Hurricane – Cycle a team Geekets Problem Based Learning Model

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  There is a hurricane season every year that runs from June through November.
  

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  Hurricanes have different categories according to the wind strength.
  

I know that hurricane start as a tropical wave and can turn into hurricanes within days.

I know this because I watch the weather channel when a tropical storm is on its way.

What I know?

Hurricanes are unpredictable and can increase in strength within hours.

I have seen how a hurricane headed our way changes path within hours of predicted landfall.

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  cause millions of dollars in damage due to high winds and heavy rain
  
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  cause mass flooding of homes and roads
  
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  can be unpredictable
  
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  can have winds of 100 mph or more
  
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  travel in spiral formation and the center of the storm is the most dangerous
  
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  hit coastal areas
  
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  form in the ocean
  
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  cause fear and apprehension in coastal areas take down power lines and affect water drainage systems
  

I haven’t experienced too many hurricanes but I do know it is scary to know that your home can be destroyed in a matter of hours. When I was a kid, I remember having to leave my home to take refuge in a school that was being used as a shelter. There were a lot of other families there and each just as scared as we were. I remember my mom trying to keep us calm, while my dad just paced up and down a hallway. I can’t forget the sound of the rain against the roof and the hard winds that never seemed to stop. I also remember weather reports on TV or the radio. As a grown up, experiencing hurricanes is a whole new kind of scary. Now I’m the one trying to keep my kids calm, but preparing for the worst.

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  It is the most Catastrophic hurricane to hit the state of Texas.
  
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  It killed thousands of people.
  
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  It hit as a category 4 hurricanes.
  
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  It hit the city of Galveston TX.
  
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  Destroy most of the city
  
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  Flooded the city
  
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  People were left without light for days for those who did not evacuated the city.
  
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  cost the city of Galveston too much money in repairs
  
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  cause health problems, because of water contamination, due to bodies floating in the water
  

Other climate changes the severity and number of hurricanes.

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  How can we predict the next major storm that will affect our area?
  
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  How can we prepare for a major storm?
  

How often do weather meteorologist tract the predicted paths?

8. 
   How does global warming affect a hurricane?
   
9. 
   Will we have more or less hurricanes due to global warming?
   

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  What can be done to minimize damage during a hurricane?
  
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  What are the greatest number of hurricanes that impacted our area?
  

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  How can we predict the next major storm that will affect our area?
  

Scientist can predict approximate wind speeds and intensity for sustained winds. This is calculated by comparing to past seasons. The sustained wind speed follows the Poisson distribution with some accuracy. The storms are predicted based on the activity from the past years and current measures of factors in the climate. They is some discrepancies in the prediction so In reality there is no precise way to predict a hurricane. Basically, meteorologists use the data such a water temperature, wind patterns, jet stream, humidity levels to name some. The use this weather conditions to determine if the condition is favorable for an active hurricane season.

 http://www.sciencedaily.com/videos/2006/0502-hurricanes_predicting_2006.htm

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  How can we prepare for a major storm?
  

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/2011_HAW_poster.pdf

Hurricane disaster supply list

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/prepare/supply_kit.shtml

Check list for you and your family

Locate a safe room or the safest areas in your home for each hurricane hazard. In certain circumstances the safest areas may not be your home but within your community.

Determine escape routes from your home and places to meet. These should be measured in tens of miles rather than hundreds of miles.

Have an out-of-state friend as a family contact, so all your family members have a single point of contact.

Make a plan now for what to do with your pets if you need to evacuate.

Post emergency telephone numbers by your phones and make sure your children know how and when to call 911.

Check your insurance coverage - flood damage is not usually covered by homeowners insurance.

Stock non-perishable emergency supplies and a Disaster Supply Kit.

Use a NOAA weather radio. Remember to replace its battery every 6 months, as you do with your smoke detectors.

Take First Aid, CPR and disaster preparedness classes.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/prepare/family_plan.shtml

You may have heard the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale referred to in a weather report, or seen it mentioned in an article, in relation to a hurricane. For example: “Hurricane (blank) is now a Category 1 storm…”

The National Hurricane Center explains it this way:
It’s a way to categorize the storm based on the hurricane’s intensity at an indicated time.
All hurricanes are dangerous, but some are more so than others. The way storm surge, wind and other factors combine determines the hurricane’s destructive power. To make comparisons easier and to make the predicted hazards of approaching hurricanes clearer to emergency managers, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's hurricane forecasters use a disaster-potential scale, which assigns storms to five categories. This can be used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast with a hurricane.

The scale was formulated in 1969 by Herbert Saffir, a consulting engineer, and Dr. Bob Simpson, director of the National Hurricane Center. The World Meteorological Organization was preparing a report on structural damage to dwellings due to windstorms, and Dr. Simpson added information about storm surge heights that accompany hurricanes in each category.

Effects: No real damage to building structures. Damage primarly to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage.

Effects: Some roofing material, door, and window damage to buildings. Considerable damage to vegetation, mobile homes, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings.

Effects: Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Mobile homes are destroyed. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 feet ASL may be flooded inland 8 miles or more.

Example of Category 4 hurricane from space - Hurricane Luis, 1995:

Effects: Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 feet ASL and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5 to 10 miles of the shoreline may be required.

National Hurricane Center: Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

A revised version, called the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (Experimental), is now available on the National Hurricane Center’s website. It has removed storm surge ranges, flooding impact and central pressure statements from the scale and only employs peak winds.

Here's the link: Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (Experimental), National Hurricane Center

Continue reading on Examiner.com Hurricanes 101: How are hurricanes categorized? - National Tropical Travel | Examiner.com http://www.examiner.com/tropical-travel-in-national/hurricanes-101-how-are-hurricanes-categorized#ixzz1fzepm9NO

How often do weather meteorologist tract the predicted paths?

UPDATE BY:Jim Williams..... The hurricane season has ended with 19 named storms of those seven became hurricanes. On my annual Hurricane season kickoff show I made my city and island picks for impacts from named storms which can be seen on my predictions page. Once again I did pretty good with 3 of my top 5 areas hit with the worst impact being on Great Exuma Isl Bahamas my #4 pick. The island was hit by Hurricane Irene with 120mph winds on Aug 24th causing extensive damage. This is why I always say that if your location is in my top 5 your chances of a significant impact are way above normal. On June 1st I stated that I felt South Florida would be impacted during the season. I was so confident of this prediction that I placed a bet that if the area was not impacted I would wear a costume of the viewers choice. After many emails were sent in, the number one choice was for me to wear a hot dog suit with sponge bob and tinker bell as close second's. South Florida was not impacted by a named storm in 2011 so I wore the hotdog suit on the November 30th end of season broadcast. Archive subscribers can watch the two hour show here .

#8

The number of severe hurricanes has doubled worldwide even though the total number of hurricanes has dropped over the last 35 years, a new study finds.

The possible relationship between global warming and hurricane strength has been a topic of controversy for years.

The new study supports another one released in July, in which climatologist Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology showed for the first time that major storms in both the Atlantic and the Pacific since the 1970s have increased in duration and intensity by about 50 percent.

http://www.livescience.com/9349-increase-major-hurricanes-linked-warmer-seas.html

#9

Global warming might not fuel more intense hurricanes in the Atlantic after all. Despite increasing ocean temperatures that feed the monstrous storms, climate change may also be ramping up the winds that choke off a hurricane’s development.

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  What can be done to minimize damage during a hurricane?
  
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    Hava a family plan to evacuate
    
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    Take care of loose debris such as lawn furniture
    
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    Board up windows and doors
    
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    Install hurricane shutters to protect window and doors
    
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    Have a plan to evacuate in case of severe flooding
    
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  What area in the U.S. has the greatest number of hurricanes that impacted the area?
  
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    The greatest number hurricanes to affect an area is Florida. Many Florida cities are listed on the top most areas hit by a hurricane.
    

http://www.disastercenter.com/guide/hurricane.html

There is a forecast process when it comes to the type of communication local cities have:

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  watches
  
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  warnings
  
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  forecasts
  
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  Analyses of hazardous weather conditions in the tropics.
  

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  1st - Hurricane Hotline Coordination
  2nd - International Coordination
  3rd - Emergency Manager Coordination
  
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  National Weather Service (NWS) national centers, NWS forecast offices, NWS river forecast centers, and several Department of Defense installations.
  
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  INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION
  The TPC issues watches and warnings for the United States. However, the national weather services of the Caribbean countries, Central America, Mexico, Bermuda, and Canada 
  
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  COORDINATION WITH EMERGENCY MANAGERS
  One way this occurs is through a briefing for federal, state, and local emergency managers held by the Hurricane Liaison Team (HLT) of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
  
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  Tools use
  

1. 
   Weather radio
   
2. 
   Radar
   
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   sky warn
   

Here in the valley National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office of Brownsville, TX is in charge of the communication efforts in the valley.