Floods – From Risk to Opportunity
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- Editors-in-chief Ali Chavoshian
- Floods: From Risk to Opportunity KUNIYOSHI TAKEUCHI 1 ALI CHAVOSHIAN 2,3
- The Delta programme in the Netherlands: a long-term perspective on flood risk management JOS VAN ALPHEN
- Life safety criteria for flood protection standards Joost V. L. Beckers
- Flood risk management plans in Europe: experiences with their preparation and implementation William van Berkel
- Gap analysis of the flood management system in Metro Manila, Philippines: a case study of the aftermath of Typhoon Ondoy
Floods – From Risk to Opportunity 
Edited by Ali Chavoshian & Kuniyoshi Takeuchi Co-edited by Xiaotao Cheng, Erich Plate, Slobodan Simonovic, Stefan Uhlenbrook & Nigel Wright IAHS Publ. 357 (2013) ISBN 978-1-907161-35-3, 470 + x pp. Price £96.00
Preface With the frequency and variability of floods increasing due to urbanization, along with population growth in flood-prone areas, land-use changes, potential climate change and a rise in sea levels, the number of people exposed to devastating floods is expected to rise. Flood risk management actions are therefore increasingly required to build up the capacity necessary to cope with floods. On 27–29 September 2011, the 5th International Conference on Flood Management (ICFM5) was held in Tokyo, Japan. More than 250 participants travelled to Tokyo from 41 nations to join about 200 other participants from Japan to attend the conference. ICFM is the only recurring international conference focused solely on flood-related issues. The umbrella title of ICFM5 was “Floods: From Risk to Opportunity”. In order to implement this concept, a paradigm shift is necessary from focusing on emergency response and recovery to flood risk management. This process should be supported by vulnerability monitoring and development of tools such as standards to measure risk and preparedness level in an integrated approach in order to build capacity for better response to floods by taking advantage of their benefits while at the same time minimizing their social, economic and environmental risks. The ICFM5 Secretariat at the International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM) under the auspices of UNESCO received 417 abstracts covering all the announced topics. An international scientific committee reviewed all submitted abstracts for relevance to the ICFM5 objectives. Over 260 abstracts were selected for oral and poster presentation at the conference and authors of 130 selected abstracts were invited to submit their full papers in order to be considered for three post-conference publications, including this IAHS Red Book. All submitted papers were peer-reviewed by external reviewers and the final 49 papers were selected for publication in this volume after they met all requirements made by reviewers. We know the other papers are a product of hard work with useful information and insights but had to limit the number of papers due to the publication capacity, and ask the authors for their understanding. The papers in this volume are published in five sections as follows:
–Section 2, with 16 papers on Flood Risk Management (Prevention, Mitigation and Adaptation) –Section 3 with 10 papers on Flood Disaster Management (Preparedness, Emergency Response and Recovery) –Section 4 with 14 papers on Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Systems –Section 5 with 8 papers on Flood Management in Different Climate Conditions and Geographic Zones
Preface by Ali Chavoshian & Kuniyoshi Takeuchi v
IntroductionFloods: From Risk to Opportunity Kuniyoshi Takeuchi & Ali Chavoshian 3
Flood Risk Management (Prevention, Mitigation and Adaptation) The Delta programme in the Netherlands: a long-term perspective on flood risk management Jos Van Alphen 13
Karin M. de Bruijn & Durk Riedstra 21
26
32
Albert S. Chen, David Butler, Slobodan Djordjević & Natasa Manojlović 41
48
57
66
75
B. Kolen & M. Kok 86
98
107
Risk sharing in practice for Integrated Flood Management Masahiko Murase 117
Prediction of the effect of huge structures on eco-hydrological changes in Changjiang Basin Tadanobu Nakayama & David Shankman 127
viii Educational activities for urban flood damage reduction using unique facilities Keiichi Toda, Taisuke Ishigaki, Yasuyuki Baba & Taira Ozaki 135
Creating new opportunities by integrating water safety and spatial planning Ellen Tromp & F. H. M van de Ven 143
3 Flood Disaster Management (Preparedness, Emergency Response and Recovery) Flash flood retention in headwater areas of the Natzschung River using small retarding basins Jens Bölscher, Achim Schulte, Christian Reinhardt & Robert Wenzel 153
The variability of ENSO and predictability of seasonal flooding: evidence from the Pacific Islands and Bangladesh Md. Rashed Chowdhury 166
Urban flooding management using the natural drainage system case study: Tehran, capital of Iran M. Ghahroudi Tali & M. A. Nezammahalleh 174
Multi-agent based flood evacuation simulation models considering the effect of congestion and obstructions on the pathway K. Hanajima, M. Nakashima, T. Hori & D. Nohara 181
Research on rainstorm-induced flood risk assessment in China based on 1-km grid data Dapeng Huang, Renhe Zhang, Zhiguo Huo, Fei Mao & Youhao E. 190
Flood risk management in a cold climate – experience in Norway Linmei Nie, Lars A. Roald, Sofie Mellegård & Čedo Maksimović 198
Performance of artificial wetland in removing contaminants from stormwater under tropical climate Mohd Noor Nur Asmaliza, M. S. Lariyah, A. Rozi & A. G. Aminuddin 208
Bed variation analysis using the sediment transport formula considering the effect of river width and cross-sectional form in the Ishikari River mouth Seiji Okamura, Kazunori Okabe & Shoji Fukuoka 217
Dealing with disasters: developing an integrated regional resilience strategy Yazmin Seda-Sanabria, Enrique Matheu & Robert Stephan 225
Prediction of potential outburst floods from a glacial lake due to moraine dam failure Badri Bhakta Shrestha, Hajime Nakagawa, Kenji Kawaike, Yasuyuki Baba & Hao Zhang 241
4 Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Systems Impact of urbanization on flood vulnerability in shallow groundwater catchment Amila P. Basnayaka, R. Sarukkalige & I. Werellagama 255
A decision support framework for flood risk assessment: an application to the Brahmaputra River in Bangladesh Mukand S. Babel, S. H. M. Fakhruddin & Akiyuki Kawasaki 263
Rainfall–runoff modelling with data driven techniques: constraints and proper implementation Lekhangani Arunoda Basnayake & Vladan Babovic 273
The stochastic discharge forecast – creation, interpretation and other applications Lucie Březková & Miloš Starý 283
Analysis of the “needs” of the users for the newly introduced X-Band MP (multi-parameter) radar N. Fujiwara, T. Yagami, N. Hashido, S. Moriyama, K. Araki & Y. Yonese 292
Evaluation of flood discharge hydrographs and bed variations in a channel network on the Ota River delta, Japan T. Gotoh, S. Fukuoka & R. Tanaka 300
Ensemble short-term rainfall–runoff prediction and its application in urban flood risk mapping Ratih Indri Hapsari, Satoru Oishi, Kengo Sunada, Tetsuya Sano & Dian Sisinggih 308
Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) in the Jajroud basin of Iran using a synoptic model Mahmoud Ahmadi, E. Fattahi & A. Noormohmmadi 320
Study on spatial-temporal distribution of rainstorm in China from 1961 to 2010 Fei Mao, Dapeng Huang, Renhe Zhang, Zhiguo Huo, E. Youhao & Huifei Jiang 328
Sequential data assimilation for streamflow forecasting using a distributed hydrologic model: particle filtering and ensemble Kalman filtering Seong Jin Noh, Yasuto Tachikawa, Michiharu Shiiba & Sunmin Kim 341
Effect of density of gauges on accuracy of merged GSMAP: case study of typhoon Morakot G. Ozawa, H. Inomata & K. Fukami 350
Flood warnings for infrastructure: tailored flood warning services Frazer Rhodes 357
Roles of natural levees in the Ara River alluvial fan on flood management Shigeru Saito & S. Fukuoka 368
Transboundary cooperation in flood forecasting and warning services within the international Morava River basin Eva Soukalová 377
5 Flood Management in Different Climate Conditions and Geographic Zones A methodology for rapid inundation mapping for a megacity with sparse data: case of Mumbai, India K. Gupta & V. Nikam 385
The next generation tsunami hazard map Makoto Hada, Hirokazu Nakamura & Isamu Okaki 392
Assessment of rainstorm climate risk and rainstorm-induced agricultural disaster risk in east-central China Zhiguo Huo, Quanpei Wen, Zhenfeng Ma, Jingjing Xiao & Lei Zhang 405
Review on Japanese assistance of community-based management for flood disaster Mikio Ishiwatari, Junko Mimaki & Tomoko Shaw 416
Knowledge transfer in international cooperation projects: experiences from a Dutch–Romanian project J. Vinke-de Kruijf, S. J. M. H. Hulscher & J. T. A. Bressers 423
Integrated flood evacuation simulator considering time–space distributions of flood risk Kazumi Matsuo, Lumen Natainia & Fumihiko Yamada 435
Flood early warning system: sensors and internet B. E. Pengel, V. V. Krzhizhanovskaya, N. B. Melnikova, G. S. Shirshov, A. R. Koelewijn, A. L. Pyayt & I. I. Mokhov 445
People-centred approach in integrated flood risk management in Lower Mekong Basin Aslam Perwaiz 454
Key word index 463
Author index 467
Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Publ. 357, 2013), 3-10. Floods: From Risk to Opportunity KUNIYOSHI TAKEUCHI1 & ALI CHAVOSHIAN2,3 1 International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM) under the auspices of UNESCO, PWRI, 1-6 Minamihara, Tsukuba 305-8516, Japan kuni.t@pwri.or.jp 2 Department of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology (IUST), Narmak 16846-13114, Tehran, Iran 3 Committee on Disaster Risk Management-World Federation of Engineering Organizations, CTI Engineering, 3-21-1 Nihonbashi, Tokyo 103-8430, Japan Abstract “From risk to opportunity” implies that in facing risk, humanity has an ability not only to avoid it turning into a disaster, but also to use the threat as an opportunity to transform society into a higher level of sustainability. The means of transformation include increase of social capital in communities, promotion of development, both structural and non-structural, integrated with risk reduction and building resiliency. In the case of floods, this concept should be completed by best use of flood flows. In order to implement this concept, a paradigm shift is necessary from focusing on emergency response and recovery to risk management before disaster occurs. This process should be supported by vulnerability monitoring and development of tools such as standard scales for measuring risk and preparedness level in an integrated approach in order to build capacity for better response to floods by taking advantage of their benefits while at the same time minimizing their social, economic and environmental risks. This shift should be reflected in the post-Hyogo Framework for Action to start in 2015. Key words disaster resiliency; flood risk management; IFM; risk to opportunity; sustainable society; standard scales of measuring risk and preparedness; social capital -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Publ. 357, 2013), 13-20. The Delta programme in the Netherlands: a long-term perspective on flood risk management JOS VAN ALPHEN Staff Delta Commissioner, PO Box 90653, 2509 LR, The Hague, The Netherlands jos.van.alphen@deltacommissaris.nl Abstract In September 2008, the Dutch Committee on Sustainable Coastal Development advised the development and implementation of a Delta Programme to adapt flood risk management (and freshwater supply) to climate change. On 1 February 2010 the Delta Commissioner was installed, in order to elaborate and implement this advice into a rolling-on Delta Programme. The Delta Programme will result in updated standards for flood protection and a policy-framework regarding flood-proof urban (re)development. The programme also includes the necessary measures for the short term (maintenance, improvement of “aging infrastructure”), framing these measures into the long-term perspective. The Delta Commissioner directs this multi-governmental process, monitors progress, reports to Parliament annually and takes the necessary steps when problems arise. From 2020 onwards, a Delta Fund of about 1 billion euros per year will provide stability in financial resources. The new Delta Act forms the legal basis for the implementation of the programme, the responsibilities of the Commissioner and the Delta Fund. Key words flood risk management; climate change; the Netherlands -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Publ. 357, 2013), 21-25. Life safety criteria for flood protection standards Joost V. L. Beckers1, karin M. de bruijn1 & Durk riedstra2 1 Deltares, PO Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, the Netherlands joost.beckers@deltares.nl 2 Rijkswaterstaat - Center for Water Management, PO Box 17, 8200 AA Lelystad, the Netherlands Abstract The Dutch flood protection standards originate from the 1960s. As a result of economic growth and increase of the population over the past decades, these standards have possibly become insufficient to achieve the desired level of safety. Moreover, the EU Floods Directive requires each Member State to evaluate and reduce the flood risk. In line with this Directive, a risk-based approach for flood protection is being developed in the Netherlands, with safety standards that are based on both economic cost-benefit and life safety criteria. In order to support this new policy, a probabilistic risk assessment was performed for the main levee systems. This paper focuses on the life safety aspect. Two loss-of-life risk indicators are considered: the individual risk and the societal risk. These indicators give insight to, respectively, the most hazardous locations and the probability of a given number of fatalities during a single flood event. Key words flooding; risk; EU flood directive; individual risk; societal risk -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Publ. 357, 2013), 26-31. Flood risk management plans in Europe: experiences with their preparation and implementation William van Berkel1 & Jos van alphen2 1 Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, Directorat General Spatial Planning and Water Management, PB 20905, 2500 EX The Hague, The Netherlands william.van.berkel@minienm.nl 2 Staff Delta Commissioner, PO Box 90653, 2509 LR, The Hague, The Netherlands. Abstract The European Floods Directive (FD, 2007/60/EU) requires Member States to define objectives for the management of flood risks in river basins, focusing on the reduction of potential adverse consequences of flooding for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity. Flood risk management comprises physical measures to reduce the likelihood and consequences of flooding and, where appropriate, non-structural initiatives. The first generation of these flood risk management plans (FRMPs) will become available in 2015. This paper presents the first experiences with the preparation and implementation of these FRMP’s in 20 European countries. Key words flood risk; management plan; implementation; European Floods Directive; water; rivers; groundwater; European commission -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Publ. 357, 2013), 32-40. Gap analysis of the flood management system in Metro Manila, Philippines: a case study of the aftermath of Typhoon Ondoy ROMEO GILBUENA, JR1, Akira kawamura1, Reynaldo medina2, hideo amaguchi1 & naoko nakagawa1 1 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Tokyo Japan, 192-0397, 1-1 Minami-Ohsawa, Hachioji, Japan gilbuena-romeojr@ed.tmu.ac.jp 2 Woodfields Consultants, Incorporated, 1102, 153 Kamias Road Extension, Kamias, Quezon City, Philippines Abstract For decades, floods caused by heavy rains have repeatedly inundated critical areas in Metro Manila, which prompted the Philippine government to establish a flood management system consisting of both structural and non-structural measures. However, most of the operational flood mitigation infra structure was proven inadequate during the onslaught of typhoon Ondoy. The storm brought rains that exceeded the rainfall intensities of the country’s previous typhoons. The aftermath of this disaster paints a bleak scenario for the highly urbanized Metro Manila as the effects of climate change increase the likelihood of storms having the same, or even higher, intensities as Ondoy. This study deals with the identification of gaps in Metro Manila’s flood management system using the records and observations made during and after typhoon Ondoy. The primary focus of this study was on the performance of the flood control structures, flood forecasting and early warning systems in Metro Manila. The flood control structures were assessed based on the results of field inspection and observations during and after the storm. The flood forecasting and warning systems were evaluated using the information available from various government offices, and from the results of key informant interviews and surveys. The study revealed that factors such as inadequate hydraulic design of the flood control structures in the rivers and drainage systems, lack of an accurate flood forecasting system and lack of proper maintenance of the flood warning system, contributed to the unprecedented flooding on 26 September 2009, which inundated around 34% of Metro Manila. The study concludes by stressing the need for distributed and enhanced flood mitigation programmes, planned and constructed flood control structures, and establishment of effective flood forecasting and early warning systems. The existing flood management programmes should be reviewed and revised in accordance with a new safety level for flood prevention and control. Download 369.75 Kb. Share with your friends:
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