The Emerging Electrical Markets for Copper
Market Forecasts by Sector
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- Figure 62: Growth in Installed Solar PV Capacity 2000-2009 17
- Figure 63: World and European PV markets in 2009 18
- Figure 64: Forecast Solar PV Generating Capacity in Place (GW)
- Figure 65: Forecast Installation of Solar PV Generating Capacity (GW)
Market Forecasts by SectorThe solar PV market consists of two elements, that designed to supply the electricity grid and that designed to provide independent power, usually not connected to the grid. These two sectors have slightly different dynamics. For both, grid parity (cost equivalence to the cost of electricity on the grid) is essential. In the case of small consumers, high installation costs coupled with modest production of electricity can make parity very difficult to achieve. A combination of solar electricity with solar heating can reduce the costs. Another is the integration of solar materials within buildings from first construction, an option applicable to commercial buildings finding some favour in Europe, where this is a 25 MW per year market. In general, however, grid parity is only achieved with the aid of subsidies. This is expected to remain the case until the cost of solar panels falls substantially. For large grid connected systems, installation costs are also high, but electricity supplied from large modern solar parks is closer to parity with competing sources of electricity, without the aid of subsidies. While the tariffs obtained are still critical, other factors such as the quality of the solar resource play more of a role. To date, the history of solar PV installation can best be understood by differences in the level of subsidy. Europe, with a relatively poor solar resource, has subsidised solar PV heavily. This is the main reason why, today, it has over 70% of the world’s solar PV capacity. Subsidies have been particularly generous in Germany and Spain. Germany alone accounts for 40% of world solar PV capacity in 2010. The history of subsidies has also influenced the balance between grid-connected and non grid connected solar PV. Up to five years ago, a substantial portion of the market (about one-third) was accounted for by off-grid installations. With subsidies for this type of development becoming relatively less generous and the economics of large-scale on-grid development improving, most of the growth in the past few years has been in on-grid solar PV. The rate of growth in solar PV in recent years has been phenomenal, averaging over 40% p.a. between 2005 and 2010. This was from a very low base, however. In 2010, solar PV still only accounts for 0.6% of total installed electricity generating capacity worldwide. Solar PV is still not a technology that can fully compete on purely commercial grounds. The reliance of the solar PV on subsidies has two important implications. First of all, it is very vulnerable to changes in subsidies and feed in tariffs. The markets of both Spain and Germany have been hit hard by changes made. Secondly, if the costs of solar PV do come down as many analysts predict to make this a truly competitive technology, the commercial basis for this technology change entirely. The upside potential in this event is enormous. Figure 62: Growth in Installed Solar PV Capacity 2000-200917 
Figure 63: World and European PV markets in 200918 
The cost of PV installation hinges on the cost of solar cells. In a recently built solar park, the cost of solar cells could be as much as 65% of total project costs. If, as seems quite possible, the cost of PV cells falls from the high of US$4 per watt hour peak to US$1.5 per watt hour peak by 2015, this implies a reduction in project costs by over 25%, which should be enough to ensure the commercial viability of solar PV without concessionary tariffs. Bearing this in mind, our forecasts are based on a reasonably conservative view of the solar PV sector’s prospects. The forecasts are based on trends indicated in the EPIA’s baseline forecast. Though higher than the IEA’s very conservative forecasts, the baseline forecast do not take into account the possibility of much more favourable government backing to the industry. Our forecast may therefore be considered as mainstream. The installed capacity figures in Figure 64 suggest a quite rapid rise in solar PV generation, growing by a factor of five between 2010 and 2020. Europe will continue to see strong capacity of growth, but the focus is expected to move elsewhere. In particular, the comparatively small US market is expected to see strong growth. Figure 64: Forecast Solar PV Generating Capacity in Place (GW) 
Figure 65: Forecast Installation of Solar PV Generating Capacity (GW) 
While the rate of capacity growth is impressive, that of new installation is not particularly so. In Figure 65 we see a relatively modest rise from 8 GW installation in 2010 to 18 GW installation in 2020. With much stronger solar PV economics if solar cells really do plummet in price, however, the upside potential is very large, the market potential for new installation possibly being double that shown. Directory: wordpress -> wp-content -> uploads -> 2017 uploads -> Professor rona s beattie and dr david bamaung glasgow caledonian university email for corresponding author uploads -> Best Offensive Players: qb #19 keenan reynolds, N, ’16. Lg #57 E. K. Binns, N, ’16 uploads -> Smart Supervision Research Partner Orientation Course fy13 and fy14 Grantees September 29- october 1, 2015/San Antonio, tx uploads -> Autonomous Control for a Reliable Internet of Services (across) 2017 -> 6 Thai Market Analysis 2017 -> Birchwood intermediate school 2017 -> Operation corporate 2017 -> This document is written for the amateur radio operator that will be using the PiGate as an emergency communications device in a disaster situation Download 10.26 Mb. Share with your friends:
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