Index – start politics da

START GOOD: AFGHANISTAN

START KEY TO RUSSIAN COOPERATION ON AFGHANISTAN.

Last Friday President Obama met with Russian President Medvedev on the outskirts of the Copenhagen climate change conference hoping to cut through remaining obstaclesin the agreement to replace the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which expired on December 5.  For Obama those talks are less about slashing our nuclear arsenal and mostly about buying Russian cooperation on the Iranian nuclear issue and gaining Russian help in Afghanistan.   cont… What START-related incentives might Obama offer Moscow?   First, Moscow would like to have parityin nuclear delivery systems with the U.S.  This is critical to Moscow which can’t afford to sustain more than about 550 nuclear-weapons delivery systems.  The new START agreement reduces strategic platforms to below 800, down from the old limit of 1,600.  The U.S. can afford to sustain a much larger force than Russia.  Arguably the U.S. should keep a powerful deterrent because it is also challenged by an emergent China which is rapidly growing its nuclear platforms.  But Obama may be ready to compromise.  America’s atomic triad -- ground- and sea-based missiles and bombers -- is in jeopardy.  The administration has no plans to replace our aging ballistic missiles and in April, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates canceled research on a future bomber saying he wanted “…a better understanding of the need, the requirement, and the technology.”     Second, Moscow wants the U.S. to accept a smaller nuclear arsenal to off-set America’s enormous conventional advantage.  The U.S. should only accept a smaller arsenal if it goes ahead with modernization that keeps all enemies in check. cont… Obama might buy Moscow’s help with Iran andAfghanistan by offering the aforementioned START-related incentives.  But he had better get something from START too and without endangering our security.

The September 11 attacks starkly demonstrated the common threat of terrorism to America and Russia. Moscow has since provided important assistance to the United States and its NATO allies in Afghanistan; however, this help may be at risk if U.S.-Russia and NATO-Russia relations weaken further. After initially acquiescing to a U.S. military presence in the region, Russia has complicated U.S. efforts to maintain air bases in central Asia to support operations against the Taliban and al-Qaeda, including Kyrgyzstan’s recent decision that the United States should close its Manas base. This in part reflects U.S.-Russian differences over both Afghanistan and the wider central Asian region. It also starkly illustrates the potential costs of treating the former Soviet Union as a competitive battleground rather than a zone of cooperation. Though the Russian government has an interest in preventing the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan, Moscow might revoke its permission for transit of NATO cargoes to Afghanistan via Russia if NATO-Russia relations deteriorate further. Greater cooperation in Afghanistan is far more desirable and could build on past collaboration to develop deeper intelligence sharing and improved coordination with Russia’s long-standing allies in the country. However, it will require greater willingness to consider Russian perspectives.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said the insurgency in Afghanistan could spread throughout the Middle East and Central Asia unless it is “completely eradicated,” Press TV reported Aug. 27. Mottaki said the insurgency in Pakistan originated in Afghanistan and likewise could “spread not only to the Arab countries in the Persian Gulf region but also to India and Central Asia.” Also, foreign powers, specifically in Europe, are deliberately creating insecurity in the region, said Mottaki.

EXT: AFGHAN STABILITY KEY TO PAKISTAN

AFGHANI INSTABILITY SPILLS OVER TO PAKISTAN.

THEIR 9. [ J Alexander, director for Afghanistan and Pakistan at the U.S. Institute of Peace. “Afghanistan Is Still Worth the Fight” Foreign Policy -- Nov 30 -- http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/11/30/afghanistan_is_still_worth_the_fight?page=full]

Concern about Pakistani stability does not require, as some have suggested, that we should do less in Afghanistan so that we can do more in Pakistan. The reality is that the United States has a much greater capacity to act in Afghanistan, including ground forces, intelligence assets, and a partnership with the Afghan government. We are far more constrained in Pakistan, and U.S. efforts there are viewed with much greater suspicion. Thus, one of the greatest impacts we can have on Pakistani stability is to enhance Afghan stability.

FAILURE IN AFGHANISTAN COLLAPSES PAKISTAN – CAUSES TERRORISM, INDO PAK WAR, AND GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR.

MORGAN 7. [Stephen J. former member of the British Labour Party Executive Committee, political writer including books such as The Mind of a Terrorist Fundamentalist – the Cult of Al Qaeda -- “Better Another Taliban Afghanistan, than a Taliban NUCLEAR Pakistan” March 4 -- http://ezinearticles.com/?Better-Another-Taliban-Afghanistan,-than-a-Taliban-NUCLEAR-Pakistan?&id=475808]

However events may prove him sorely wrong. Indeed, his policy could completely backfire upon him. As the war intensifies, he has no guarantees that the current autonomy may yet burgeon into a separatist movement. Appetite comes with eating, as they say. Moreover, should the Taliban fail to re-conquer al of Afghanistan, as looks likely, but captures at least half of the country, then a Taliban Pashtun caliphate could be established which would act as a magnet to separatist Pashtuns in Pakistan. Then, the likely break up of Afghanistan along ethnic lines, could, indeed, lead the way to the break up of Pakistan, as well. Strong centrifugal forces have always bedevilled the stability and unity of Pakistan, and, in the context of the new world situation, the country could be faced with civil wars and popular fundamentalist uprisings, probably including a military-fundamentalist coup d’état. Fundamentalism is deeply rooted in Pakistan society. The fact that in the year following 9/11, the most popular name given to male children born that year was “Osama” (not a Pakistani name) is a small indication of the mood. Given the weakening base of the traditional, secular opposition parties, conditions would be ripe for a coup d’état by the fundamentalist wing of the Army and ISI, leaning on the radicalised masses to take power. Some form of radical, military Islamic regime, where legal powers would shift to Islamic courts and forms of shira law would be likely. Although, even then, this might not take place outside of a protracted crisis of upheaval and civil war conditions, mixing fundamentalist movements with nationalist uprisings and sectarian violence between the Sunni and minority Shia populations. The nightmare that is now Iraq would take on gothic proportions across the continent. The prophesy of an arc of civil war over Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq would spread to south Asia, stretching from Pakistan to Palestine, through Afghanistan into Iraq and up to the Mediterranean coast. Undoubtedly, this would also spill over into India both with regards to the Muslim community and Kashmir. Border clashes, terrorist attacks, sectarian pogroms and insurgency would break out. A new war, and possibly nuclear war, between Pakistan and India could not be ruled out. Atomic Al Qaeda Should Pakistan break down completely, a Taliban-style government with strong Al Qaeda influence is a real possibility. Such deep chaos would, of course, open a “Pandora's box” for the region and the world. With the possibility of unstable clerical and military fundamentalist elements being in control of the Pakistan nuclear arsenal, not only their use against India, but Israel becomes a possibility, as well as the acquisition of nuclear and other deadly weapons secrets by Al Qaeda. Invading Pakistan would not be an option for America. Therefore a nuclear war would now again become a real strategic possibility. This would bring a shift in the tectonic plates of global relations. It could usher in a new Cold War with China and Russia pitted against the US.

Directory: files
files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2
files -> Integer programming and game theory
files -> 4 Integer Programming
files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. Objective
files -> Pop Warner History
files -> North Carolina Inclusion Initiative Mapping Where Children with ieps are Being Served Purpose
files -> Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Program Data: Standard 1 Exhibit 4d
files -> Hanban – asia society confucius classrooms network 2010 request for proposal
files -> Northern England’s set-jetting locations

Download 421.92 Kb.

Share with your friends: