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Hardline on Iran goodContinued… precisely Qatar, which hosts large American military bases, that maintains the most cordial relations with Iran. This policy apparently derives from the desire of Qatar's ruler, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa, who is engaged in a protracted dispute with Saudi Arabia, to flaunt his independence as compared with the other Gulf states which efface themselves before Saudi Arabia. Qatar is also influenced by the Muslim Brotherhood, which maintains a large and influential presence there. Despite the fact that the Brotherhood members are Sunni, they have elected at this juncture to support Iran in its conflict with the US. Two years ago, the Qatari ruler invited Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to a summit meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council without informing his colleagues, who expressed their displeasure. He also sent his chief of staff to Teheran to examine options for military cooperation. During Israel's Gaza operation, he even convened an Arab summit, together with Syria, that called for severing relations with Israel, thus arousing Mubarak's ire. The Qatari shift occurred right after the Bush administration released its 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran that suggested the Iranians had suspended key aspects of their nuclear weapons program in 2003. From the perspective of the Persian Gulf states, this was the first indication that they might not be able to rely on US determination to block Iran's quest for regional hegemony, and the Qataris sought a rapprochement with Iran instead. Oman, situated astride the exit from the Persian Gulf, attempts to maintain balanced relations with both Saudi Arabia and Iran, and recently refused to join a convention for a monetary union of Gulf states. Saudi Arabia, the largest Sunni state and the caretaker of Islam's holy places, is worried. Despite the fact that it has expended prodigious sums on the purchase of American weapons and equipment, its small army is incapable of deterring or even contending with Iran. It is doing its utmost to assist Sunni forces struggling against the spread of the Shi'ite wave under the baton of Iran, as we have witnessed in Iraq, Lebanon and most recently in Yemen with the Houthi revolt that is supported by Iran. Eastern Saudi Arabia, where the country's largest oil reserves are located, contains a sizable Shi'ite minority. Incitement by Iran could trigger a civil war and inflict mortal damage on Saudi oil resources and exports, the cornerstone of the Saudi economy and the royal family's power. At this stage, although Saudi Arabia is in the same camp with Egypt versus Iran, Riyadh prefers to maintain relative calm in its communications, to avoid provocation and aggravated tension, in the belief that its friend the US will protect it. Yet Saudi-owned media outlets openly admit the magnitude of the Iranian threat. For example, Abd al-Rahman al-Rashed, director-general of the Al-Arabiya network, wrote in the Saudi London daily Asharq al-Awsat that nuclear weapons in Iran's hands would help it dominate the Middle East through subversion: "We fear the logic of the current regime in Teheran, which spent the country's funds on Hizbullah, Hamas, the extremist movements in Bahrain, Iraq and Yemen, and the Muslim Brotherhood, and supported every extremist in the region. The Ahmadinejad regime aspires to expansion, hegemony and a clear takeover on the ground, and to do this he needs a nuclear umbrella." Given the failed attempts by the West to impose sanctions on Iran, and the voices emerging from Washington that diplomacy is the way to solve the crisis and that the military option is off the table, Ahmadinejad has nothing to fear, at least at the current stage. He feels he can advance his subversive plan and strike at the countries of the region. The provocative naval maneuvers that Iran continues to conduct are intended to deter the US and Israel, but they also convey a clear message to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states: "We are here alongside you and we have massive power. Do not dare to provoke us." Meanwhile, the US offers no response. YES iran strikesUS strike on Iran coming Kotzev, 7/3 [Victor, political analyst with expertise in the Middle East, 2010, Asia Times Weather clears for a US strike on Iran, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LG03Ak01.html] War drums are beating in the Middle East. In a short time, the United States has increased the number of its carrier strike groups opposite Iran to three, and reports are raining down of a tightening ring of American and Israeli concentrations all around the Islamic Republic. On the diplomatic front, the Israelis are unusually concerned about their international image (for example, making concessions in Gaza) while their top officials - including Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself - are shuttling between Jerusalem and Washington. Everybody in the region is restless. Turkey is making spectacular diplomatic pirouettes. Egypt is quietly seething, and Saudi Arabia less quietly so. Jordan's king had ruefully predicted war if no peace was achieved by the summer [1], and summer has now come. Syria and Lebanon are positioning themselves to weather the coming storm [2]. Yemen is in disarray. Russia, China, India, and a host of other powers are vying to make the best of the fracas. The Iranian regime itself appears to be digging in for a fight. By most accounts, a cataclysm is approaching. The situation, according to analyst Tony Badran, is "arguably similar to the one immediately preceding the 1967 Arab-Israeli war". Some very detailed analyses of the technical details of an Israeli strike on Iran are also available, such as David Moon's Asia Times Online story "The anatomy of an attack on Iran" [3]. An Israeli expedition into Iran may well take this course; however, at this point it seems very likely that if a strike occurs, it will involve Israel and the US acting in tandem. The US appears to have stepped up covert operations and preparations for action against Iran. Persistent reports reveal that American forces have been concentrating around the Persian Gulf and the Caucasus, most remarkably in Yemen and Azerbaijan, and that US and Israeli air forces have recently been practicing joint bombing drills. It may be, therefore, that the US is simply on a geostrategic collision course with Iran, and doesn't feel confident enough that Israel will be able to do the job. According to a Stratfor monograph from February 27 titled "The Geopolitics of Iran", for example, the Islamic Republic cannot put up with a US presence on its borders, and has consequently tried hard to "manipulate ethnic and religious tensions in Iraq and Afghanistan to undermine the American positions there and divert American attention to defensive rather than offensive goals". Writes Stratfor: The greatest threat to Iran in recent centuries has been a foreign power dominating Iraq - Ottoman or British - and extending its power eastward not through main force but through subversion and political manipulation. The view of the contemporary Iranian government toward the United States is that, during the 1950s, it assumed Britain's role of using its position in Iraq to manipulate Iranian politics and elevate the shah to power. This in itself - not to mention the interests of other vital American allies such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt - might be reason enough for an American military intervention. Directory: file -> view view -> Western Europe after wwii view -> Author study: paul fleischman view -> Qpa1 7ela study Guide view -> Arctic Oil/Gas Neg view -> November 1970 Approximately 150,000-500,000 deaths Bhola Cyclone Bangladesh view -> Grade Level: 6 Unit of Study: Caribbean glce view -> Citation: Duffield, Katy view -> Table of Contents Lesson # view -> Chinese Wind Energy Disad Download 1.27 Mb. Share with your friends:
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