This paper presents the first experiences with the preparation and implementation of these FRMP’s in 20 European countries.

Key words flood risk; management plan; implementation; European Floods Directive; water; rivers; groundwater; European commission

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Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Publ. 357, 2013), 32-40.


Gap analysis of the flood management system in Metro Manila, Philippines: a case study of the aftermath of Typhoon Ondoy
ROMEO GILBUENA, JR1, Akira kawamura1, Reynaldo medina2, hideo amaguchi1 & naoko nakagawa1

1 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Tokyo Japan, 192-0397,
1-1 Minami-Ohsawa, Hachioji, Japan


gilbuena-romeojr@ed.tmu.ac.jp

2 Woodfields Consultants, Incorporated, 1102, 153 Kamias Road Extension, Kamias, Quezon City, Philippines
Abstract For decades, floods caused by heavy rains have repeatedly inundated critical areas in Metro Manila, which prompted the Philippine government to establish a flood management system consisting of both structural and non-structural measures. However, most of the operational flood mitigation infrastructure was proven inadequate during the onslaught of typhoon Ondoy. The storm brought rains that exceeded the rainfall intensities of the country’s previous typhoons. The aftermath of this disaster paints a bleak scenario for the highly urbanized Metro Manila as the effects of climate change increase the likelihood of storms having the same, or even higher, intensities as Ondoy. This study deals with the identification of gaps in Metro Manila’s flood management system using the records and observations made during and after typhoon Ondoy. The primary focus of this study was on the performance of the flood control structures, flood forecasting and early warning systems in Metro Manila. The flood control structures were assessed based on the results of field inspection and observations during and after the storm. The flood forecasting and warning systems were evaluated using the information available from various government offices, and from the results of key informant interviews and surveys. The study revealed that factors such as inadequate hydraulic design of the flood control structures in the rivers and drainage systems, lack of an accurate flood forecasting system and lack of proper maintenance of the flood warning system, contributed to the unprecedented flooding on 26 September 2009, which inundated around 34% of Metro Manila. The study concludes by stressing the need for distributed and enhanced flood mitigation programmes, planned and constructed flood control structures, and establishment of effective flood forecasting and early warning systems. The existing flood management programmes should be reviewed and revised in accordance with a new safety level for flood prevention and control.

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