Oil 1 Peak Oil 21
Download 9.54 Mb.
|
- Navigate this page:
- Peak in 2030
Peak in 2020Nonconventional oil will delay the peak until 2020, after which there will be a transition to hydrocarbon liquids. Bob Williams, executive director, Oil & Gas Journal, “Debate over peak-oil issue boiling over, with major implications for industry, society,” 7/14/03, pg. 18 Other consultants acknowledge some value in Hubbert-style modeling but arrive at different results. Fereidun Fesharaki, head of Honolulu-based FACTS Inc., told OGJ that he accepts that the world oil production peak is "imminent," but he expects it to occur "sometime in the next decade, not this decade. "This pick applies only to conventional oil, and nonconventional oil can delay the peak to the 2020s." The Centre for Global Energy Studies, London, has "done quite a lot of Hubbert-type work over the years with respect to crude oil," said CGES Deputy Executive Director and Senior Economist Leo Drollas. The CGES models stopped at 1973, however, because "after that date, oil production was not amenable to Hubbert-style analysis due to (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) policies." CGES's latest modeling effort finds global oil production tracking oil demand growth to 2020 and declining along a moderate slope thereafter. "Because of shut-in crude oil production (almost all of which is in the Middle East), we think the world's crude oil output can continue to grow at the rate at which oil demand is likely to grow (1% per annum) until at least 2020, peaking at around 81 million b/d (compared with around 68 million b/d in 2003) under the 2 trillion bbl (URR) case. "Thereafter, conventional crude production will decline gradually, reaching 33 million b/d by 2040, allowing unconventional hydrocarbon liquids to step in. Oil prices need not be sustained at high levels until 2020, but after that date it is more than likely that oil prices will trend upwards." Peak in 2030Current resources and tech developments means that any “peak” wouldn’t happen until after 2030. Ronald Bailey, science correspondent for Reason magazine, Reason, “Peak Oil Panic,” 5/06, http://www.reason.com/news/show/36645.html In its 2005 Energy Outlook, ExxonMobil estimates “global conventional oil resources total 3.2 trillion barrels…with non-conventional ‘frontier’ resources such as heavy oil bringing that total to over 4 trillion barrels.” In November 2005, the International Energy Agency, an organization created in 1974 by 26 industrialized countries to assess global energy issues, released its annual World Energy Outlook report, which accepted the USGS numbers and concluded that “the world’s energy resources are adequate to meet projected growth in energy demand” until at least 2030. The report predicted that oil production would grow from the 2004 level of 82 million barrels a day to 115 million barrels a day and that any “peak” would occur after 2030. It suggested that world oil prices will decline to around $35 per barrel (in 2004 dollars) by 2010 and eventually rise to $39 per barrel by 2030. At the Montreal Climate Change Conference in December, Claude Mandil, head of the International Energy Agency, declared: “We don’t share the tenets of the peak oil theory. We feel that they underestimate technological developments. For many decades to come there is no geological problem.” Peak won’t come until 2030. Peter R. Odell, Professor Emeritus of International Energy Studies @ Erasmus University, “Why Carbon Fuels Will Dominate the 21st Century’s Global Energy Economy,” 2004, p. 48 
Directory: file -> view view -> Western Europe after wwii view -> Author study: paul fleischman view -> Qpa1 7ela study Guide view -> Arctic Oil/Gas Neg view -> November 1970 Approximately 150,000-500,000 deaths Bhola Cyclone Bangladesh view -> Grade Level: 6 Unit of Study: Caribbean glce view -> Citation: Duffield, Katy view -> Table of Contents Lesson # view -> Chinese Wind Energy Disad Download 9.54 Mb. Share with your friends:
|