Figure 119: Forecast Motor Market, Defined by Copper Content (Kt Cu) 155
Figure 120: Forecast CMR and Shaped Copper Conductor Motor Markets for Copper (Kt Cu) 157
Figure 121: The Role of Industrial Process Automation in Abating Greenhouse Gas Emissions 159
Figure 122: Forecast Power Electronics Market (constant US$ million) 163
Figure 123: Forecast Power Electronics Market (kt Cu) 164
Figure 124: Li-ion Batteries and Their Competitors 167
Figure 125: Possible Development Path for Fuel Cells 171
Figure 126: Forecast Copper in Emerging Energy Storage Markets (kt Cu) 171
The primary objective of this research project is to investigate the markets for copper that are at an early stage of development, identifying their size and potential growth. The main focus is Europe, although the world potential of these markets is also identified.
We are looking essentially at very small markets that are likely to grow into “significant” ones by 2020. By “significant” we take the arbitrary figure of 5 ktpy consumption of copper.
The need for cleaner and more sustainable sources of energy.
The need for efficient use of energy.
An ageing population.
Lack of clean water resource.
An increasingly digital world.
We are looking essentially at very small markets that are likely to grow into “significant” ones.
The markets fall into four categories:
Premise and within premise equipment.
Cross sector products and technologies.
Markets can be defined either as an object (such as a certain type of car) or a component within it (such as a motor), or sometimes both. Bearing this in mind, we have constructed a matrix showing the emerging markets identified in this Report (see Table A).
There are 18 markets that strictly meet our size and growth criteria, defined in Table B. Of these, 3 are new road vehicle types, 3 are object markets in the energy infrastructure sector, 2 are in the premise sector and 10 are specific items of equipment or cross product technologies.
In Table B we show an additional 6 markets that are already too large to be considered as “emerging” (mainly relating to renewable source power generation). We show these markets as each is growing rapidly and it is likely that major market opportunities will be found within them.
For each market addressed, we considered not only the likely increase in copper use over the next decade, but also the certainty of achieving the amount specified, the upside potential and long term growth.
The automotive market shows the richest potential for emerging markets. Two vehicle types, the Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV) and Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV), will almost certainly grow from small markets into very large ones by 2020. A third vehicle type, the Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV) should become a significant market by 2020. Though less certain than the PHEV or BEV, the long term potential of the FCEV is thought to be greater than either.
Defining equipment within the automotive area also gives us emerging markets, including that in motors, high voltage harnesses, charging infrastructure and power electronics. The more established non plug-in hybrid will contribute towards these markets.
The big opportunities in power generation are found in wind power and solar photovoltaic (PV) power. Both markets have reached a size above that we consider as emerging, even when broken down to the component group level. We do, however, consider that there may be specific opportunities in both which justify their inclusion as emerging markets.
Between them, wind and solar power create an important emerging market for power electronics.
Developments within wind power will create specific opportunities. The trend offshore will mean rapid growth in products adapted for the offshore environment from quite a small base. This could include special cables for floating platforms (copper sheathed) or corrosion protection cladding for wind towers, for example.
The solar PV market offers specific opportunities for enhanced cabling. Also, second-generation solar cells such as CIGs may transform this market by allowing a quantum leap in market volume and greater copper intensity (as the cells are less efficient, so more of them are needed).
Other, smaller, distributed generation types can be considered as emerging. We put Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) in this category. Going beyond 2020, Tidal & Wave energy will undoubtedly also meet the criteria, although the potential over the next decade is limited.
Because of its developing link to renewable energy sources and power generation, we consider desalination under the energy infrastructure heading. There is a strong underlying dynamic behind this market, and an increasing electrical content in desalination. We define two separate emerging desalination markets: 1) the market for all copper in desalination units linked to renewables and 2) copper in the electrical systems of all desalination plants.
Table B: Size, Growth and Potential of the Emerging Markets
Developments in the electricity infrastructure are likely to bring about great opportunities, although we were not able to identify any specific emerging markets. The opportunities are in the areas of electronics relating to the Smart Grid, high voltage and long distance transmission (bringing about a growing interest in HVDC), the increasing requirement for energy storage (covered separately), and the focus of electricity development offshore.
As well as building new, cleaner, electricity generating capacity, there is a growing market for cleaning up old fossil fuel plants through Carbon Capture and Storage. We see this as a market that will have just started to come of age in 2020. We therefore include it in our emerging market category.
In the premise sector, the two emerging markets we recognise are the “smart ageing” market and advanced rewiring caused by a more rigorous inspection schedule associated with the Smart Grid.
With a long-term rise in the number of elderly people, it is both socially desirable and economic that ways are found to allow people to continue living in their home once they become older and more infirm. In time, this dynamic should drive a sustained growth in new wiring and systems, although it is not clear exactly when this market will take off.
With the advent of the Smart Grid and underlying societal trends towards home working and a requirement for greater functionality, we may expect the standards of wiring in the home to improve over time. We have identified as an emerging market what we believe will be an additional demand for rewiring, resulting directly from more rigorous inspection of wiring systems.
The integration of renewable energy in the building, whether in the form of heat or electricity, will create additional demands on the electrical system as well as creating a market for copper in its own right. Individual markets that we can define as emerging, however, are lacking. We show heat pumps in Table B, which is the closest we could find in this sector to an emerging market as defined here.
In the equipment area, the primary focus for energy efficiency is on motors and motor driven systems. Here, we identify as emerging the markets for two copper-intensive motor types. These are the Cast Motor Rotor (CMR) motor, already commercial, and shaped copper conductor motor, currently being developed.
Aside from the motors themselves, we should consider associated equipment and also industrial automation. No specific emerging markets were found here, but some relatively small markets should achieve rapid growth. This includes power electronics in Variable Speed Drives (VSDs).
Electronics in general is an enabling technology, helping to bring to realisation the potential for new automotive and power infrastructure markets. As indicated above, power electronics has important sub-markets that may be considered as emerging.
The other big enabling technology is energy storage. Copper associated with li-ion batteries and other storage devices such as fuel cells in various applications also constitute important emerging markets.