Jackson Vanik will pass – bipartisan support of congress and interest groups gives momentum
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at: election rhetoricElection rhetoric won’t hurt relationsKudenko 3/23 (Alexey Kudenko, RIA Novosti, “U.S. Baffled by Russian America-Bashing – McFaul,” 3/23/12) http://en.ria.ru/russia/20120323/172347579.html The rise of anti-Americanism during the Russian presidential campaign came as an unpleasant surprise to the United States but would likely do no damage to long-term bilateral relations, said U.S. Ambassador to Moscow, Michael McFaul. The White House will counter the hostile rhetoric through “real diplomacy,” McFaul said in an interview to Voice of America radio published late Thursday. He did not elaborate. “We don’t want a throwback to some kind of ‘Cold War’ and acrimonious rhetoric. We don’t think it serves American interests,” McFaul was cited as saying in the interview, which is only available in Russian translation. He also said that the media backlash has allowed opponents of U.S. President Barack Obama to question the “reset” in Russian-American relations, which McFaul helped mastermind in 2009, when he was advisor to Obama. However, Russian officials said in informal talks that they prefer to continue dialogue with the United States, the ambassador said. McFaul met with leaders of opposition protests in Moscow in January, shortly after arriving to Russia. The meeting prompted pro-government media to accuse the opposition of being funded by the U.S. State Department. McFaul denied the allegations in his interview, saying that the United States is only sponsoring Russian non-political nongovernment organizations, involved in building the civil society, including ecological groups and independent vote monitors. Obama plans no major changes to his Russian policy and expects president-elect Vladimir Putin to support the decision, McFaul said. He added that the two presidents intend to meet on American soil in May to discuss bilateral relations. The United States will continue with their efforts to convince Moscow that U.S. missile defense shield, which is to be deployed in Eastern Europe, poses no threat to Russia, McFaul said. America will also try to reconcile its position on Syria and Iran with Russia, McFaul said. He admitted considerable differences on both issues but cited successful past compromises, as well as Russia’s support of the U.S. mission in Afghanistan, as reasons for optimism. McFaul also reiterated his call to cancel the Jackson-Vanik amendment, an American piece of legislation from 1974 that introduced economic sanctions against the Soviet Union. at: magnitsky listWon’t kill relationsRia Novosti, 10/21/2011, “'Magnitsky list' won’t undermine Russia-US relations, Lavrov says,” http://en.ria.ru/russia/20111021/167961475.html The so-called Magnitsky list that bars entry to the U.S. for Russian officials allegedly involved in the death of lawyer Sergei Magnitsky, will not undermine relations between the two countries, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Friday. The relations established by the Obama and Medvedev administrations are strong enough to withstand "various attempts to ruin them," Lavrov told three Russian radio stations. “I am sure, that the 'Magnitsky list'… won’t undermine the foundations of Russia-US relations," he said. at: missile defenseTalks resuming over missile defense – its being sorted out Belyaninov et al 3/12 (Kirill Belyaninov, deputy editor in chief at FLB Investigative Agency, senior investigative reporter at Sovershenno sekretno, special correspondent at Komsomolskaya Pravda Alexander Gabuyev, Yelena Chernenko, “AMERICAN SECRET,” Defense and Security, No. 318, No 3/12/12) The U.S. Administration is prepared to offer Russia classified data on components of the future European ballistic missile defense system. First and foremost, the matter concerns SM-3 specs. The White House hopes that it will allay Russia's fears and stifle its protests against the missile shield, the apple of discord in the American-Russian relations. What information is available to this newspaper indicates that the dialogue over ballistic missile defense systems might be reactivated before Vladimir Putin's inauguration. That the White House resumed attempts to find a way out of the cul-de-sac the talks with Russia had entered became clear from the words of Brad Roberts of the Pentagon. Addressing the U.S. Congress last week, Roberts said that Washington was considering transfer of some technical data on the future ballistic missile defense system to Russia. "Transfer of some classified data will only benefit our cooperation [with Russia]," said Roberts. April Cunningham of the Pentagon confirmed her colleague's words. "We are trying to decide at this point transfer of what information on the future system will promote our interests," she said. Sources within the U.S. Congress meanwhile are convinced that the matter concerns technical parameters of SM-3, the upgraded killer missile designed by Raytheon Co., that is supposed to become the pivotal element of the future European ballistic missile defense system. The impression is that the White House is once again promoting the idea that caused considerable friction with the U.S. Congress in late 2011 and was dropped because of the scandal that erupted then. The idea was first voiced in November 2011 when Michael Turner of the U.S. Congress announced that Ellen Tauscher since replaced by Rose Gottemoeller had offered to give this information to the Russians on her visit to Moscow a month before. VBO or velocity burnout will enable specialists to decide whether or not killer missiles pose a threat to Russian ICBMs. That Russia would dearly like to know SM-3's VBO need not be said. Senior Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told this newspaper Moscow needs to know specs of SM-3's advanced modifications (Block 2A and Block 2B to be fielded by 2020). The scandal Turner's words caused delayed endorsement by the legislature of the new U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul. In late November, some senators approached McFaul with the demand to speak up on clandestine talks with the Russians. McFaul replied that the White House was but considering this idea. He said that the matter never concerned telemetric data and that the NDPC had never even discused the issue yet. U.S. legislators calmed down some and finally endorsed McFaul as the new ambassador in Moscow. The latest statements from the Pentagon make it clear that Washington is not through with the idea. The United States has even more reasons now to sweet-talk Russia into being cooperative than it did in late 2011. Absence of progress in the missile shield talks jeopardizes the Russian-NATO Council summit scheduled for May. Cunningham made it plain that release of telemetric data remained out of the question. A spokesman for the U.S. Department of State meanwhile said that representatives of the Russian military were welcome to visit the Petersen US AF Base where the next SM-3 tests were to take place. Russia is waiting for the United States to do something about the cul-de-sac the American obstinacy drove the talks into. "We kept making them constructive offers all through 2011. We suggested several variants of the coupling of the two systems, for example," said a senior Russian diplomat. "It is the Americans' turn now." There is a chance for Moscow and Washington to discuss the matter in detail. Gottemoeller, Assistant Secretary of State for Verification and Compliance, is expected in the Russian capital soon. According to the information this newspaper has compiled, the visit may take place this month. Obama will give in on missile defenseBendikova 3/26 (Michaela Bendikova, “U.S. President Willing to Give in to Russia’s Missile Defense Demands,” 3/26/12) http://blog.heritage.org/2012/03/26/u-s-president-willing-to-give-in-to-russias-missile-defense-demands/ The United States does not need to protect itself from a threat of ballistic missiles. At least that is what President Obama suggests in his recent exchange with Dmitry Medvedev, president of the Russian Federation, during the 2012 Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul. “On all these issues, but particularly missile defense, this can be solved but it’s important for him [incoming president Vladimir Putin] to give me space,” stated President Obama. “This is my last election. After my election I have more flexibility,” he continued. These comments should come as no surprise. The Administration made clear that it is willing to sacrifice U.S. missile defense when it conceded to Russian demands to limit U.S. missile defenses in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) that entered into force in February 2011. A group of Senators led by Jon Kyl (R–AZ), however, objected to limitations set forth by the treaty. These Senators argued that Moscow will use this language to limit the U.S. missile defense program. Their fears materialized as Russia repeatedly threatened nuclear deployments close to NATO allies’ borders. Moscow also threatened to withdraw from New START if the United States does not “cooperate” with Russia on missile defense. Other issues outweighVLADIMIR ISACHENKOV, AP, 10/25/2011, “NATO still hopes to link Russia to missile shield,” http://www.newsday.com/news/nato-still-hopes-to-link-russia-to-missile-shield-1.3270652 Despite the missile defense dispute, Appathurai argued that current relations between NATO and Russia are "broader and deeper than they have ever been," pointing to Russia providing a vital overland supply link for NATO forces in Afghanistan. "We have a clear shared interest in ensuring that Afghanistan finds its feet, maintains stability and doesn't export drugs, terrorism or extremism," he said. The two sides have cooperated successfully on counter-terrorism, anti-drug and counter-piracy missions, and "have potential for more in all of these areas," Appathurai said. "We shouldn't let missile defense become the single prism through which we see our relationship," he added. "It's not the only part and shouldn't define the rest of it." Won’t hurt relations – US pursuing compromiseVLADIMIR ISACHENKOV, AP, 10/25/2011, “NATO still hopes to link Russia to missile shield,” http://www.newsday.com/news/nato-still-hopes-to-link-russia-to-missile-shield-1.3270652 NATO still hopes to engage Russia in its prospective missile defense system, but won't yield to Moscow's push for the shield to be run jointly, an alliance envoy said Tuesday. James Appathurai, deputy assistant NATO Secretary General, said the alliance would like to reach a missile defense deal with Moscow by NATO's summit in Chicago next May, but added that he wouldn't "gamble on expectations." "We are always, of course, optimistic at NATO," Appathurai said at a news conference. "But we are also determined to keep the hand outstretched. I can't predict, of course, when we would arrive at agreement." Russia says the U.S.-led missile defense plan could threaten its nuclear forces, undermining their deterrence potential. It has agreed to consider NATO's proposal last fall to cooperate on the missile shield, but the talks have been deadlocked over how the system should be operated. Russia has insisted that the system should be run jointly, which NATO has rejected. Appathurai insisted that the alliance's 28 members share a treaty obligation to provide security for each other and can't outsource that. "We can't do that with any other partner no matter how trusted," he said, adding that NATO is offering Russia an "unprecedented level of transparency and cooperation." Appathurai argued that the alliance has proposed to engage Russia by sharing data and coordinating a response. He also mentioned a U.S. proposal for Moscow to have a close look at the shield's technical capabilities and see that it won't threaten its security. Russia pursuing a compromise Ria Novosti, 10/27/2011, “Russia expects US compromise on missile defense,” http://twocircles.net/2011oct27/russia_expects_us_compromise_missile_defense.html Russia is hoping that the US will make reciprocal efforts to break a deadlock over the European missile shield, Russia’s envoy to NATO Dmitry Rogozin said. "We expect that the United States and its NATO allies will, after all, make steps to meet Russia halfway, because Russia has demonstrated its absolute creativity in search of a compromise," Rogozin said after a meeting with NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen Wednesday. 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