Nigeria is facing intensified security challenges. While different in geography, characteristics and manifestations, sub-regional chronic conflict, insecurity and episodic violence in Nigeria should not be seen as unrelated phenomena. The Boko Haram insurgency, the Movement of Emancipation of the Niger Delta, urban crime and violence and conflicts between pastoralists and agriculturalists – as unique as they are, share commonalities in terms of their drivers, dynamics and evolution:
North - The Boko Haram insurgency: Since 2009, nearly 15 million people have been affected by the violence of Boko Haram and the resulting military operations in the NE of Nigeria. The conflict is further exacerbating significant pre-existing development challenges such as lagging development, gender disparities and poor service delivery.
Middle belt - Intercommunal, interreligious and pastoralist-agriculturalist conflicts: Religious, ethnic and resource disputes in the middle belt have led to an estimated 60,000 casualties during the last 15 years. The issue of land is seen as being at the origin of some of the worst violence in the region in recent years, resulting from both competition for scarce grazing land between Fulani pastoralists and farmers from indigenous communities, as well as competition over political power.
The Niger Delta - Militancy and restiveness: Between 2006 and 2009, the Niger Delta region descended rapidly into a zone of intense conflict and disorder. In recent months, new attacks on the oil and gas infrastructure have taken place, signaling that a new expression of this long-term dynamic is taking place.
Urban areas - Urban fragility, crime and violence: Chaotic and disorganized urban expansion have resulted in the formation of cities characterized by large slum areas, excessive and underserved demands on infrastructure and services, vulnerable forms of livelihood, and fierce competition over limited employment opportunities. Large youthful populations compounds the stressors and tensions within the urban system.
The above challenges pose threat to lives and properties, hinder business activities and discourages local and foreign investors, hampering Nigeria’s socio-economic development. The authorities recognize that there cannot be sustainable development without peace and security, and that without development and poverty eradication there will be no sustainable peace. The task at hand is to strengthen the security and development nexus in Nigeria by addressing the drivers of conflict.
There are many factors driving fragility and conflict in Nigeria. These may be grouped into three types. While not always visible, structural factors set the foundation for conflict, which is not always violent. More perceptible factors, which can be thought of as intermediate, or proximate drivers can contribute to violent conflict. These tend to exacerbate the structural factors over the medium to long-term and explain why violence emerges. Triggers, which are short-term incidents, are usually sudden or unforeseen events that provoke initial or further outbreaks of violence or an escalation of conflict. In Nigeria, these three types of factors, once elucidated, can together help to explain the emergence of violent conflict. These are presented in the table below, which groups the three types of factors, along with some of the emerging conflict dynamics in six ‘fields’: social, governance, security, economic, cultural and environmental.
Structural / Root Factors
Intermediate/ Proxy Factors
Triggers
Crisis Dynamics
Social
Poor social and economic outcomes (poverty, health, nutrition, employment); high inequality; perceived social injustice; lack of social service provision.
Declining trust and eroded social cohesion; political manipulation of society and patronage.
Social polarization; openness to radicalization; revenge.
Changing gender and intergenerational relations; sexual and gender-based violence; displacement; inter-communal violence.
Political/
Governance
Elite political settlement excluding majority; historic marginalization of sub- regions;
poor performance of government institutions;
Low accountability and legitimacy of state.
Accusations of corruption and impunity; non-state actors fill governance and service void (e.g. community and religious associations); traditional institutions eroded.
Parties take to the street in the absence of effective or trusted channels for re-dress, justice, or political change.
Fractured social contract; lack of transparency and poor accountability creates a spiral of violence.
Security
Low levels of human security as a result of poorly performing state security services; porous borders in an insecure wider region.
Supply of unemployed and disaffected youth, proliferation of arms create conditions for recruitment and growth of armed groups and criminal opportunism.
Unlawful acts by state and non-state actors; Human rights and humanitarian law violations drive sense of injustice and persecution.
Excessive use of force by elements of the security establishment legitimizing rebellion, vigilante groups fill security vacuum with mixed consequences.
Economic
Lack of economic infrastructure, access to markets, and effective policies to support agriculture and industry; high levels and poverty and food insecurity.
Lack of jobs and opportunity; large population of unemployed and poorly skilled youth.
Collapse of sub-regional industrial base; recruitment of armed fighters from labor force incentivizes violence.
Military expenditures thwart development spending; Low human development outcomes heighten risk of ongoing or renewed conflict.
Cultural/
Ideological
Religion as source of political legitimacy; History of (sometimes violent) religious radicalism challenging the state.
