The Emerging Electrical Markets for Copper
Market Forecasts by Sector
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Market Forecasts by SectorThe energy storage market is too fragmented for it to be possible to make a realistic estimate of its size and growth path. It is clear, however, that this is a market area that is set to see exceptionally rapid growth, especially in areas relating to the automotive market and the electricity grid. Not all energy storage applications are in themselves huge consumers of copper, although there is usually a large amount of copper relating to their use, but energy storage is a key enabling technology. Without the anticipated developments in energy storage, many of the emerging markets for copper would not be possible. Taking batteries, the importance of the new markets is immediately apparent. For 2005, Freedonia calculates the overall battery market at US$53 billion. Then, looking at Li-ion batteries in automotive applications alone; for 2020 we conservatively forecast 16 million hybrid and fully electric vehicles being sold. If each has a li-ion battery, and the cost of per unit has gone down to US$5,000, this alone would create a market of US$80 billion (i.e. one and a half times the size of the total battery market in 2005). We have indicated that large Li-ion batteries also may come to have a large role in the electricity grid. This is likely to be at a fairly early stage by 2020, indicating that there is further potential growth in this market even if HEVs, PHEVs and BEVs start to be superseded by FCEVs. While huge potential is seen for large Li-ion batteries, it is possible that other battery technologies may come to take on some of its role. Zinc-air batteries, for example, have been quoted as one alternative. Fears have been expressed over the security of supply of lithium, Bolivia being the country with the largest proven reserves. Car company Ford, however, recently made assurances that alternative, more reliable, lithium sources were available. In the analysis above, we indicate that fuel cells are expected to have an important market position by 2020. Assuming that vehicle fuel cell costs are the same as Li-ion batteries, this would suggest a market of around US$2.5 billion by 2020. Other applications are likely to double this figure. For fuel cells, development up to 2020 is thought to be only the beginning, with the real take off in this market coming somewhat later. Figure 125: Possible Development Path for Fuel Cells 
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