Dartmouth 2012 1 nextgen blocks
Downgrade coming – can’t address debt
Download 1 Mb.
|
- Navigate this page:
- No impact to downgrades
- Short-term spending doesn’t affect debt outlook – Larger cycles and trends control fiscal adjustments Auerbach
- 7. Political uncertainty collapses confidence and demand – Causes recession Reuters 12 Reuters, 6-25
- 8. US debt is more stable and trustworthy Nelson
- Federalism – No Link The federal government has a constitutional obligation to invest in infrastructure including airports ACG
- Dedev Our plan sustains peace
- Growth solves global conflict Marquardt, 5
- Transition fails – people will revert back to the growth mentality Kornai 2k
- Collapse causes massive transition wars Panzner 8
- tensions will give rise to fullscale military encounters, often with minimal provocation
- Turbulent conditions will encourage aggressive saber rattling and interdictions by rogue nations running amok.
- as the beginnings of a new world war
- Oil DA — No Link NextGen reduces fuel consumption but increases aviation capacity and efficiency AIA, 2010
Downgrade coming – can’t address debtThe Hill 12 (Geneva Sands, the Hill, “Sen. Coburn: 'No doubt' US credit rating will be downgraded again,” 5/23/12, http://thehill.com/video/senate/229105-coburn-no-doubt-us-credit-will-be-downgraded-again-)hhs-ps The United States suffered the first downgrade to its credit rating in history when Standard & Poor's reduced the nation's rating from AAA to AA+ last August. "We should see another downgrade, because we have not done the structural things that will fix our country," he added. The battle over last summer's debt crisis was reignited when House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) vowed earlier this month that the House would only raise the federal government’s $16.4 trillion debt ceiling if Democrats agree to further spending cuts and entitlement reforms. When asked if he agreed with Boehner's decision to push forward the tumultuous debt-ceiling debate, Coburn said, "I think that's exactly what our founders had in mind." He argued that the credit rating wasn't downgraded because of deadlock in Congress, but rather because the biggest cost drivers of U.S. debt were not addressed. Coburn, who was a member of President Obama's fiscal commission, called for changes to Medicare and Social Security, saying in order to stem the mounting U.S. debt, earnings limitations and age requirements will have to be reformed. "Those are all things people don't want to hear, but it's going to happen, because if we don't do it, the people who are loaning us the money are going to make us do it," he said. The GOP senator predicted that if nothing is done to reduce the federal debt, in two to five years the United States will face the same economic problems as Greece. No impact to downgrades —The EU is collapsing, and China’s growth is declining as because its housing bubble is popping. Global investors have no where safer in the world to put their money than the U.S. treasury. Thus, interest rates will continue to be extremely low. Turn – we boost the economy … Spending is consistently increasing now under Obama – Their figures are a numbers game AFP, 12 AFP, 5-27-12, [“FACT CHECK: Obama off on thrifty spending claim,” Andrew Taylor, http://lubbockonline.com/election/election-general/2012-05-27/fact-check-obama-thrifty-spending-claim#.T-kW2JLm7fs] E. Liu A fairer calculation would give Obama much of the responsibility for an almost 10 percent budget boost in 2009, then a 13 percent increase over 2010-2013, or average annual growth of spending of just more than 3 percent over that period. So, how does the administration arrive at its claim? First, there’s the Troubled Assets Relief Program, the official name for the Wall Street bailout. First, companies got a net $151 billion from TARP in 2009, making 2010 spending look smaller. Then, because banks and Wall Street firms repaid a net $110 billion in TARP funds in 2010, Obama is claiming credit for cutting spending by that much. The combination of TARP lending in one year and much of that money being paid back in the next makes Obama’s spending record for 2010 look $261 billion thriftier than it really was. Only by that measure does Obama “cut” spending by 1.8 percent in 2010 as the analysis claims. The federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also makes Obama’s record on spending look better than it was. The government spent $96 billion on the Fannie-Freddie takeovers in 2009 but only $40 billion on them in 2010. By the administration’s reckoning, the $56 billion difference was a spending cut by Obama. Taken together, TARP and the takeover of Fannie and Freddie combine to give Obama an undeserved $317 billion swing in the 2010 figures and the resulting 1.8 percent cut from 2009. A fairer reading is an almost 8 percent increase. Those two bailouts account for $72 billion more in cuts in 2011. Obama supported the bailouts. There’s also the question of how to treat the 2009 fiscal year, which actually began Oct. 1, 2008, almost four months before Obama took office. Typically, the remaining eight months get counted as part of the prior president’s spending since the incoming president usually doesn’t change it much until the following October. The MarketWatch analysis assigned 2009 to former President George W. Bush, though it gave Obama responsibility that year for a $140 million chunk of the 2009 stimulus bill. But Obama’s role in 2009 spending was much bigger than that. For starters, he signed nine spending bills funding every Cabinet agency except Defense, Veterans Affairs and Homeland Security. While the numbers don’t jibe exactly, Obama bears the chief responsibility for an 11 percent, $59 billion increase in non-defense spending in 2009. Then there’s a 9 percent, $109 billion increase in combined defense and non-defense appropriated outlays in 2010, a year for which Obama is wholly responsible. As other critics have noted, including former Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Holtz-Eakin, the MarketWatch analysis also incorporates CBO’s annual baseline as its estimate for fiscal years 2012 and 2013. That gives Obama credit for three events unlikely to occur: —$65 billion in 2013 from automatic, across-the-board spending cuts slated to take effect next January. —Cuts in Medicare payments to physicians. —The expiration of refundable tax cuts that are “scored” as spending in federal ledgers. Lawmakers are unlikely to allow the automatic cuts to take full effect, but it’s at best a guessing game as to what will really happen in 2013. A better measure is Obama’s request for 2013. “You can only make him look good by ignoring the early years and adopting the hope and not the reality of the years in his budget,” said Holtz-Eakin, a GOP economist and president of the American Action Forum, a free market think tank. So how does Obama measure up? If one assumes that TARP and the takeover of Fannie and Freddie by the government as one-time budgetary anomalies and remove them from calculations — an approach taken by Holtz-Eakin — you get the following picture: —A 9.7 percent increase in 2009, much of which is attributable to Obama. —A 7.8 percent increase in 2010, followed by slower spending growth over 2011-13. Much of the slower growth reflects the influence of Republicans retaking control of the House and their budget and debt deal last summer with Obama. All told, government spending now appears to be growing at an annual rate of roughly 3 percent over the 2010-2013 period, rather than the 0.4 percent claimed by Obama and the MarketWatch analysis. Short-term spending doesn’t affect debt outlook – Larger cycles and trends control fiscal adjustments Auerbach, Robert D. Burch Professor of Economics and Law at the University of California, Berkeley, 11 Alan J Auerbach, Robert D. Burch Professor of Economics and Law at the University of California, Berkeley, 7-11, [“Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability in Major Economies,” www.bis.org/publ/work361.pdf] E. Liu These short-term trajectories clearly are attention-getting. For some countries, such as Greece, there is little need to look beyond them to know that a large and immediate fiscal 2 adjustment is needed. But debt-GDP ratios alone typically do not tell us how long countries have before they must make fiscal adjustments or how large these adjustments need to be. Some countries, for example Italy and Japan, have maintained high debt-GDP ratios for some time. Also, for countries not necessarily facing any short-run crisis, these projections may provide an inadequate picture of underlying fiscal imbalances. This is because the factors contributing to short-term debt accumulation differ substantially from those that will affect debt accumulation over the longer term, after the next few years, factors that have little to do with the business cycle and the rate of economic recovery, and much more to do with demographic change and the associated changes in government spending and tax collections.
(Reuters) - The tepid U.S. recovery is stalling for the third summer in a row, and Washington yet again is hurtling toward a showdown over taxes and spending that could push the economy back into recession. Sound familiar? To weary voters and investors, dysfunction in Washington is no longer news. The ongoing uncertainty on everything from taxes to transportation has undercut the economy as battle lines harden ahead of what is sure to be the most expensive presidential election in history. The Reuters Washington Summit next week, from June 25 to 27, will shed light on how the coming months could play out. In interviews at the Reuters office in Washington, key lawmakers, campaign officials, political operators and budget analysts will offer insight into their strategies for navigating the coming turbulence. The November 6 matchup between Democratic President Barack Obama and his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, could determine whether the United States chooses new stimulus programs or further spending cuts in the years ahead. The elections could determine which party controls Congress as well. But the elections are not the only question mark. Thousands of construction workers could be laid off if Congress does not resolve a highway funding bill by the end of the month. Student loan rates are also due to double on July 1 if Congress does not act, potentially draining more money out of the economy. More threatening is the "fiscal cliff" - automatic spending cuts and tax hikes that could drag the economy back into recession in January if Democrats and Republicans do not strike a deal on taxes and debt reduction. And the ugly debate over whether to raise the federal debt ceiling, which hammered consumer confidence last summer and prompted a first-ever downgrade of the U.S. government's debt rating, is likely to return early next year. "This uncertainty leads firms to cut back or defer hiring and investment decisions. It also drives consumers to put off buying new goods. As a result, uncertainty stalls both the corporate and consumer sector drivers of a recovery," wrote Steven J. Davis of the University of Chicago and Nick Bloom and Scott Baker of Stanford University. The trio's "policy uncertainty" index is creeping back up toward levels last seen after the August 2011 debt ceiling showdown. 8. US debt is more stable and trustworthy Nelson, Analyst in International Trade and Finance 12 Rebecca M. Nelson, Analyst in International Trade and Finance, 2-29-12, [“Sovereign Debt in Advanced Economies: Overview and Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41838.pdf] E. Liu Some analysts,52 as well as some Members of Congress, have expressed concern that the United States is headed towards a debt crisis similar to those experienced by some Eurozone countries, including Greece, Ireland, and Portugal. They are concerned about loss of investor confidence and the loss of the United States’ ability to borrow at reasonable interest rates. Like these Eurozone countries, it is argued, the United States has been reliant on foreign investors to fund a large budget deficit, resulting in rising debt levels and increasing vulnerability to a sudden reversal in investor confidence. S&P’s downgrade of long-term U.S. debt in August 2011 reinforced concerns about the U.S. commitment and ability to repay its debt. Other economists argue that the U.S. debt position is much stronger than that of the Eurozone economies in crisis.53 Unlike Greece, Portugal, and Ireland, the United States has a floating exchange rate and its currency is an international reserve currency, which can alleviate many of the pressures associated with rising debt levels.54 Additionally, they argue that the stronger levels of economic growth and the lower borrowing costs of the United States put U.S. debt levels on a more sustainable path over time. Even with the S&P downgrade, the U.S. credit rating is still higher than the crisis countries. The United States also has a strong historical record of debt repayment that helps bolster its reputation in capital markets. Greece, by contrast, has been in a state of default about 50% of the time since independence in the 1830s.55 Bond market data indicate that investors do not view the United States in a similar light to Greece, Ireland, or Portugal. Figure 6 compares the spreads on Greek, Irish, Portuguese, U.S., and UK 10-year bonds (over 10-year German bonds) since 2008. Higher bond spreads indicate higher levels of risk. U.S. bond spreads have remained substantially lower than Greek, Irish, and Portuguese bond spreads throughout the Eurozone crisis. U.S. bond spreads have been much closer in value to UK bond spreads, even during the financial crisis that originated in the U.S. housing market. Federalism – No Link The federal government has a constitutional obligation to invest in infrastructure including airports ACG, Associated General Contractors of America, represents more than 33,000 firms including 7,500 of America's leading general contractors, 11 ACG, Associated General Contractors of America, represents more than 33,000 firms including 7,500 of America's leading general contractors, 5-20-11, [“Why and How the Federal Government Should Continue to Fund Vital Infrastructure in the New Age of Public Austerity,” http://www.mmsend50.com/link.cfm?r=33208529&sid=13749970&m=1370386&u=agca&s=http://www.agc.org/galleries/news/Case-for-Infrastructure-Reform.pdf] E. Liu One area where this question is likely to arise is federal investments in infrastructure, including highways, transit systems, airports, dams, levees, federal buildings and drinking & wastewater systems. Some are likely to wonder why federal taxpayers should help subsidize financing for drinking water in Louisville, pay into a pool of funds that will add new highway capacity in Richmond, or use general treasury funds to prevent flooding and speed barge traffic by improving locks along the Ohio River. The answer is that it is clearly in the national interest to invest in infrastructure. For example, there is a clear, constitutionally defined federal role for supporting interstate commerce by investing in transportation infrastructure. Likewise, there is a strong argument to be made that the federal government has a vital role to play in maintaining our national economic security by investing in the infrastructure that is vital to commerce. Indeed, the Constitution is quite clear that it is the responsibility of the federal government to facilitate interstate commerce. Today, the vast majority of that interstate commerce travels on America’s vast, interconnected network of highways, airports and waterways. That means that if Congress and the Administration want to fulfill their Constitutional obligation to facilitate interstate commerce, they must continue to make the investments needed to maintain sufficient quality and capacity along our interstate highway network, our waterways and ensure the safety of air travelers. It also is important to note that the federal programs for investing in highway and transit projects has traditionally been self-funded. Since the 1950s, highway users have, through a mixture of gas taxes and other use-related fees, provided all of the funds that go into the Highway Trust Fund. Until only recently all federal surface transportation investments had come from this self-funded Trust Fund. In other words, structured correctly, the federal surface transportation program does not have to cost anyone that doesn’t use the highway system a single penny. As important, there is a strong argument to be made for the fact that the proper role of the federal government is to create and set conditions favorable to private sector job creation. For example, in an economy where the difference between success and failure is often measured by a company’s ability to deliver goods quickly and efficiently, maintaining transportation infrastructure is as important to the success of the private sector as are stable and low tax rates, minimal red tape and regulations and consistent and stable rule of law. Dedev Our plan sustains peace by boosting the nation’s economy. NextGen does this by creating jobs and improving the productivity of businesses. - Prosperity reinforces peace, while bad economic times tend to spawn conflicts – that’s Royal 10 and Mead 9. Growth solves global conflict Marquardt, 5 (Michael J. Marquardt, Professor of Human Resource Development and International Affairs at George Washington University, “Globalization: The Pathway to Prosperity, Freedom and Peace,” Human Resource Development International, March 2005, Volume 8, Number 1, pg. 127-129, http://org8220renner.alliant.wikispaces.net/file/view/Marquardt.pdf) Perhaps the greatest value of globalization is its potential for creating a world of peace. Economic growth has been identified as one of the strongest forces that turn people away from conflict and wars among groups, tribes, and nations. Global companies strongly discourage governments from warring against countries in which they have investments. Focusing on economic growth encourages cooperation and living in relative peace (Marquardt, 2001, 2002)
Janos. Professor of economics at Harvard. Winter 2000. Journal of Economic Perspectives. Volume 14, Number 1. Online. Self-evidently, a mixed system is in place during the transition from capitalism to socialism, and in the transition from socialism to capitalism. But apart from the countries undergoing the great transformations, several other countries operated in mixed systems for a long time as well. India offers a prime example, with much more state-ownership and bureaucratic control than most other capitalist countries, and a ruling party with an ideology exhibiting some socialist features for two or three decades. However, the party did not include in its program the elimination of private property nor the market, nor did it seek the retention of power at all costs. Combinations similar in many respects can be found in certain periods of the histoty of other developing countries. It is too early to reach a final judgement, but the study of these episodes so far suggests that the mixed cases tend to return eventually to the path of capitalist development. Collapse causes massive transition wars Panzner 8 (Michael J. Panzner, faculty at the New York Institute of Finance, 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets who has worked in New York and London for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and JPMorgan Chase, 2008, “Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse”, Revised and Updated Edition, p. 136-138) Many will wonder whether the United States might renege on some of its fi nancial obligations or even declare an outright default on its once AAA securities. Likely adding to a widespread sense of panic will be the exodus from an array of global fi at currencies into gold, silver, property, and other tangible assets, which can hold their value in a world of government fi nances run amok. Needless to say, systemic fi nancial pressures and domino-like bank failures will make preservation of capital the utmost concern. Rising angst will also wreak havoc with links among markets, fi nancial systems, economies, and countries. Many people could fi nd themselves subject to stricter government controls or even fi nd avenues closed off as a result of attempts to stem contagion effects. The widespread urge to withdraw will feed rising xenophobia, already infl amed by illegal immigration, unfair trade practices, and leaking borders. Playing to populist sentiment, politicians around the country will respond enthusiastically to calls for restrictions on foreigners. This will further feed a brain drain, as scientists, students, and other temporary visa holders are left with little choice but to uproot and go elsewhere, further sapping America’s economic resiliency. Continuing calls for curbs on the fl ow of fi nance and trade will inspire the United States and other nations to spew forth protectionist legislation like the notorious Smoot-Hawley bill. Introduced at the start of the Great Depression, it triggered a series of tit-for-tat economic responses, which many commentators believe helped turn a serious economic downturn into a prolonged and devastating global disaster. But if history is any guide, those lessons will have been long forgotten during the next collapse. Eventually, fed by a mood of desperation and growing public anger, restrictions on trade, fi nance, investment, and immigration will almost certainly intensify. Authorities and ordinary citizens will likely scrutinize the cross-border movement of Americans and outsiders alike, and lawmakers may even call for a general crackdown on nonessential travel. Meanwhile, many nations will make transporting or sending funds to other countries exceedingly diffi cult. As desperate offi cials try to limit the fallout from decades of ill-conceived, corrupt, and reckless policies, they will introduce controls on foreign exchange. Foreign individuals and companies seeking to acquire certain American infrastructure assets, or trying to buy property and other assets on the cheap thanks to a rapidly depreciating dollar, will be stymied by limits on investment by noncitizens. Those efforts will cause spasms to ripple across economies and markets, disrupting global payment, settlement, and clearing mechanisms. All of this will, of course, continue to undermine business confi - dence and consumer spending. In a world of lockouts and lockdowns, any link that transmits systemic fi nancial pressures across markets through arbitrage or portfolio-based risk management, or that allows diseases to be easily spread from one country to the next by tourists and wildlife, or that otherwise facilitates unwelcome exchanges of any kind will be viewed with suspicion and dealt with accordingly. The rise in isolationism and protectionism will bring about ever more heated arguments and dangerous confrontations over shared sources of oil, gas, and other key commodities as well as factors of production that must, out of necessity, be acquired from less-than-friendly nations. Whether involving raw materials used in strategic industries or basic necessities such as food, water, and energy, efforts to secure adequate supplies will take increasing precedence in a world where demand seems constantly out of kilter with supply. Disputes over the misuse, overuse, and pollution of the environment and natural resources will become more commonplace. Around the world, such tensions will give rise to fullscale military encounters, often with minimal provocation. In some instances, economic conditions will serve as a convenient pretext for confl icts that stem from cultural and religious differences. Alternatively, nations may look to divert attention away from domestic problems by channeling frustration and populist sentiment toward other countries and cultures. Enabled by cheap technology and the waning threat of American retribution, terrorist groups will likely boost the frequency and scale of their horrifying attacks, bringing the threat of random violence to a whole new level. Turbulent conditions will encourage aggressive saber rattling and interdictions by rogue nations running amok. Age-old clashes will also take on a new, more heated sense of urgency. China will likely assume an increasingly belligerent posture toward Taiwan, while Iran may embark on overt colonization of its neighbors in the Mideast. Israel, for its part, may look to draw a dwindling list of allies from around the world into a growing number of confl icts. Some observers, like John Mearsheimer, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, have even speculated that an “intense confrontation” between the United States and China is “inevitable” at some point. More than a few disputes will turn out to be almost wholly ideological. Growing cultural and religious differences will be transformed from wars of words to battles soaked in blood. Long-simmering resentments could also degenerate quickly, spurring the basest of human instincts and triggering genocidal acts. Terrorists employing biological or nuclear weapons will vie with conventional forces using jets, cruise missiles, and bunker-busting bombs to cause widespread destruction. Many will interpret stepped-up confl icts between Muslims and Western societies as the beginnings of a new world war. Dedev—A2 Resource scarcity Tech innovation and resource substitution solves scarcity – green revolution and oil crisis prove Eastin et al 10 ( Josh Eastin Department of Political Science, 101 Gowen Hall, Box 353530, University of Washington, Seattle. Reiner Grundmann Sociology and Public Policy, Aston University, School of Languages and Social Sciences, Aseem Prakash Department of Political Science, 39 Gowen Hall, Box 353530, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-3530, USA, The two limits debates: ‘‘Limits to Growth’’ and climate change http://www2.lse.ac.uk/researchAndExpertise/units/mackinder/pdf/Futures_LtG-CC_2010.pdf Arguably, the Limits to Growth report insufficiently recognized or factored in the human capacity for technological innovation. Technological innovation and market forces can, at least partially, mitigate resource scarcity by facilitating resource substitution. This argument was made by a host of scholars shortly following the publication of LtG, notably Julian Simon [21] and Herman Kahn [22] (see also [23]). The food crisis in some parts of the world was averted by the ‘‘green revolution’’ that entailed the introduction of new technology (high yielding varieties of seeds coupled with the systematic application of pesticides, fertilizers and irrigation), and policy changes (e.g. altering terms of trade between rural and urban areas). If the current food crisis persists, it would be interesting to see if it leads to investment in the development of ‘‘second wave’’ of green revolution technologies (or the third wave if genetically engineered crops are to be labeled as the second wave). The oil crises of 1973 and 1979 illustrated that exogenous shocks on primary resource availability can spur the development of new resources and technologies. Although these ‘‘solutions’’ deferred issues of resource depletion into the (then) future (and our present), the broader lesson is that under certain conditions, human ingenuity and adaptability, often mediated through governmental intervention, can alter patterns of consumption and production, at least at the margins. In this capacity, the social, political, and economic dimensions of human response need to be anticipated, and if possible, accounted for in making predictions about resource scarcity. However, despite the importance of anticipating public responses to resource price changes, as Kempton et al. point out, it is puzzling that the public does not take greater advantage of cost savings through energy conservation, even in the face of governmental efforts to promote cost savings through energy conservation [59]. Oil DA — No Link NextGen reduces fuel consumption but increases aviation capacity and efficiency AIA, 2010 [Aerospace Industries Association”“Aerospace and Defense: THE STRENGTH TO LIFT AMERICA” http://www.aia-aerospace.org/assets/NAD_Booklet.pdf] NextGen’s satellite-based air transportation network stresses adaptability by enabling aircraft to immediately adjust to everchanging factors, such as weather, traffic congestion, aircraft position, flight trajectory patterns and security issues. By 2025, all aircraft and airports in U.S. airspace will be connected to the NextGen network and will continually share information in real time using cutting-edge innovations in areas such as weather forecasting and digital communications to improve efficiency and safety as well as absorb the predicted increase in air traffic. NextGen will enable more aircraft to fly more closely together on more direct routes, thus reducing delays and helping to reduce aviation’s carbon emissions, fuel consumption and noise. Through targeted improvements in ground infrastructure, air traffic procedures and aircraft equipment, maximum benefits will be realized by the flying public. To take in NextGen’s full potential, experts believe an allocation from the U.S. Treasury’s general fund above 25 percent is needed until the program is fully implemented.
Politics (Regular) Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. Objective files -> Pop Warner History files -> North Carolina Inclusion Initiative Mapping Where Children with ieps are Being Served Purpose files -> Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Program Data: Standard 1 Exhibit 4d files -> Hanban – asia society confucius classrooms network 2010 request for proposal files -> Northern England’s set-jetting locations Download 1 Mb. Share with your friends:
|