Strategic Cluster 1: Federally-led Structural Reform Agendas for Growth and Jobs
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Engagement Area: Power Sector Reform
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Outcome 1: Increased power generation and transmission capacity
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1.1: 16 percent increase in generation capacity supported by the WBG interventions by 2017.
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Megawatt
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6000 in 2012
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6960 by 2017
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PROJECTS:
Ongoing
Nigeria Power Sector Guarantee Project (P120207, FY13)
IFC Azura Edo IPP (32859, FY15)
IFC Seven Energy Project (FY15)
ASA:
Delivered
Unlocking Nigeria’s Gas Potential (P151162, FY15)
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Off track: There is no additional power generation yet since no new generation has been commissioned under the power sector guarantee supporting the Azura Edo Independent Power Project. The Azura power plant reached financial close in December 2015 and the construction has begun.
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1.2: 8 percent increase in transmission capacity.
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Mega Volt Amp
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8588 MVA on 330kV level in 2013
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9275 MVA on 330kV level in 2017
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PROJECTS:
Ongoing
Nigeria Electricity and Gas Improvement Project (P106172, FY09)
Pipeline
Nigeria Transmission Project (P146330)
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On track: The additional transmission capacity has been 360 MVA, representing 4 percent increase since 2014.
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Outcome 2: Improved the efficiency of electricity delivery
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2.1: AT and C losses of privatized DISCOs supported by the WBG. EBP reduced by 8 percentage points from 45% in 2013 to 37% in 2017.
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Percentage
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45%
in 2014
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37% in 2017
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PROJECTS:
Ongoing
Nigeria Electricity and Gas Improvement Project (P106172, FY09)
Pipeline
Nigeria Transmission Project (P146330)
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On track: Following the post privatization verification, the baseline for losses changed in November 2014 from 25 percent to 45 percent. The latest financial model of the tariff estimates the losses to be 40 percent in 2015 and 32 percent in 2016. EBP was reduced by 5 percent from 45 percent in 2015.
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Outcome 3: Improved access to modern lighting for the base-of-the –pyramid through supporting the value chain of procuring and distributing solar products such as lanterns and cook-stoves
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3.1: 1 million solar lanterns distributed.
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Million
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0 in 2013
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1 in 2017
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PROJECTS:
Ongoing
IFC
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Off track: The number of quality assured solar lanterns sold is 190,991 or 16 percent of the target as of December 2015. This is in line with budgeted figures. Program was launched in 2015. Experience in other markets (e.g. Kenya) indicates that a market transformation initiative requires a minimum of two years to make appreciable impact. During this period, the program is largely focusing on the foundational development activities that will create a sustainable off-grid market.
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3.2: 5 million people with improved energy services (assumes industry estimate of 5 people per household).
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Million
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0 in 2013
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5 in 2017
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ASA:
Ongoing
IFC Advisory Services - Lighting Africa Project
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Off track: This progress is measured by the number of people with access to modern off-grid lighting. As of December 2015, almost 1 million people have benefited from access to off-grid lighting.
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3.3: 100,000 tCO2 being GHG avoided (Key assumptions: (i) kerosene lamp emission factor (t/Coe/ltr) =0.0026 (ii) kerosene consumption per year for a lantern = 55 ltrs (iii) solar lantern to kerosene lamp displacement factor = 70%).
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Metric tons CO2/Year
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0 in 2013
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100,000 in 2017
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ASA:
Ongoing
IFC Advisory Services - Lighting Africa Project
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Off track: Through the transition to cleaner alternatives of kerosene for lighting, an average of 19,098 metric tons Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions had been avoided per year since 2013. Accumulatively, 19 percent of the target has been achieved as of December 2015.
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Engagement Area: Agriculture Productivity and Climate Change (Resilience)
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Outcome 4: Improved access of small farmers to inputs and technology, and increase in their average income
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4.1: Increased effectiveness of publicly supported seed and fertilizer distribution systems as measured by the increased number of farmers benefiting from those programs.
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Million
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1.2 in 2012
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5 in 2017
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PROJECTS:
Closed during the CPS period
Agriculture DPO I (P130012, FY14)
Ongoing
Fadama 3 (P096572, FY09)
Commercial Agriculture Development Project (P096648, FY09)
West Africa Agriculture Productivity Project (P117148, FY11)
Pipeline
Agriculture DPO II (P147398) – dropped to be folded into the new Federal DPF (P155951)
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Achieved: This indicator was supported by the Nigeria Agriculture Sector DPO that was closed in December 2014. The increased number of famer beneficiaries was 5.65 million according to the project ICR (Implementation Completion Report). For the remaining CPS period, this indicator is continuingly supported by the WAAPP, FADAMA III and CADP. Under FADAMA III, 493,805 farmers have access to the improved seed and fertilizer.
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4.2: Additional 20,000 hectares of improved irrigation in North and North-West areas.
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Hectare
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26,000 ha in 2014
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46,000 ha in 2017
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PROJECTS:
Ongoing
Transforming Irrigation and Water Resources Management in Nigeria Project (P123112, FY14)
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Off track: Additional 1795 ha irrigated under Fadama 3 project. The progress in implementing the Transforming Irrigation Management project, now in its second year, has been slowed down by the political transition, introduction of TSA, and security challenges in some of the project areas. Work at the first site is expected to start at the beginning of 2016 and the results are to be delivered by 2017.
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4.3: Rural households in supported Fadama areas reporting 40% increase in average household income (Baseline: N184, 240 in 2013: Target N257, 937 by 2016).
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Naira
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184,240 in 2013
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257,937in 2016
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PROJECTS:
Ongoing
Fadama 3 (P096572, FY09)
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On track: According to the Fadama Interim ICR (midline IE survey), 47.1 percent of the rural households beneficiaries in Fadama areas reported that their real income increased by 40 percent in December 2015.The average income of households in the areas has increased by 19 percent.
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Outcome 5: Improved horizontal coordination of small farmers
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5.1: Number of farmer associations and or marketing cooperatives established in supported areas.
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Number
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0 in 2013
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7,400 in 2017
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PROJECTS:
Ongoing
Fadama 3 (P096572, FY09)
Commercial Agriculture Development Project (P096648, FY09)
Pipeline
Staple Crop Processing Zones Project (P148616)
ASA:
Delivered
Inclusive Markets (P147941, FY15)
Trade in Agricultural Markets (P132218, FY15)
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Off track: A total of 632 famer associations or marketing cooperatives had been established in participating states by December 2015, representing 7 percent of the target. Among which, 518 were supported by Fadama 3 and 114 were supported by CADP, respectively.
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Outcome 6: Improved road transportation connectivity of rural markets
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6.1: Additional 2,000 km or rural roads rehabilitated and maintained in supported states.
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Kilometer
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0 in 2013
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2,000 in 2017
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PROJECTS:
Closed during the CPS period
Rural Access and Mobility Project 1 (P072644, FY08)
Ongoing
Rural Access and Mobility Project 2 (P095003, FY13)
Commercial Agriculture Development Project (P096648, FY09)
ASA:
Delivered
Nigeria Urbanization Review (P143476, FY15)
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Off track: A total of 1032 km of roads, or 52 percent of the target, had been rehabilitated and maintained by June 2015. RAMP 1, RAMP 2 and CAPD are the main projects contributing to this indicator. The projects span across last and current CPS. Under RAMP1, a total of 470 km of rural roads have been rehabilitated since 2008, and this should carry over to this CPS period as the rehabilitated roads need to be maintained over time. Similarly, under the RAMP 2, a total of 245 kilometers have been rehabilitated since December 2011. Under CADP, a total of 307 km has been constructed and/or rehabilitated since 2010.
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6.2: Additional 2 million people in rural areas gained access to an all-season road in supported states.
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Million
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0 in 2013
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2 in 2017
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PROJECTS:
Closed during the CPS period
Rural Access and Mobility Project 1 (P072644, FY08)
Ongoing
Rural Access and Mobility Project 2 (P095003, FY13)
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On track: Under RAMP1, there has been a total of 1.6 million rural population with access to an all-season road since 2008. And this result is advised to carry over to this CPS period for the reason mentioned above. The RAMP2 has added 0.015 million people in rural areas for the progress since December 2011. 80.7 percent of the target has been completed.
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Outcome 7: Enhanced country’s preparedness to respond to natural hazards, climate risks and natural disasters (resilience)
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7.1: # ha of land treated for erosion.
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Hectare
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0 in 2013
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2,800 in 2017
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PROJECTS:
Ongoing
Nigeria Erosion and Watershed Management Project (P124905, FY12)
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Off track: A total of 110 Ha of targeted sub-watersheds have been treated for erosion with selected measures as of June 2015, representing 4 percent of the target.
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7.2: % of upgraded or new HydroMet stations providing data that are published annually and uploaded to the web.
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Percentage
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0 in 2013
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60 in 2017
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Off track: There has been no progress so far because the equipment for the stations has not been installed yet. The HydroMet equipment were procured, shipped, and have arrived at the Lagos port for clearance.
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Engagement Area: Financing For Development
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Outcome 8: Expanded financing opportunities for SMEs
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8.1: Additional 100,000 loans provided to SMEs by 2017 by IFC.
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Number
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0 in 2013
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100,000 in 2017
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PROJECTS:
Ongoing
IFC – GTB
IFC – Diamond Bank
IFC – Access Bank
IFC – Ecobank
IFC – FCMB
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Off track: IFC Institutional Group (FIG) has stopped tracking the indicator ‘loans disbursed’ as a standard SME financing indicator as of 2015. The indicator is therefore reformulated to ‘loans outstanding to SMEs’. IFC clients FCMB, SKY Bank, Access Bank and Diamond Bank Projects contribute to this indicator. As of June 2015, there had been 33,700 outstanding loans providing to SMEs.
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8.2: Additional 2 million micro entrepreneurs provided with financial services by IFC.
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Million
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0 in 2013
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2 in 2017
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PROJECTS:
Ongoing
IFC – MicroCred MFB Nigeria
IFC – Advans Nigeria
IFC – ABMFB
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On track: This indicator is supported by IFC projects MicroCred MFB Nigeria, Advans Nigeria and ABMFB. The total number of current microfinance borrowers at IFC-supported MFIs as of June 2015 is 1.26 million.
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Outcome 9: Improved supply of longer term financing
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9.1: Percentage of long term financing > 2 years of outstanding private sector credit increased to 5% of the total private sector credit.
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Percentage
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0.13% in 2013
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5% in 2017
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PROJECTS:
Ongoing
Development Finance Project (P146319, FY15)
ASA:
Delivered
Boosting Financial Inclusion in Nigeria (P147939, FY15)
Inclusive Markets (P147941, FY15)
Investment Climate Assessment (P147940, FY15)
Nigeria Strengthening Deposit Insurance (P150497, FY16)
Ongoing
Programmatic Approach to Financial Sector Development (FY18)
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Off track: As of June 2015, long term financing which has more than 2 years repayment period accounted for 37 percent of the total credit. This indicator is attributed to the DPF that was approved in September 2014, although this particular result is not part of the results framework of the DPF.
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9.2: Percentage of housing finance loans in the financial sector increased to 5% of the total loans.
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Percentage
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0.3% in 2013
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5% in 2017
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PROJECTS:
Ongoing
Housing Finance Development Project (P131973, FY14)
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Off track: The percentage of housing finance loans in the financial sector in the financial sector has increased by 0.3 percent since 2013, reaching at 7 percent of the total loans. While this indicator is attributed to the Housing Finance project, the lack of good quality data makes it difficult to assess if the reported increase can be attributed to this project only. Also, the project is facing challenges associated with the weakened demand due to the ongoing economic crisis.
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9.3: Volume of corporate bond issues increased on average to 2 issues every year.
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Number
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0 in 2013
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8 in 2017
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Off track: This indicator is attributed to IFC instruments, but was eventually dropped/not monitored.
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Strategic Cluster 2: Quality, Effectiveness and Efficiency of Social Service Delivery at State Level for Greater Social Inclusion
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Engagement Area: Strengthening Community Driven Mechanisms for Social Inclusion, and Effectiveness of Social Protection Programs
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Outcome 10: Improved targeting of social protection and increased employment readiness of youth in supported states.
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10.1: Improved targeting of social protection programs in states as measured by the # of states using the unified registry of beneficiaries and common targeting mechanism.
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Number
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0 in 2013
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10 in 2017
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PROJECTS:
Ongoing
Youth Employment and Social Protection Project (P126964, FY13)
Community and Social Development (P090644, FY09)
Pipeline
National Social Safety Nets Project (P151488)
ASA:
Delivered
Sharing Prosperity in Nigeria: An Analytical Work Program on Jobs and Social Protection (P146872, FY15)
Improving Governance in Social Sectors (P132571, FY14)
Poverty Work Program (P157742, FY15)
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On track: There had been eight sates using the unified registry for selecting eligible beneficiaries for various interventions as of November 2015.
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10.2: Enhanced resilience of the youth participating in workfare programs in supported states as measured by the number of youths who received orientation and life skills training.
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Number
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0 in 2013
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100,000 in 2017
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PROJECTS:
Youth Employment and Social Protection Project (P126964, FY13)
Community and Social Development (P090644, FY09)
Pipeline
National Social Safety Nets Project (P151488)
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Off track: There is no result yet. The registry for youths to participate the orientation and life skills training has been finished. The intervention is ready to start.
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10.3: Increased in % of poor beneficiaries (lowest quintiles) from targeted poor households receiving cash transfers.
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Percentage
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0 in 2013
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40% by 2017
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PROJECTS:
Ongoing
Youth Employment and Social Protection Project (P126964, FY13)
Community and Social Development (P090644, FY09)
State Expenditure Effectiveness for Results (P121455)
Pipeline
National Social Safety Nets Project (P151488)
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Off track: The households to receive cash transfer have completed the registration process. The intervention is ready to start.
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Outcome 11: Increased Access of Poor and Vulnerable to Social and Economic Services
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11.1: 50 percent increase in the # of poor households with access to social and livelihood support services through community development plans in supported areas.
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Number
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900,000 in 2012
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1,350,000
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PROJECTS:
Ongoing
Community and Social Development (P090644)
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Achieved: A total of 1,550,000 households gained access to the social and livelihood support services in November 2015, representing 72 percent increase since 2012.
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Engagement Area: Coverage and Quality of Health Services
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Outcome 12: Improved coverage and quality of health service delivery
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12.1: The share of child deliveries that are assisted by trained health personnel in 3 states increases to 43 % by 2017.
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Percentage
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33% in 2013
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43% by 2017
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PROJECTS:
Ongoing
States Health Program Investment Project (P120798, FY12)
Nigeria Program to Support One Million Lives (P146583, FY15)
ASA:
Delivered
Nigeria Service Delivery Indicators (P145455, FY15)
SURE-P MCH Impact Evaluations (P144096, FY15)
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Achieved: The results of the annual health household survey in Nigeria (SMART) have been used for monitoring the project progress. According to the latest survey in 2015, the share of child deliveries assisted by trained health personnel in 3 states increased to 54.3 percent, already surpassing the 2017 target of the indicator.
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12.2: The share of children 12-23 months old who are fully immunized in 3 states increases to 45.4% by 2017.
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Percentage
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25.4% in 2013
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45.4% by 2017
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PROJECTS:
Ongoing
States Health Program Investment Project (P120798, FY12)
Nigeria Program to Support One Million Lives (P146583, FY15)
ASA:
Ongoing
NG-Quality Assessment/Resource Tracking (P132947)
Resource Tracking in Health in Nigeria (P152141)
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Achieved: According to the 2015 SMART survey, the share increased to 53.0 percent, already surpassing the original target.
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12.3: % of under-5 children sleeping under insecticide treated net the night preceding the survey increased from 44.6 % in 2010 to 60%.
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Percentage
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44.6% in 2010
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60% by 2017
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PROJECTS:
Closed during the CPS period
Malaria Booster Project (P097921, FY07)
ASA:
Delivered
NG-Malaria Control Program (P105846, FY16)
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Achieved: The main outcome data source is the Lot Quality Assurance Sampling Surveys (LQAS) conducted in 2006, 2010 and 2015. According to the latest LQAS survey, the percentage of children under five who slept under ITN during the previous night in Booster States is 74.4 percent. This has been a 27.8 percentage increase from the 2010 LQAS which showed 47.5 percent utilization.
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12.4: At least 80 % coverage with oral polio vaccine sustained in every state.
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Percentage
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December 2012, 90% coverage (8 endemic states average)
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80% by 2017
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PROJECTS:
Ongoing
Polio Eradication Support (P130865, FY13)
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Achieved: According to the two cluster surveys conducted by independent agencies – the Performance Audit for Partnership for Polio Eradication Project and the Performance Audit for Triggering International Development Association (IDA) Buy-down, eight surveyed states achieved 95.6 percent polio coverage in October 2015.
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12.5: % of pregnant women living with HIV who receive a complete course of antiretroviral prophylaxis to reduce the risk of mother to child transmission increased from 18% to 40%.
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Percentage
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18% in 2013
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40% by 2017
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PROJECTS:
Ongoing
HIV/AIDS Program Development Project II (P102119, FY09)
ASA:
Ongoing
Support to HPDP2 FSW Implementation (P154218)
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On track: According to the 2015 SMART Survey, the percentage has increased to 35.3 percent.
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Engagement Area: Efficiency, Equitable Access and Quality of Education Services
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Outcome 13: Improved learning environment and management
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13.1: 10,000 additional teachers in rural areas.
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Number
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31,243 in 2013, delivered by the results based financing of education services in 3 states
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41,243 in 2017
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PROJECTS:
Ongoing
State Education program Investment Project (P122124, FY13)
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On track: In 2014, all three states have met or surpassed their targets for deploying eligible teachers. Among which, Anambra reached at 2,597; Bauchi at 3,161; and Ekiti at 1,133. Therefore, the total teachers deployed to the rural areas reached at 6,891, or 69 percent of the target in 2014.
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13.2: 50% of supported schools demonstrate improvements in learning outcomes.
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Number
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4,000 supported schools in 2013, delivered by the results based financing of education services in 3 states
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2000 schools improved
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PROJECTS:
Ongoing
State Education program Investment Project (P122124, FY13)
Lagos Eko Secondary Education Project (P106280, FY09)
ASA:
Delivered
Governance and Financing of Basic Education in Nigeria
Skills for Competitiveness and Employability (P148688, FY14)
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On track: According to the coordinator of SEPIP, 1,200 schools have improved in the learning outcomes, representing 60 percent of the target. All three participating states (Anambra, Bauchi and Ekiti) have met their targets for measurement of student learning achievement, using approved assessment tools, with support from the Universal Basic Education Commission.
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Outcome 14: Strengthened responsiveness of public and private training institutions to skills demand
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14.1: Increased # of states with approved Strategic Plan for improving quality and relevance of TVE (Baseline 4 in 2013; Target 15 by 2017).
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Number
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4 in 2013
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15 by 2017
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PROJECTS:
Ongoing
State Education program Investment Project (P122124, FY13)
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On track: Eight States have achieved this indicator: Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, and Rivers (SEEFOR); Anambra, Bauchi, and Ekiti (SEPIP); as well as Lagos (Eko Project).
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Engagement Area: Coverage and Efficiency of Water Supply Services
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Outcome 15: Improved coverage and efficiency of water supply service in selected states
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15.1: # of people with access to improved water supply increased by 4 million (baseline: 9.2 million in 2013, target: 13.2 million in 2017).
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Million
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9.2 in 2013
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13.2 in 2017
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PROJECTS:
Closed during the CPS period:
National Urban Water Sector Reform Project II (P071391)
Ongoing
National Urban Water Sector Reform Project III (P123513, FY14)
ASA:
Delivered
State Water Agencies in Nigeria: A Performance Assessment - Economic Aspects of the Urban Water Sect (P150244, FY15)
Ongoing
Nigeria WASH Poverty Diagnostics (P158634)
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Off track: Under Urban Water 2 project, the number of people in urban areas provided with access to improved water sources had increased by 0.95 million as of November 2014. This indicator is also supported by the Urban Water 3 project with results to be delivered.
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15.2: Cost recovery for operation and maintenance increased in average by 45 percent in supported states by 2017.
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Percentage
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Lagos 55% in 2012; Cross River 66% in 2012; Kaduna 65% in 2012; Ogun 56% in 2012; Enugu 65% in 2012
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45% increase on average
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PROJECTS:
Closed during the CPS period
National Urban Water Sector Reform Project II (P071391)
Ongoing
National Urban Water Sector Reform Project III (P123513, FY14)
ASA:
Delivered
State Water Agencies in Nigeria: A Performance Assessment - Economic Aspects of the Urban Water Sect (P150244, FY15)
Ongoing
Nigeria WASH Poverty Diagnostics (P158634)
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Off track: Under Urban Water 2 project, the percentage of operation and maintenance costs recovered from revenue in Lagos and Cross Rivers states was 40 percent and 9 percent respectively, averaging 25 percent at end November 2015. This indicator is also supported by the Urban Water 3 project in Ekiti, Rivers and Bauchi states with results to be delivered.
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Foundational/Cross Cutting Cluster 3: Governance and Public Sector Management
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Outcome 16: Enhanced transparency on budget execution in targeted states and at Federal level
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16.1: # states and the Federal GoN with an integrated fully functioning financial information system producing and publishing consolidated quarterly financial statements within 14 days of end of each fiscal quarter.
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Number
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0 in 2012
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Federal GoN and 8 supported states in 2017
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Ongoing
Public Sector Governance Reform and Development Project (P097026, FY10)
State Employment and Expenditure Project (P121455, FY12)
Edo State Fiscal Improvement and Service Delivery Operation (P151480, FY15)
Lagos State DPO 3 (P151947, FY15)
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Off track: Currently, the Federal GoN and two other States (Edo, supported by SEEFOR and DPF; Lagos, supported by DPF) have made progress towards the target. Latest ISR for SEEFOR as well as results under Edo and Lagos DPFs indicate that both States have achieved key milestones. The Federal Government has also achieved key milestones under the closed Economic Reform and Governance Project and ongoing Bank dialogue with the authorities. Other six states (supported by SEEFOR and Public Sector Governance Reform and Development Project) have integrated financial management information systems that are functioning sub-optimally and that are capable of producing consolidated monthly and quarterly financial statements within 14 days of end of each month/quarter. But these statements are not routinely generated and published. This area needs to be enhanced by Bank’s intervention.
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16.2: # of states that have adopted procurement law increased from 24 in 2013 to 30 in 2017.
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Number
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24 in 2013
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27 in 2017
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Off track: Progress was slow due to the change of government in several states. Compared to the baseline in 2013, one more state has adopted procurement law; 3 states are awaiting assent and 4 states are under consideration by the state assembly in February 2016.
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16.3: % of public procurement contracts above threshold awarded through open competition in 12 states increased from 30 % in 2013 to 75% in 2017.
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Percentage
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30% in 2013
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75% in 2017
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Achieved: The percentage has reached at 85 percent in all 12 states in February 2016. Among which, Edo State reached at 100 percent in December 2013. Although the progress of all the states has surpassed the target, efforts are being made for enhancement and improvement.
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Outcome 17. Improved quality and accessibility of statistics
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17.1: Increased availability of official statistics to all users at federal and state level as measured by 40 percent increase in the number of states with State Statistical Yearbook which is less than 3 years old.
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Number
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14 states in 2013
|
20 states by 2017
|
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Off track: This indicator was supported by the SRF Grant that was closed in February 2014. The planned new statistics project did not materialize.
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17.2: 40 percent increase in the number of statistical thematic areas where internationally agreed concepts and standards are applied at federal and state level.
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Number
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7 areas in 2013
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10 areas by 2017
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Off track: The planned new statistics project did not materialize.
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