China do the plan cp ddi 2011 1 table of contents
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- Iran Prolif Leads To Extinction Spring 11
- ***AFF*** CHINA IS BAD AT SPACE Chinese space program has significant flaws (Aff Ans) RAND
- Chinese Space Bad – Nationalism China space program causes Chinese nationalism Johnson-Freese ’7
- That causes extinction Moore ‘6
- A2: Zero Sum Zero Sum doesn’t reflect China-US relations – dialogue can solve Jaio Xiu ‘5
- Zero sum doesn’t describe US-Chin – Clinton Global Times ’10
- *** COOP PERM*** US CHINA SPACE COOP GOOD US and China must cooperate on Space Race
- The US must cooperate with China on space
- The US need to cooperate with China to deter them
- US CHINA SPACE COOP GOOD Cooperation ends mistrust
- ***AFF: CHINA SPENDING DA*** Tradeoff 2AC Disad On the brink of social upheaval now—focus on social spending and inflation key to check violence
IRAN BMP ADDON China proliferates technology to Iran Wortel et al. NOVEMBER 2006, 2006 REPORT TO CONGRESS OF THE U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION “SECTION 2: CHINA’S PROLIFERATION AND INVOLVEMENT IN NORTH KOREA’S AND IRAN’S NUCLEARIZATION ACTIVITIES “http://www.uscc.gov/annual_report/2006/chapter2_sec2.pdf China’s Proliferation to Iran and Its Role in Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Development China and Iran have had a long relationship. More recently, during the 1990s, in order to meet its domestic reconstruction needs after the Iran-Iraq war and to offset a deficiency in domestic investment, Iran increased oil production to generate export revenues and increase its holdings of foreign reserves. At the same time, China’s requirement for imported petroleum was growing substantially (it became a net oil importer in 1993), and China began to explore relationships in the Middle East to enhance its energy security.195 Dr. Calabrese, of the Middle East Institute claims that the U.S. arms embargo and economic sanctions on Iran following the U.S. Embassy hostage crisis of the late 1970’s opened the door for greater Chinese involvement in Iran, because they forced Iran to seek alternative economic partners.196 A significant aspect of China’s current relationship with Iran is its continued support for developing Iran’s weapons programs and capabilities. Ilan Berman, Vice President for Policy at the American Foreign Policy Council, testified before the Commission that the trends in Sino-Iranian relations are toward a growing proliferation partnership and increasing security cooperation.197 Chinese companies and government organizations continue to assist Iran in creating self-sufficient ballistic missile capabilities. In August 2006, the U.S. Department of the Treasury sanctioned the Great Wall Airlines Company Limited, a cargo airline jointly owned by Chinese and Singaporean firms, for transporting missile- related and dual-use components to Iran’s military.198 Assistant Secretary Rodman also mentioned that ‘‘a Chinese firm continued to supply probably MTCR-controlled items and dual-use items to an Iranian missile production organization in late 2005 and 2006 and has prepared other raw materials for shipment to Iran,’’ and that a Chinese ‘‘serial proliferator’’ located in Beijing has supplied materials to Iran’s missile industry since at least 2004.199 China also has delivered missile guidance systems and solid-fuel missile technology to Iran.200 Additionally, China has allowed the transfer of weapons and technology across its territory from North Korea to Iran (and other locations). A Congressional Research Service report on China’s proliferation record states that, ‘‘[f]rom April to July 2003, China reportedly gave overflight rights to Iranian Il-76 cargo planes that flew to North Korea at least six times to pick up wooden crates suspected of containing cruise missiles.’’ 201 After U.S. protest in June 2005, China denied over-flight rights for an Iranian plane departing from North Korea.202 Furthermore, China has supported Iran’s development of chemical weapons. On December 23, 2005, the Administration imposed sanctions on the North China Industries Corporation (NORINCO) and five other Chinese companies for missile and chemical weapons proliferation.203 Despite the sanctions, Mr. Berman testified that Chinese firms remain actively engaged in transferring dual-use items that could be used to develop a chemical weapons stockpile.204 A primary concern for U.S. security is that these transferred items and technology will in turn be transferred outside Iran to its proxy groups or to other rogue nations. Even if it desired to assert such control, it would be very difficult for China to control such third party transfers. The consequences of such transfers could seriously damage Chinese and American interests in the Middle East by threatening regional security. For example, Assistant Secretary Rodman confirmed that during July 2006, Hezbollah used Chinese- designed C–802 ‘‘SILKWORM’’ anti-ship cruise missiles,205 which Mr. Berman testified the Israeli government had no knowledge Hezbollah possessed,206 to attack an Israeli naval vessel. In this way, China’s transfer of these missiles to Iran played a role in the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Although China’s missile sale was a conventional weapons transfer, the willingness of Iran to retransfer these items to a terrorist organization heightens U.S. concerns over China’s willingness to provide arms to Iran. Not only could terrorist organizations use Chinese arms obtained from Iran to disrupt the region, but Iran itself could use Chinese arms against U.S. troops or our allies in the region. Iran Prolif Leads To Extinction Spring 11, “Nuclear Weapons Modernization Priorities After New START” Baker Spring, The Heritage Foundation, June 27 2011 http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2011/06/Nuclear-Weapons-Modernization-Priorities-After-New-START Proliferation of Ballistic Missiles. Ballistic missile proliferation has been growing both qualitatively and quantitatively since the end of the Cold War. More than 30 countries in the world have ballistic missile technology.[25] Both U.S. allies and enemies work tirelessly to improve the accuracy, range, and delivery payload of their ballistic missiles. Iran launched a satellite into orbit in 2009.[26] This is particularly worrying because the same technology used to place a satellite into orbit can essentially deliver a nuclear warhead to the United States, Europe, or anywhere in the world. Iran has been sharing advanced ballistic missile technologies with other rogue states and terrorist organizations, posing a direct threat to Israel, America’s most important ally in the Middle East.[27] Iran’s ballistic missile program would not have advanced so quickly without the cooperation of North Korea. In January 2011, Secretary of Defense Gates stated that “North Korea is becoming a direct threat to the United States” and that North Korea will develop the capability to target the U.S. territory within the next five years.[28] This further strengthens the case for credible nuclear deterrent forces and ballistic missile defense to protect the United States and its allies if deterrence fails. Proliferation of Nuclear Technologies. The increasing demand for nuclear power and uranium enrichment technology is also shaping the post–Cold War environment. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) regulates both because the technology to enrich uranium for nuclear reactors can also provide material for nuclear weapons. In the past, India, Pakistan, and North Korea developed their own nuclear weapons under the aegis of civilian nuclear programs. Iran’s nuclear weapons program is a major worry to the United States and could become an existential threat to U.S. allies and friends in the region. The IAEA is unable to determine whether Iran’s nuclear facilities are for civilian or military purposes. The latest IAEA report concluded that Iran is continuing to enrich uranium and is constructing an additional nuclear reactor.[29] Not even the latest round of U.S. sanctions has persuaded Iran to stop its nuclear program and increase its transparency.[30] In April 2011, the IAEA confirmed the international community’s suspicions by announcing that the Israeli strike in 2007 destroyed a Syrian reactor designed to produce material for nuclear weapons.[31] These unsettling events have sparked concern around the world. The United States cannot afford to overlook the growing proliferation concerns of U.S. allies and friends because the U.S. has provided direct security guarantees to many of them. ***AFF*** CHINA IS BAD AT SPACE Chinese space program has significant flaws (Aff Ans) RAND, nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decision making through research and analysis, 2011, National Security Research Division, “Ready for Takeoff: China’s Advancing Aerospace Industry”, http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2011/RAND_MG1100.pdf Nonetheless, China’s space program has encountered significant technical problems, particularly with satellites. China’s domestically designed high-capacity communications satellite platform, called Dongfanghong 4 (DFH-4), has experienced multiple failures. The Huanjing series of environmental and disaster-monitoring satellites and the Haiyang series of oceanographic satellites, although they have experienced no known failures, are being deployed more slowly than originally announced. Three out of 10 Beidou-series PNT satellites have also experienced technical problems. It is not clear whether these problems are due to underlying design issues, insufficient quality control in construction, or simple poor luck, but China’s space capabilities will probably not develop as quickly as outlined in the “National Guidance for Medium- and Long-Term Plans for Science and Technology Development (2006–2020).” Nonetheless, comparison with the successes of China’s space program suggests that any technical problems will be overcome eventually. The ultimate effect on U.S. national security will be the same, but that effect might not emerge as quickly as current plans would imply. Chinese Space Bad – Nationalism China space program causes Chinese nationalism Johnson-Freese ’7 Joan Johnson-Freese Chair, Department of National Security Studies, at the Naval War College, expert on Chiense space development “China's Space Program Drive by Techno-Nationalism” Driving Beijing’s recent space achievement is a long-term commitment "to propel China’s high technology development" fueled by the ideology of techno-nationalism. Techno-nationalism is the 21st century equivalent of the earlier developmental nationalism that had stemmed from colonial subjugation and left many populations willing to accept national discipline—such as the Chinese one child policy—to produce independent national power. While even China is not governed by a single guiding ideology today, the increasing salience of space and of other advanced technologies is bringing techno-nationalism to the fore as a useful framework for understanding the motivations of developing great powers such as China. It helps to answer such questions as "Why would China, with over 1.3 billion people to feed, house and keep employed, spend money on a manned space program?" That causes extinction Moore ‘6 Scott Moore, Undergraduate Research Assistant, East Asia Nonproliferation Program, CNS, 10-18-2006, “Nuclear Conflict in the 21st Century: Reviewing the Chinese Nuclear Threat,” NTI, http://www.nti.org/e_research/e3_80.html It thus appears unlikely that any impetus for the use of nuclear weapons in a conflict with the United States would come from within the established Chinese policymaking apparatus. There are suggestions, however, that pressure for the actual or threatened use of nuclear weapons against the United States may come from outside China's policymaking elite, via a phenomenon that may be termed "hyper-nationalism."[14] The gradual expansion of freedom of speech in China has revealed some truly radical nationalistic perspectives, ranging from a kind of Chinese lebensraum (sheng cun kong jian)[15] to allegations of a kind of racist plot in Western policy towards China.[16] In a crisis situation, there are suggestions that such hyper-nationalism may exert significant pressure on policymakers to respond with an aggressive response, which could include nuclear weapons. Chinese nationalism, informed by a perceived history of subjugation and humiliation by foreign powers, has at times encouraged violent reaction to perceived injustices perpetrated on China, particularly by Japan and the United States. Surveys, which must be treated with some caution,[17] indicate that substantial majorities of educated young Chinese have strongly negative views of Japan and the United States.[18] This latent "oppositional nationalism" was manifested by militant responses to events such as the 1999 U.S./NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade by US forces. One survey of university students indicated that resulting violent protests were genuinely popular, with a surprising 64% of those surveyed having participated.[19] A2: Zero Sum Zero Sum doesn’t reflect China-US relations – dialogue can solve Jaio & Xiu ‘5 Wu Jiao and Jia Xu China Daily staffwriters The US and China, whose economies are complementary in nature, are partners for mutual benefits rather than zero-sum competitors, said Wang Qishan, vice premiere of the State Council of China today during the opening ceremony of the second China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue. Wang expressed sincere wishes that through dialogue both side would reduce their disputes and promote a healthy and stable bilateral relationship. Chinese president Hu Jintao will also attend the opening ceremony of the second China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue and make a speech. Zero sum doesn’t describe US-Chin – Clinton Global Times ’10. Global Times newspaper specific to Chinese policy Global Times US-Sino relationship not zero-sum game: Clinton WASHINGTON, Oct. 28 (Xinhua) -- U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Thursday rejected the view to apply "a zero-sum calculation" on U.S.-Sino relationship, insisting the two countries are working together for a positive, cooperative, and comprehensive relationship in the new century. Clinton made the remarks in her Asia strategy speech in Honolulu, Hawaii, where she started her sixth trip to Asia. The relationship between China and the United States is "complex and of enormous consequence," and United States is committed to getting it "right," she told the audience in the Kahala Hotel and Resort in Honolulu. "Now, there are some in both countries who think China's interests and ours are fundamentally at odds. They apply a zero-sum calculation to our relationship. So whenever one of us succeeds, the other must fail," she said. "But that is not our view. In the 21st century, it is not in anyone's interests for the U.S. and China to see each other as adversaries," Clinton said. "So we are working together to chart a positive, cooperative and comprehensive relationship for this new century." Clinton said the "the breath-taking growth and development" that China has experienced is primarily due to "hard work of Chinese people." She also argued that the United States, since it established diplomatic relations with China in the 1970s, has consistently supported China's development and prosperity, rejecting charges that her country "is bent on containing China." "We do look forward to working closely with China, both bilaterally and through key institutions, " Clinton said. Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will hold an unofficial meeting in South China's Hainan Province within the next few days, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Wednesday. *** COOP PERM*** US CHINA SPACE COOP GOOD US and China must cooperate on Space Race William Martel is a professor of national security affairs at the Naval War College in Rhode Island and Toshi Yoshihara is a doctoral candidate, the Washington Quarterly, 2003 (http://www.cfr.org/china/washington-quarterly-averting-sino-us-space-race/p12158) Nevertheless, the costs of competition are mounting, and the risks are getting steeper in the current atmosphere of mutual suspicion. Indeed, the absence of mutually understood perceptions and capabilities is compelling each government to assume the worst about the other and to respond accordingly in their planning and behavior. In the language of defense planning, the United States and China are seeking to minimize risk and uncertainty about the other. Thus, it is far more preferable for Washington and Beijing to formulate their assessments in the open than to wander aimlessly in the dark. Whether they will succeed depends on the answers to three interrelated questions that require further exploration. First, is it possible to have cooperation in space without transparency? This question can be refined in another way: What levels of knowledge do both sides need for cooperation to develop? Second, can there be true cooperation in space without roughly equal capabilities? In particular, what are the conceivable benefits (and how might they be measured) for the United States to cooperate with China, given that Washington enjoys such a commanding lead in space? Finally, do the element s of disagreement in the broade r U.S. – Chinese strategic relationship, particularly with respect to Taiwan, preclude the possibility of cooperation in space? In other words, is it possible for China to look beyond its dissatisfaction with the status quo? These questions illustrate the daunting policy challenges that both governments face: bridging deeply embedded asymmetries between the United States and China and building a broader framework so that the incentives to cooperate will prevail over the driving forces behind confrontation
Bruce W. MacDonald, council on foreign relations, China, Space Weapons, and U.S. Security, pg. 27-28, 2008 China has preferred a comprehensive arms control approach to space security for a number of years. China and Russia have joined together in the UNCD to promote a treaty to ban all weapons in space. The stated purpose of their proposal, which aims to prohibit space-based weapons and the use of force against outer space objects, was to close the gaps in existing international space law. Russia also proposed a moratorium on the placement of weapons in outer space. China has said its proposal seeks to prevent the deployment of weapons, an arms race, and the threat or use of force against objects in outer space. Notably, China itself has conceded the difficulty of verifying such an agreement. The paper that China and Russia provided at the UN analyzed the feasibility of a verification regime for a future legal instrument. It offered the view that a verification regime in a future treaty applicable to outer space would be highly complicated and would encounter formidable technological and financial challenges. The United States has rejected the China-Russia approach, and it is highly unlikely the U.S. Senate would ratify any agreement that was not shown to be effectively verifiable. The US need to cooperate with China to deter them Bruce W. MacDonald, council on foreign relations, China, Space Weapons, and U.S. Security, pg. 35, 2008 To reinforce the positive dimensions of current U.S. space posture, policy, and doctrine, and enhance national security, the United States should pursue a combination of policy, programmatic, and diplomatic options, together they would constitute a powerful, sophisticated response to China’s offensive counterspace challenge. The Department of Defense (DOD) should establish stability and space-asset protection as major U.S. objectives in space and work with the State Department to develop framework deterrence principles for U.S. counterspace policy that recognize the primacy of deterring attacks on U.S. space assets and maintaining stability in space. The president and the National Security Council should modify national space policy to allow negotiated restrictions on the basis of verifiability and U.S. allies prior to beginning discussions with China and other space powers. Defense and State should assess the impact of different U.S. and Chinese offensive space postures and policies on stability and deterrence in space through intensified analysis and “crisis games,” in addition to war games, to gain a better understanding of the strategic landscape of space and deterrence. The National Security Council should evaluate the desirability of a “no first use” pledge for offensive counterspace weapons that have irreversible effects. On a quid pro quo basis, State and NASA should discuss with China the opportunities for greater civilian space cooperation as a confidence-building measure. US CHINA SPACE COOP GOOD Cooperation ends mistrust Jeffery Logan is a specialist in energy policy resources, science, and industry division, CRS report for congress, September 29th 2008 (http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RS22777.pdf) The potential benefits of expanded cooperation and dialogue with China include: Improved transparency. Regular meetings could help the two nation understand each others’ intentions more clearly. Currently, there is mutual uncertainty and mistrust over space goals, resulting in the need for worst-case planning. Offsetting the need for China’s unilateral development. Collaborating with China — instead of isolating it — may keep the country dependent on U.S. technology rather than forcing it to develop technologies alone. This can give the United States leverage in other areas of the relationship. Cost savings. China now has the economic standing to support joint space cooperation. Cost-sharing of joint projects could help NASA achieve its challenging work load in the near future. Some have argued that U.S. space commerce has suffered from the attempt to isolate China while doing little to keep sensitive technology out of China. ***AFF: CHINA SPENDING DA*** Tradeoff 2AC Disad On the brink of social upheaval now—focus on social spending and inflation key to check violence Associated Press, 3/6/11. “China will boost spending, try to close the income gap” republished in boston.com article collections, http://articles.boston.com/2011-03-06/news/29345814_1_social-spending-unrest-government/2 China’s government called yesterday for higher social spending, controls on inflation, and measures to urgently close a divisive rich-poor gap, betting that rising living standards, better services, and heavy policing will dampen growing public expectations for change. In a speech that is China’s equivalent of a state-of-the-nation address, Premier Wen Jiabao said the government will boost spending 12.5 percent this year, with bigger outlays for education, job creation, low-income housing, health care, and pensions and other social insurance. Spending on police, courts, prosecutors, and other domestic security is projected to exceed the usually favored military budget for the first time in years, climbing 13.8 percent to $95 billion. Wen reiterated several times during his two-hour-plus speech that the authoritarian government sees the combination of policies as crucial to forestalling unrest among a population grown used to greater prosperity and expecting more. “We must make improving the people’s lives a pivot linking reform, development, and stability . . . and make sure people are content with their lives and jobs, society is tranquil and orderly, and the country enjoys long-term peace and stability,’’ Wen told the 2,923 delegates gathered for the opening of the national legislature’s annual session. The emphasis comes as the government seems increasingly anxious about calls of unknown origin posted online urging Chinese to stage peaceful rallies every Sunday like the ones that toppled autocrats in Tunisia and Egypt. Beijing has been under ever heavier security since the Internet messages first appeared more than two weeks ago. With a new appeal calling for more rallies today, the Beijing Daily, the official Communist Party newspaper, issued a rare front-page editorial yesterday warning people not to be fooled into joining protests that would wreck China’s prosperity. “It’s worth noting that people with ulterior motives from within and outside the country are attempting to lead China into chaos,’’ the editorial said. The plans for greater social spending along with nervousness over social unrest underscore the difficult moment the leadership finds itself in. Protests, strikes, and other mass disturbances are soaring in tandem with living standards. While people want greater accountability and better governance if not democracy, the government is expending ever greater effort to stay ahead of public demands. “The people are the cornerstone for the ruling party. As the old saying goes, ‘The water can float the boat, but can also sink it,’ ’’ said Han Yuchen, chief executive at a supermarket in Handan and a delegate to congress. The 10-day National People’s Congress is a largely pro-forma affair. Wen’s program has been devised and fine-tuned by the leadership over recent months, and the congress delegates are overwhelmingly party members. Still the event portends important changes this year. The most far-reaching of Wen’s programs is an ambitious five-year plan to transform the economy, making it more driven by consumption and less dependent on hefty state investment bank loans that have produced breakneck growth but also asset bubbles, particularly in real estate. 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