The Emerging Electrical Markets for Copper
The Preliminary Market Filter
Download 10.26 Mb.
|
- Navigate this page:
- Further Market Investigation and Forecasts
The Preliminary Market FilterHaving defined the market areas where attention should be focussed and identified the alternative ways of defining markets (either as “Objects and Systems” or “Components”), the next task is to define those specific market areas worthy of further investigation. This is the purpose of the preliminary market filter, shown in Figure 7 and Figure 8. The first part of the filter process is to find out which markets can be excluded as they do not meet the critical criteria. On the tables, these are defined as threshold criteria, and whether or not they achieve a criterion is shown by a Yes / No answer (or a question mark). The key threshold criteria are 1) whether the market is electrical, 2) whether it is already too large (above 5 ktpy) to be considered an emerging market and 3) whether it is sufficiently discrete to be considered a separate market at all. Markets that fail on the Yes / No criteria are coloured grey on the column at the right hand side of these tables. The rejection on the threshold basis in some cases means that the markets concerned are given no further coverage in this Report. Others are given different degrees of coverage, as they are still of interest. Some “Object” markets rejected on grounds of size, for example, become eligible at the “Component” level. Others do not, but their very rapid growth, comparatively small size currently and the possibility of dividing the component categorisation more finely (and thus putting current copper consumption under our threshold), make them worthy of further investigation. This is true of wind power and solar PV power systems, and their components. Having defined whether or not a market may qualify, the next task is to determine which of them looks on a priori grounds to be most suitable for further investigation. This was done by giving a weighted score out of 200. The categories that go up to make the score are as follows: Stage of product development. Underlying performance of the market sector in which the new market is found. The performance of the new market area within its sector. The new market’s competitive position compared to lower copper alternatives and entirely different technologies. Expected performance of the new market. While the scoring process was by no means precise, it gives some indication of which markets are likely to be winners, and those which are not. In the right hand columns of the scoring tables we have marked the markets that achieve scores of 110 and above in gold. This corresponds quite well to the markets we identify in this Report as the “emerging markets for copper”. There are other markets that are worthy of attention. In particular, some market areas promise to be large within a 15 to 20 year period, but maybe not in the time frame under review. Marine power generation, for example, falls into this category. Further Market Investigation and ForecastsTaking the initial filter described above, the results of further market investigation are given in the Sections of this Report that follow. With hugely different estimates by different authorities as to how these markets will develop in volume and technology, the copper content forecasts are intended to be indicative only. Where appropriate, we give an indication of what we consider to be the realistic range Figure 9: GDP Forecast (2005 US$ billion) 
Figure 10: Population Forecast (million) 
Figure 11: GDP per Head (2005 US$ ‘0000) 
of possible outcomes. The main forecasts we produce are intended to be consistent with the macroeconomic and GDP scenarios presented in Figure 9, Figure 10 and Figure 11. Directory: wordpress -> wp-content -> uploads -> 2017 uploads -> Professor rona s beattie and dr david bamaung glasgow caledonian university email for corresponding author uploads -> Best Offensive Players: qb #19 keenan reynolds, N, ’16. Lg #57 E. K. Binns, N, ’16 uploads -> Smart Supervision Research Partner Orientation Course fy13 and fy14 Grantees September 29- october 1, 2015/San Antonio, tx uploads -> Autonomous Control for a Reliable Internet of Services (across) 2017 -> 6 Thai Market Analysis 2017 -> Birchwood intermediate school 2017 -> Operation corporate 2017 -> This document is written for the amateur radio operator that will be using the PiGate as an emergency communications device in a disaster situation Download 10.26 Mb. Share with your friends:
|