China do the plan cp ddi 2011 1 table of contents


US will lose the space race to China – space is key to CCP pride and stability



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US will lose the space race to China – space is key to CCP pride and stability

Hennigan & Vartabedian 7/22. W.J. Hennigan and Ralph Vartabedian [LA Times correspondents on NASA and international space operations] 2011 LA Times Foreign nations push into space as U.S. pulls back
As NASA retreats from an ambitious human spaceflight program for the foreseeable future, foreign countries are moving ahead with their own multibillion-dollar plans to go to the moon, build space stations and even take the long voyage to Mars. Although most of the world still lags far behind the United States in space technology and engineering know-how, other nations are engaging in a new space race and building their own space research centers, rockets, satellites and lunar rovers. Their ambitions are a declaration of their economic and technological arrival. And it's not just the Russians. Later this year, China plans to launch into orbit the first phase of its own space station. The country has already launched six people into outer space and hopes to put a man on the moon sometime after 2020. India is working on its second robotic trip to the moon, with plans to land a rover on the moon's surface in two years. It wants to send a human into outer space by 2016. The European Space Agency is studying a trip to Mars by conducting a 520-day simulated voyage to the red planet. Six volunteers from various countries have been locked in isolation in a windowless mock spaceship, eating canned foods — except when they trudged through red sand and spiked flags into a mockup of Mars' surface. Iran plans to send a monkey into space in the summer, clearing the way for a man to follow. Countries such as Israel, Japan, North Korea and South Korea are busy building their own rockets and launching them from their own facilities. Foreign countries are decades behind the U.S. in their space programs, said Jim Lovell, commander of the tumultuous Apollo 13 mission and a member of Apollo 8, the first mission to orbit the moon. But their human spaceflight programs are just beginning as the shuttle era comes to an end for NASA. "There should be a hollow feeling in Americans' stomachs when Atlantis lands," Lovell said. "It's hard to believe that other nations will surpass us in space technology. But if we continue down the road we're headed, it can be done. I hope we turn it around soon." Russia, of course, has long been America's closest competitor — and partner in more recent years — in space technology, and it continues to have a $7 billion-a-year space program. It shares command of the International Space Station. By comparison, the Obama administration's proposed NASA funding for fiscal year 2012 was $18.7 billion, but a House appropriations panel cut that to $16.8 billion last week, taking money out of NASA's space exploration and science budgets, among other areas. The panel also eliminated funding for the James Webb Space Telescope, the partially built successor to the Hubble Space Telescope, which is among the most successful NASA programs in history. "It's like a slap in the face for the American public who are watching their government abdicate leadership in space," said Eugene Cernan, the last astronaut to walk on the moon, in 1972. Now that the shuttle fleet is headed for retirement, the U.S. will travel to the space station on a Russian Soyuz rocket. Russia will charge NASA $63 million to carry an astronaut. And in a unforeseen development, U.S. astronauts are learning Russian so they can converse with the cosmonauts. NASA wants private companies to one day take astronauts to the station, but that hardware isn't yet ready. The space agency also has plans to build a new launch system to send humans on deep space missions, including a mission to land on an asteroid by the mid-2020s. But the exact destination of future missions and a formal schedule has not been defined, and there is no guarantees for the financial commitment of the billions of federal dollars needed. The space agency has long touted that its half-century in the space race has reaped lasting economic benefits and pushed forward the technological boundaries in a wide range of disciplines, including exotic materials and medical applications. The program has also helped motivate a generation of youth to pursue careers in science and technology. But as the luster of the Apollo moon landings gave way to a repetitious space shuttle program, human spaceflight became routine and almost mundane for many Americans. As a result, Congress perceives little public zeal to proceed with ambitious space travel. "It is sad to see the end of the shuttle with nothing to go onto," said Jeremiah Pearson, former NASA associate administrator for human spaceflight. "We are going to become a Third World nation in spaceflight." That is not the case for China, whose manned Shenzhou missions received constant live TV coverage and significant events during the missions such as the launch and recovery made front-page news in the nation. The Chinese space budget is not published and is difficult to calculate. John Pike, executive director of GlobalSecurity.org, estimates that it is more than $5 billion. Last year, the Chinese government began building a 3,000-acre space center on Hainan Island in the South China Sea, its fourth launch facility. China, striving to become a global economic powerhouse, has touted the economic benefits of the program. "There's a very organized propaganda effort on behalf of the Chinese government about the program," said Gregory Kulacki, a member of the Union of Concerned Scientists who is based in Beijing. "They see the space program as a source of national pride."

1NC - CCP Stability DA
Space race is zero sum – US dominance is a Chinese loss.

Martel & Yoshihara ‘3. William Martel [PhD in Political Science, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Associate Professor of International Security Studies Yoshihara [Analyst at the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, RAND, and the American Enterprise Institute. He holds a Ph.D. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, an M.A. from the School of Advanced International Studies] 2003 The Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology “Averting a Sino-U.S.Space Race”

At the same time that the United States views space dominance as a funda- mental tenet of its national security, China evidently views U.S. space dominance as a major threat to its geostrategic interests. These views inevitably breed a zero-sum competition, in which one side perceives any loss as a gain for the other, and could ultimately prove destabilizing for Sino-U.S. relations. First, Beijing perceives the proposed U.S. missile defense system, which will be supported by an array of space systems and sensors, as a strategic menace to China and to international security.15 Many China watchers con- tend that this perception stems from anxieties that any conceivable system of missile defenses being developed by the Bush administration will under- mine China’s small nuclear deterrent.16 Beijing remains wary of the joint re- search program on missile defense by the U.S.-Japanese alliance, which the PRC sees as a potential partnership for blocking Chinese regional aspira- tions or, in broader terms, for containing China. Of particular concern for Beijing is the possibility that Tokyo’s decision formally to join U.S. plans for deploying missile defense in Northeast Asia will significantly increase Japan’s military capabilities by providing an opportunity for Japanese forces to enjoy unprecedented military integration with U.S. forces in the areas of space- based intelligence and communications.


Space projects are key to CCP stability

Dellios ‘5 Rosita Dellios Associate Professor of International Relations at Bond University and a China defence specialist 2005 “China's Space Program: A Strategic and Political Analysis” Culture Mandala, Vol. 7 no. 1

The CCP also needs the public acclaim that comes from such a prestige project as space exploration to offset a measure of public dissatisfaction with official corruption and social injustice. In 2004, according to government records, there were 74,000 protests in China, involving some three million people.(22) The space program helps improve the party's image. Yet China has been criticized for spending an estimated 19 billion yuan or US$2.4 billion, though the PRC figure is half this,(23) on the Shenzhou-6 launch when such funds could have been better used to help the poor.(24) This is especially so in view of another event in October 2005 - the meeting of the CCP's Central Committee which decided to enhance efforts in adjusting income distribution and alleviating the widening wealth gap. One response by the Chinese to the criticism of privileging the glories of space over grim realities on the ground is that such criticisms are ill-informed. Space officials have defended their work by noting that their space program is used for "sustainable human development" in various sectors from improved food production to telecommunications;(25) while spending on the Shenzhou-6 mission was dwarfed by the 190 billion yuan (US$23.5 billion) spent on pollution control in 2004.(26) In the end, assessments need to be made within the wider framework of China's code of 'comprehensive national strength'. This concept, to which discussion will return, alludes to coordinative efforts between space and terrestrial concerns, as well as between defence and the civilian economy generally.
1NC - CCP Stability DA
CCP collapse causes bio and nuclear warfare

Renxing 5 (San, Epic Times Staff Member, The CCP’s Last-ditch Gamble: Biological and Nuclear War, 8/5/5, The Epoch Times,http://english.epochtimes.com/news/5-8-5/30975.html) JPG

As The Epoch Times’ Nine Commentaries on the Communist Party spreads ever wider in China, the truth it speaks is awakening Chinese people to the true nature of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and inspiring them to cancel their Party memberships. With the number of people quitting the Party growing rapidly by the day, the Communist Party sees that the end is near. In a show of strength to save itself from demise, the CCP has brought out a sinister plan that it has been preparing for years, a last-ditch gamble to extend its life. This plan is laid out in two speeches written by Chi Haotian, Minster of Defense and vice-chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, and posted on the Internet. The background surrounding the speeches is still shrouded in mystery. The titles of the two speeches are “War Is Approaching Us” [1] and “War Is Not Far from Us and Is the Midwife of the Chinese Century.” The two, judging from their similar contexts and consistent theme, are indeed sister articles. These speeches describe in a comprehensive, systematic, and detailed way the CCP’s nearly 20 years of fear and helplessness over its doomed fate, and its desperate fight to extend its life. In particular, the speeches lay uncharacteristically bare what is really on the CCP’s mind and hide nothing from the public—a rare confession from the CCP that can help people understand its evil nature. If one truly understands what is said in this confession, one will immediately catch on to the CCP’s way of thinking. In short, the speeches are worth reading, and I would like to comment on them. I. A Gangster Gambles with the World as His Stake, and the Lives of People in this Global Village Become Worthless What, then, is the gist of this wild, last-ditch gamble? To put it in a few words: A cornered beast is fighting desperately to survive in a battle with humanity. If you don’t believe me, read some passages directly from the speeches. 1) “We must prepare ourselves for two scenarios. If our biological weapons succeed in the surprise attack [on the US], the Chinese people will be able to keep their losses at a minimum in the fight against the U.S. If, however, the attack fails and triggers a nuclear retaliation from the U.S., China would perhaps suffer a catastrophe in which more than half of its population would perish. That is why we need to be ready with air defense systems for our big and medium-sized cities. Whatever the case may be, we can only move forward fearlessly for the sake of our Party and state and our nation’s future, regardless of the hardships we have to face and the sacrifices we have to make. The population, even if more than half dies, can be reproduced. But if the Party falls, everything is gone, and forever gone!”


ASATs Bads DA
US dominance of space creates Chinese ASATs

Hagt ‘7 Director, China Program. World Security Institute 3/29/2007 [U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION, “China’s Military Modernization And Its Impact On The United States And The Asia-Pacific”]

Coupled with a number of key U.S. policy and military documents that call for control in space and the development of space weapons, as well as the U.S. refusal to enter into any restrictive space arms control treaty, China has concluded that America is determined to dominate and control space. This perceived U.S. intent leads Beijing to assume the inevitable weaponization of space, which mainly centers on the current administration’s goal of being able to shoot down missiles of all ranges, in all phases of their flight (boost, midcourse and terminal) and to do this from land, sea, air and space. These capabilities are extremely worrisome for China as they directly impact China’s core national interests and security. Components of this layered missile defense system (particularly boost-phase) will rely on space-based early warning systems, and the U.S. Missile Defense Agency plans to include space-based interceptors having both defensive and offensive capabilities that could effectively negate China’s minimum nuclear deterrent arsenal. The ‘Shriever’ space war games conducted by the U.S. Air Force in 2001, 2003 and 2005 strongly reinforced the conclusion that U.S. space control sets China as a target. An accelerated development of the U.S. ballistic missile system, especially as it is being developed in close cooperation with Japan, has been cited as threatening China’s homeland and nuclear deterrent and may deeply upset the region’s strategic balance or lead to regional proliferation. Most central to China’s concerns, however, is the direct affect U.S. space dominance will have on China’s ability to prevail in a conflict in the Taiwan Straits. Two scenarios are commonly cited as the most likely regarding space assets. One would involve China’s own reliance on force enhancement capabilities and specifically reconnaissance and targeting (of U.S. aircraft carriers for instance) with anti-ship missiles. The second scenario would entail disabling U.S. satellites in preparation for a conflict in the straits and would involve identification, tracking and ASAT capabilities. In both situations, China is vastly the weaker power in space and hence more vulnerable.
Chinese ASAT use tanks the economy

Eaton ‘9 Ian Easton research affiliate at the Project 2049 Institute, MA in China Studies at National Chengchi U in Taipei, BA Int'l Studies at U of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, former translator for the Foundation on Asia Pacific Peace Studies, “The Great Game in Space," June 24, 2009, Project 2049 Institute, Scribd

Many specialists also argue that aside from the U.S. military dependency on orbital space, the U.S. economy, and in turn, much of the world economy, is also rapidly becoming dependent on space-based systems. They posit that, in effect, the U.S. is now a “space War games conducted as part of U.S. national security protocols, such as the Army-After-Next, Navy Global and Air Force Global Engagement series, Space Game 2 and Schriever 1 & 2, as well as the privately conducted “DEADSATS” war games, conducted from the late 1990s and the early 2000s, confirm this view. According to some space experts who were intimately involved with the war games, the exercises exposed “a critical national Achilles heel that politicians, economists and corporate CEOs have largely ignored...losses in space can quickly affect the economic, social, and national security fabric not only of the United States, but of the entire world.” These experts further speculate that “large military powers,” such as the United States, could “be held hostage by the unknowns inherent in a new kind of war.”36 These concerns are directly linked with China’s ASAT weapons and their potential applicability in any future U.S.-Sino conflict. A more recent war game, “Pacific Vision,” conducted by Pacific Air Forces (PACAF) underscored the vulnerability of the unprotected commercial communication satellite channels on which the Air Force relies, as well as its cyber and radar vulnerabilities to Chinese attack.37



ASATs Bads DA
Nuclear war

Mead 9 – Walter Russell Mead, the Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, 2-4, 2009, “Only Makes You Stronger,” The New Republic, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2

As a result, developing countries and countries where capitalism has relatively recent and shallow roots tend to suffer greater economic and political damage when crisis strikes--as, inevitably, it does. And, consequently, financial crises often reinforce rather than challenge the global distribution of power and wealth. This may be happening yet again. None of which means that we can just sit back and enjoy the recession. History may suggest that financial crises actually help capitalist great powers maintain their leads--but it has other, less reassuring messages as well. If financial crises have been a normal part of life during the 300-year rise of the liberal capitalist system under the Anglophone powers, so has war. The wars of the League of Augsburg and the Spanish Succession; the Seven Years War; the American Revolution; the Napoleonic Wars; the two World Wars; the cold war: The list of wars is almost as long as the list of financial crises. Bad economic times can breed wars. Europe was a pretty peaceful place in 1928, but the Depression poisoned German public opinion and helped bring Adolf Hitler to power. If the current crisis turns into a depression, what rough beasts might start slouching toward Moscow, Karachi, Beijing, or New Delhi to be born? The United States may not, yet, decline, but, if we can't get the world economy back on track, we may still have to fight.



NORTH KOREA MEDIATOR SHELL
Chinese space activity promotes regional influence

Johnson-Freese ’7 Joan Johnson-Freese Chair, Department of National Security Studies, at the Naval War College, expert on Chinese space development “China Looking to Reap National Prestige from Space Activity
Space activity, particularly manned spaceflight, also yields considerable prestige, prestige that translates into political prowess. China, as a rising Asian power, is inherently interested in prestige cum geostrategic influence. The implications of a manned space launch did not go unnoticed, for example, by the Japanese. After the first Chinese launch in 2003, one Japanese official was quoted as saying, "Japan is likely to be the one to take the severest blow from the Chinese success. A country capable of launching any time will have a large influence in terms of diplomacy at the United Nations and military affairs. Moves to buy products from a country succeeding in manned space flight may occur." The point about buying products from a country having successfully launched a man into space relates back to economic growth and the creation of technical jobs. As Tsinghua University Professor Yan Xuetong said in 2003, "Now people will realize that we don't only make clothes and shoes."
Chinese influence is key to North Korean denuclearization

Doo-hyong ’11 Hwang Doo-hyong, Global Research correspondent on North Korea and East-Asia 4/13/11, Yonhap News http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/04/14/4/0301000000AEN20110414000800315F.HTML

WASHINGTON, April 13 (Yonhap) -- The United States Wednesday urged China to use its influence to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons and refrain from provoking South Korea. "China remains North Korea's largest supplier of food and fuel, and China perhaps has more interaction with North Korea than any other country," David Helvey, principal director for East Asia policy at the Office of the Secretary of Defense, told a hearing here sponsored by the U.S. Commission on China. "The PLA appears to retain access and influence in North Korea's regime, and we would like for China to use these tools to great effect to support the international community's interest in the peaceful process of denuclearization of North Korea." The People's Liberation Army refers to the Chinese military. The six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear dismantlement have been deadlocked for more than two years over the North's nuclear and missile tests and the sinking of a South Korean warship and shelling of a border island that killed 50 people last year. Seoul and Washington want Pyongyang to mend ties with Seoul before another round of the denuclearization-for-aid talks take place. Pyongyang refused to apologize for the provocations and walked out of a rare inter-Korean dialogue in February, thwarting hopes for an early return to the nuclear talks. Speaking at the hearing, Daniel Kritenbrink, acting deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, also urged China to "press North Korea to take additional steps to improve relations with South Korea, to denuclearize and to abide by its international commitments and obligations. "We expect China to use its close relationship with North Korea to persuade the North Korean regime to cease its reckless behavior," he said. Some analysts say China may be willing to acquiesce to North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons, even though Beijing has been the host of the now-stalled six-party nuclear disarmament talks. With an eye on superpower status, Beijing is said to prefer the status quo to any instability, or a unified Korea led by South Korea and the U.S., due to concerns about losing North Korea as a buffer against the U.S. China, which provides more than 80 percent of the oil, food and other necessities to the North, has invested heavily in the isolated, impoverished nation in recent decades, although Pyongyang has long been under international sanctions.


North Korea mediator shell
The nuclearization of the Korean peninsula causes extinction – acting now is key

Hayes and Hamel-Green ’10 , Nautilus Institute, 10 (Peter, Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute and Michael, Victoria University, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia”, January 5, accessed at http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf)
The consequences of failing to address the proliferation threat posed by the North Korea developments, and related political and economic issues, are serious, not only for the Northeast Asian region but for the whole international community. At worst, there is the possibility of nuclear attack1, whether by intention, miscalculation, or merely accident, leading to the resumption of Korean War hostilities. On the Korean Peninsula itself, key population centres are well within short or medium range missiles. The whole of Japan is likely to come within North Korean missile range. Pyongyang has a population of over 2 million, Seoul (close to the North Korean border) 11 million, and Tokyo over 20 million. Even a limited nuclear exchange would result in a holocaust of unprecedented proportions. But the catastrophe within the region would not be the only outcome. New research indicates that even a limited nuclear war in the region would rearrange our global climate far more quickly than global warming. Westberg draws attention to new studies modelling the effects of even a limited nuclear exchange involving approximately 100 Hiroshima-sized 15 kt bombs2 (by comparison it should be noted that the United States currently deploys warheads in the range 100 to 477 kt, that is, individual warheads equivalent in yield to a range of 6 to 32 Hiroshimas).The studies indicate that the soot from the fires produced would lead to a decrease in global temperature by 1.25 degrees Celsius for a period of 6-8 years.3 In Westberg’s view: That is not global winter, but the nuclear darkness will cause a deeper drop in temperature than at any time during the last 1000 years. The temperature over the continents would decrease substantially more than the global average. A decrease in rainfall over the continents would also follow…The period of nuclear darkness will cause much greater decrease in grain production than 5% and it will continue for many years...hundreds of millions of people will die from hunger…To make matters even worse, such amounts of smoke injected into the stratosphere would cause a huge reduction in the Earth’s protective ozone.4 These, of course, are not the only consequences. Reactors might also be targeted, causing further mayhem and downwind radiation effects, superimposed on a smoking, radiating ruin left by nuclear next-use. Millions of refugees would flee the affected regions. The direct impacts, and the follow-on impacts on the global economy via ecological and food insecurity, could make the present global financial crisis pale by comparison. How the great powers, especially the nuclear weapons states respond to such a crisis, and in particular, whether nuclear weapons are used in response to nuclear first-use, could make or break the global non proliferation and disarmament regimes. There could be many unanticipated impacts on regional and global security relationships5, with subsequent nuclear breakout and geopolitical turbulence, including possible loss-of-control over fissile material or warheads in the chaos of nuclear war, and aftermath chain-reaction affects involving other potential proliferant states. The Korean nuclear proliferation issue is not just a regional threat but a global one that warrants priority consideration from the international community. North Korea is currently believed to have sufficient plutonium stocks to produce up to 12 nuclear weapons.6 If and when it is successful in implementing a uranium enrichment program - having announced publicly that it is experimenting with enrichment technology on September 4, 20097 in a communication with the UN Security Council - it would likely acquire the capacity to produce over 100 such weapons. Although some may dismiss Korean Peninsula proliferation risks on the assumption that the North Korean regime will implode as a result of its own economic problems, food problems, and treatment of its own populace, there is little to suggest that this is imminent. If this were to happen, there would be the risk of nuclear weapons falling into hands of non-state actors in the disorder and chaos that would ensue. Even without the outbreak of nuclear hostilities on the Korean Peninsula in either the near or longer term, North Korea has every financial incentive under current economic sanctions and the needs of its military command economy to export its nuclear and missile technologies to other states. Indeed, it has already been doing this for some time. The Proliferation Security Initiative may conceivably prove effective in intercepting ship-borne nuclear exports, but it is by no means clear how air-transported materials could similarly be intercepted. Given the high stakes involved, North Korean proliferation, if unaddressed and unreversed, has the potential to destabilize the whole East Asian region and beyond. Even if a nuclear exchange does not occur in the short term, the acute sense of nuclear threat that has been experienced for over five decades by North Koreans as a result of US strategic deterrence is now likely to be keenly felt by fellow Koreans south of the 38th Parallel and Japanese across the waters of the Sea of Japan. China, too, must surely feel


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