Impact turns + answers – bfhmrs russia War Good
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Harbor Teacher Prep-subingsubing-Ho-Neg-Lamdl T1-Round3, Impact Turns Aff Neg - Michigan7 2019 BFHMRS
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- It’s close--- and economic factors matter most
2NC---Trump WinsTrump wins 2020Jack Hough 6-25-2019, "The Goldman Sachs Trump Chart That Should Scare Democrats Right Now," No Publication, https://www.barrons.com/articles/donald-trump-goldman-sachs-2020-chart-51561404147//HM As 20 Democrats running for president prepare to debate each other on back-to-back nights this week, a chart from Goldman Sachs suggests that President Donald Trump is the early favorite to win reelection in 2020. That contrasts with most public and even private campaign polling as the Democratic primary contest heats up. Trump is the only president never to hit 50% in the daily Gallup poll since its inception; a wide range of surveys suggest he’s trailing potential general election opponents in key states, and Trump’s team recently denied, only to later confirm, the existence of polls conducted by his own campaign that showed him down across the swing states. That led the campaign to part ways with a number of its pollsters. We’ll leave it to others to guess winners, but the Goldman chart serves as a warning against overconfidence for Democrats. It uses just two pieces of information, both of which Democrats already know: Trump is an unpopular president, and the economy is healthy. These are not value judgments. Popularity is measured in approval polls, and those suggest Trump is slightly less popular than Jimmy Carter was when he lost his reelection bid to Ronald Reagan in 1980. Economic health is measured here using average growth in gross domestic product over two years leading up to the quarter before the election. We don’t have those numbers yet for Trump, of course, so Goldman uses its forecast of 2.2% GDP growth. By that metric, he’ll preside over an economy as healthy as that of Bill Clinton in 1996 or George W. Bush in 2004. It likely doesn’t hurt that the S&P 500 index has returned 36.4% since Trump’s inauguration, or 13.7% annualized. Plotting popularity and GDP for incumbent elections going back to Lyndon Johnson in 1964 yields a scatterplot showing how well an incumbent has to do on one measure to make up for weakness on the other. Long story short, Trump is doing well enough on the economy to make up for his low approval rating—and win. See the chart below. It’s close--- and economic factors matter mostJT Crowe 19, 4-15-2019, writer for Money and Markets. "Goldman Sachs: Trump Has 'Narrow Advantage' in 2020 Election," https://moneyandmarkets.com/goldman-sachs-trump-2020//HM Donald Trump is more likely than not to earn a second term in the White House, according to Goldman Sachs economists analyzing data ahead of the 2020 election. Incumbent presidents generally have a 5 to 6 percent “built-in advantage,” according to the bank’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius, and a strong economy under Trump has added to his edge. However, Goldman is predicting the election as a “close call” leaning narrowly in the president’s favor as of today. “The advantage of first-term incumbency and the relatively strong economic performance ahead of the presidential election suggest that President Trump is more likely to win a second term than the eventual Democratic candidate is to defeat him,” Hatzius said in a note on Saturday. Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and increased government spending have pushed economic growth to nearly 3% in 2018. Economic factors like income, payrolls and GDP are some of the biggest factors in predicting election outcomes, and all have gotten a boost under Trump. “A strong economy should help the president’s reelection chances. … Political scientists have developed a number of election models over the years that rely mainly on economic variables to predict the two-party popular vote,” Hatzius said. Additionally, incumbents finishing the first term for their party have received a greater share of the two-party vote than candidates whose party has already controlled the White House for two or more terms, according to Goldman. This “prominent” historic pattern would give Trump a “narrow advantage,” Hatzius said. While Trump’s approval rating is only hovering over 40%, according to an average calculated by the website FiveThirtyEight, the number isn’t that low when put in context, the Goldman economist pointed out. In fact, Hatzius said, Trump could still win the reelection fight even with a general unfavorable opinion. Trump-approval “We note that if President Trump maintains his -9.6pp net approval rating, combining this approach with our economic forecast suggests that he would win the two-party popular vote by a slim margin,” Hatzius said. Goldman’s view also seems to be in line with Wall Street’s consensus as more than 70% of market insiders expect Trump to win reelection in 2020, according to an RBC survey in April. Download 0.83 Mb. Share with your friends:
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