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DEM UNITY KEYDemocratic unity key to the agenda. Gerstein 8 (Dan, political communications consultant and commentator based in New York, founder and president of Gotham Ghostwriter, formerly served as communications director to Sen. Joe Lieberman, Forbes, December 3, http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/12/02/obama-defense-appointments-oped-cx_dg_1203gerstein.html) Here, we can anticipate one of the trickiest tests of Obama's presidency. While he tries to govern from the pragmatic center on national security, he must manage the high expectations and inevitable disappointments of his strongest supporters. His liberal activist base may be relatively small, but its members can be extremely distracting and often destructive. Witness the successful campaign the left-wing blogosphere waged to derail the nomination of John Brennan, who had been considered the leading candidate for Obama's CIA director. That squabble took place off-stage and was totally overshadowed by Clinton's appointment. But Obama won't have that luxury once he's in office. The commentariat will be closely watching and inflating every intra-party fight, the most potent catnip for pundits. At a minimum, these spats could suck up precious time and political capital as Obama works to defuse them. At worst, they could inflame the latent divisions in Congress and sidetrack key elements of Obama's agenda. BASE UNITY IS THE KEY STARTING POINT FOR ENSURING AGENDA PASSAGE Bond & Fleisher 96. (Jon R. and Richard professor in Political Science - Texas A&M and Professor in Political Science. Fordham - 1996. "The President in Legislation" p.120) For majority presidents, unity in the party base is a key ingredient of success. When a majority president's base is unified, the chances of victory approach certainty. If the base is split, the probability of victory drops considerably. And the base is frequently split. In parliamentary systems, partisan control of the legislature virtually assures victories; in the United States, having more members in Congress who are predisposed to support the president is an advantage, but one insufficient to guarantee victories. AT: DEMS KEYIf Obama angers the left, it only boosts capital Weigant 8 (Chris Weigant is a political commentator. He has been a regular contributor to Arianna Huffington’s The Huffington Post since June of 2006, “How Will Obama Enrage The Left?” Huffington Post 12/3/08 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-weigant/how-will-obama-enrage-the_b_148246.html) I hate to rain on anyone's parade, but Obama is guaranteed to disappoint. The right wing won't be terribly disappointed, of course, since they'll have plenty to complain about for the next four-to-eight years. The only disappointing thing to them will be that Obama will not turn out to be the boogeyman they created in an effort to scare the heck out of voters. This means Obama won't be as effective a Republican fundraising tool, since he won't be doing all those things that terrify Republican donors. The left wing, however, is going to get disappointed with a short sharp shock, soon after Obama enters office. Because newly-inaugurated President Obama is going to pick one issue and swiftly smack the left in the face, by refusing to do what they want him to do. This will be a calculated move, and will likely pay off enormous political dividends for Obama over the life of his presidency. Call it his "Sister Souljah moment," if you will. By appearing to "stand up" to the left wing, Obama will be seen as charting his own course as a strong and independent leader, beholden to no special interest group of radical progressives. That's how the news media will portray it, at any rate. His approval ratings will likely rise after he does so, since it will serve to calm fears from suburban Republicans and Independents that Obama is going to make too many radical changes too fast. But it's going to absolutely enrage the left. You can bet the farm on that one. Taking the long view, however, I believe it will actually help Obama get more progressive laws passed. It's kind of doublethink, but bear with me. If Obama starts off his presidency showing strength and independence from the left, it will mean a lot more people out there are going to give him the benefit of the doubt over time. They didn't believe the cries of "Socialist!" in the election, and they're going to get more comfortable with Obama as a result. It will then be up to Congress to challenge him by passing laws even more sweeping than Obama asked for. Which Obama will (perhaps with a show of reluctance) then sign. Meaning more progressive legislation actually gets passed in the end. If Obama removes his "lightning rod" target for the right wing early on, over the long run he'll be able to get better laws passed, with more support from the public than they would normally have. I could be monstrously wrong about all of this, to be sure. But from watching his campaign, and listening to what he actually said, the portrait of Obama I am left with is one of cautiousness and pragmatism, and not of some sort of progressive icon. Exhibit A in my thinking is the FISA bill he voted for. Exhibit B would have to be the numerous times he reluctantly moved left, without actually fully supporting a populist or liberal agenda. Exhibit C is his intervention with how the Senate treated Joe Lieberman. And that's without even examining his cabinet choices. All of these things point to a very centrist course for an Obama administration, with lots of compromises with political foes. A good test case will be how President Obama handles the torture question. Will he convene a commission to investigate? Will he offer blanket immunity (or even -- gasp! -- pardons) to get honest answers about what went on? Or will he sweep the whole thing under the rug and "look to the future and not the past," while urging everyone to move on? The torture question is merely the tip of the iceberg (the best bad example, as it were) in how Obama is going to handle Bush's legacy. What Bush policies is Obama going to immediately rectify? What Bush actions will he reverse, even if it takes months? We've never really gotten clear and consistent answers as to how Obama is going to handle the Bush mess, which leaves me wondering what he will actually do when he gets the chance. But it could be almost any issue, it doesn't just have to be how to deal with Bush's legacy. Barack Obama will likely not make the mistake Bill Clinton did when he entered office with the "gays in the military" issue. Clinton wanted to do what was right, the military balked, and we wound up with "Don't ask, don't tell," which has been a complete disaster. But the lesson here is that Clinton started off by picking a fight with his opponents -- with a bold move that he knew they would hate. I think Obama is going to do the opposite. I think he's going to come out with some bold move that he knows the left is absolutely going to abhor. [Feel free to offer your own thoughts in the comments as to what exactly this is going to turn out to be, or even if you think I'm barking up the wrong tree entirely.] Because I simply cannot get rid of the feeling that, sometime next January or February, President Obama is going to make a point of picking a fight with some of his own most fervent supporters. They will then denounce him for his outrageous action, and go ballistic in an entirely predictable fashion. And (this is the part I'm least sure about, I have to admit) Obama will emerge from the fray even stronger politically than ever, with more "political capital" to spend on getting the rest of his agenda done. In other words, although it will require more of a "big picture" or "long view of history" type of viewpoint, I don't think it'll be as bad as it will first seem when it happens. NO IMPACT TO ANGERING THE DEMOCRATS – THEY WON’T TURN ON OBAMA. Chicago Tribune 8. [11/7, Lexis] Michael O'Hanlon, a national security expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said that Obama has enough political capital to free him from "pleasing the left" of the Democratic Party as he presses forward with his strategy for Iraq and Afghanistan. "Obama to the left is what Ronald Reagan was to the right," O'Hanlon said. "He can do no wrong. If you're ending the war anyway, and it is a question if you're doing it in 1 1/2 , 2 1/2 or 3 1/2 years. ... He's already moving things in the direction they want him to." Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. Objective files -> Pop Warner History files -> North Carolina Inclusion Initiative Mapping Where Children with ieps are Being Served Purpose files -> Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Program Data: Standard 1 Exhibit 4d files -> Hanban – asia society confucius classrooms network 2010 request for proposal files -> Northern England’s set-jetting locations Download 421.92 Kb. Share with your friends:
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