The Emerging Electrical Markets for Copper
Figure 18: Hybrid Electric Vehicle Output Forecast (‘000 vehicles)
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- Figure 19: Forecast Share of HEVs of All Alternative Vehicle Output
Figure 18: Hybrid Electric Vehicle Output Forecast (‘000 vehicles) 
Figure 19: Forecast Share of HEVs of All Alternative Vehicle Output 
This brief analysis indicates a highly concentrated market with a limited technology spread. Figure 14 showing a partial list of the vehicles due for launch indicates that this picture is about to change, with major contenders about to enter within the HEV sector, and also the introduction of PHEVs and BEVs intended for mass production. Recent trends in the alternative vehicle market indicate that it is at a take off stage. During the latter half of 2009, monthly sales more than doubled compared to the first half and the previous year, despite the depressed state of the automotive industry overall. With this in mind we forecast a rapid expansion in alternative vehicle output of around 50% p.a. over the next four years, creating a market of over 4 million vehicles by 2013. While Europe’s purchase of HEVs is quite substantial, especially in the UK and the Netherlands, output to date has been modest. Focus by the big German car manufacturers in particular has been on the enhancement of ICE vehicles through the development of diesel technology and the ability to use alternative fuels (bio-fuels). While Europe is late on the scene, however, the trend towards alternative vehicles is now well recognised and active model development is underway. The same is true in China, where the battery manufacturer BYD in particular is proving to be a very active proponent of the electric vehicle.
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