Jackson Vanik will pass – bipartisan support of congress and interest groups gives momentum
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- A2: Relation Resilient
- And, we’ll isolate multiple other warrants
xt rel high – electionsRelations fine – downturns are election season blipsNew Europe 1/27 (New Europe, New Europe Online, “Putin slams Washington over 'external interference’” 1/27/12) http://www.neurope.eu/article/putin-slams-washington-russia-won-t-tolerate-external-interference “Until they get through that process I expect - just like in the United States - you’ll see political rhetoric and probably some statements that people will wish were not made, if you are on the other side. But frankly I think in the end of ends we’ll see the process through and then we’ll see what the new government and the new Putin administration later in this year decides it’s going to do with the United States,” Collins said. Meanwhile, the new US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul rejected as “nonsense” accusations by a top lawmaker in Putin’s United Russia party, Andrei Isayev that he’s trying to encourage a revolution. In the early days of the administration of US President Barack Obama, McFaul made his mark as the architect of the so-called “reset” of relations with Russia. Now Obama sent him to Russia to continue this policy of seeking to improve ties. But when McFaul met with opposition activists earlier in January, within days of taking up his appointment, he annoyed the Kremlin. Those contacts with the Russian opposition are part of official US policy to spread democratic values around the world, Kommersant newspaper quoted McFaul in an interview. “The point of the reset isn’t to prepare a revolution,” McFaul said. “That’s not what we are doing.” McFaul also rejected Isayev’s contention that he’s an expert in Orange Revolutions, referring to popular upheavals in the former Soviet nations of Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. “I’m an academic, a political scientist and a sociologist, not a professional revolutionary,” McFaul said. One of his predecessors, Collins, dismissed complaints inside the Kremlin that the US is trying to stir up trouble, supporting protests that have eroded Putin's popularity. “I personally think there is absolutely no justification for all this idea that America is interfering in their political process,” Collins told New Europe. “The response to Mike McFaul’s first days and other things like these statements are frankly political rhetoric. Any ambassador and any American embassy over decades has met with all dimensions of Russian society and they have done it in political times and non-political times. The idea that somehow it’s not an ambassador’s job to be in touch and engaged with all elements of the political spectrum in the Russian Federation is simply saying he shouldn’t do his job,” Collins said. “They certainly cannot be surprised that the ambassador to the Russian Federation has contacts with people other than government officials. They’ve been doing it for decades and they will continue to do it so I find all that around Mike McFaul’s arrival to be a bit surprising.” Russian President Dmitry Medvedev told reporters that McFaul should understand that he is working in Russia, not in the US. “I hope that he [McFaul] will do a good job but of course he needs to realise that he is working in the Russian Federation, not in the United States of America, and that our country has its specifics, just as any ambassador has his mandate,” he said. Russia-US relations, let alone Medvedev-Obama relations, have not been affected, the Russian president said. “There’s not been a worsening in our interstate relations or in our personal relations [with Obama],” he said. Collins said that despite the headline-grabbing political rhetoric the US and Russia want to see the relationship and the “reset” continue. He noted that he doesn’t expect US-Russian relations to backtrack once Putin replaces Medvedev, who spearheaded efforts to improve relations with the US. “I have presumed all along that you did not have a policy over the last three and a half years from Mr Medvedev without Mr Putin being a part of it,” Collins said, adding that the efforts to improve US-Russian relations over the last three years represent the work of both the Russian and the American governments. xt rhetoric distinctionCurrent tensions are just rhetoric – cooperation is still happeningBridge 3/14 (Robert Bridge, “US missile defense: Loaded system, empty promises,” 3/14/12) http://rt.com/politics/us-missile-defense-russia-lavrov-555/ Despite the heated rhetoric and lack of trust between Moscow and Washington, the two sides show a willingness to cooperate on other fronts. Lavrov mentioned a project to create a transit station to move "non-lethal" cargo to Afghanistan, where Coalition forces are having mixed results battling the Taliban and al-Qaeda. The transportation of non-military cargo transit to Afghanistan "is regarded by us as a means of helping those who are eradicating the terrorist and drug threat in Afghanistan," Lavrov said. Draft plans for cargo shipments passing through the city Ulyanovsk, which is situated 893 kilometers (555 miles) east of Moscow, have not yet been submitted to the government for consideration. A2: Relation ResilientRepeal key to relations reset strategy-failure would infuriate the RussiansKorea Times 10/16 (Hurting US relations with Russia, http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/opinon/2011/10/137_96741.html) Two influential Democratic members of Congress, Scoop Jackson of Washington and Charles Vanik, responded with an amendment to a major trade law that denied the Soviet Union and its satellites the trade relations normally extended to other countries, and restricted loans, trade credits and guarantees. The amendment put a great crimp in Soviet trade with both the U.S. and the West. Seismic changes were taking place in the Soviet Union, and the emigration restrictions were gradually lifted and became moot with the fall of the Iron Curtain. Any Jews who wanted to leave, could, and not surprisingly given Russia's long history of anti-Semitism, most did.The Jackson-Vanik amendment, however, continued as a matter of U.S. law and as a great irritant to the Russian government. Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., the senior Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and no Cold War softie, recommended its repeal as long ago as 2003.The amendment has survived, however, with the support of some senior Republicans who want to keep it in reserve for future leverage against Russia on other issues. This, of course, infuriates the Russians. It bars them from permanent normal trade relations with the United States, what used to be called most favored nation status.Mike McFaul, the senior director for Russia on the White House National Security Council, this week urged Congress to repeal Jackson-Vanik as both an antiquated law and an impediment to President Barack Obama's efforts to "reset" relations with Russia. In the context of US security concessions, Putin has explicitly dismissed them as insufficient and asked instead for trade-related benefits. Trade concessions are key to investment in Russia, which they desperately need to recover from the economic crisis.And, we’ll isolate multiple other warrants:A. Equal partnership: Putin thinks US trade restrictions are a symbol of US colonialism that prevent partnershipSkrin 2009 (Market & Corporate News , 1-30, “West should perceive Russia as equal partner: Putin,” Lexis) Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has urged Western companies to leave behind the colonial thinking in their relations with Moscow. It is necessary to work in a civilized and honest manner and get rid of colonial ideology, Putin told a meeting of the International Business Council at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Thursday. Russia wants to be perceived in the West as an equal partner without any exemptions or exclusions, the Russian Premier underlines. At present, we are going through tough times amid the unfolding financial and economical meltdown, Putin complains. Even so, he adds, Russia has no intention of restricting capital flows despite a large rise in capital outflow that saw a whopping 130 billion dollars leave the country last year. We have deliberately made this move, Putin explains, bearing in mind that these actions by the Russian authorities should give a clear signal that we will be seeking to stick to all our obligations. For that to happen, we will try to make our economy and our country open and we have already achieved a lot in this direction lately, Putin maintains.Saying that Russia was not allowed to buy certain technologies / and even finished products in the West Putin said that apart from the limitations inherited from the past, new ones were being imposed - in Europe to a lesser extent, while in the United States many of them remained. Above all the Jackson-Vanik Amendment to the US- Soviet Trade Bill, which the Russian Premier said was an "anachronism that has nothing to do with common sense". "The problem of the Jews' departure from the Soviet Union no longer exists, neither does the USSR against which the discriminatory amendment was enacted," Putin stressed. He said the main limitations remain in people’s minds, and we should get rid of them. "We are not disabled people, we do not need help, we want to be an equal and reliable partner," Putin stressed. "The world has changed in the sense that it is necessary to be self-critical and listen more to what is happening on our planet as a whole. This is exactly what we need if we want to have long-term partnership between us," he said, the ruvr.ru website said. B. Psychology: Economic cooperation is key to positive framing of the overall relationship, integrating Russian markets, and the Russian economyThe Commission on U.S. Policy toward Russia 2009 (joint project of The Nixon Center and the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, a research center within Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, “The Right Direction for U.S. Policy toward Russia,” March, http://www.nixoncenter.org/RussiaReport09.pdf) Though Russia’s economy remains one-tenth the size of America’s ,managing the global economic crisis is a top issue and a clear common interest for Washington and Moscow. Notwithstanding its serious challenges, the crisis is also an important opportunity for the United States in dealing with Russia because it has changed the psychology of the relationship and can contribute to framing U.S.-Russian relations in positive and cooperative terms. Despite holding the world’s third-largest currency reserves, Russian officials now realize that their country’s economic future depends significantly on both the global economy and the United States and they look to Washington for solutions. The crisis has also exposed many of Russia’s continuing economic and financial weaknesses, including its failures to diversify or encourage foreign investment. The United States finally has a chance to integrate Russia fully into the international economy and to take an important step toward addressing broader concerns of other major developing economies like China, India, and Brazil that their voices are not sufficiently respected in global economic matters. The G-8 and the G-20 could be useful vehicles for this. Russian accession to the World Trade Organization is a key step in this process and would bind Moscow to WTO rules and protect American companies. More narrowly, the United States and Russia have not thus far developed extensive bilateral trade and investment. Some of this is a result of geography, but much is due to insufficient effort, an inability to overcome the Jackson-Vanik Amendment either substantively or symbolically, and under appreciation of the important economic interests at stake. Russia will become only more important to the global economy over time. C. Cold War thinking: Even after security concessions, Putin cited trade restrictions as the most important relics of the Cold WarPrime-Tass 2009 (Prime-Tass English-language Business Newswire, 9-18, Putin urges West to take further steps to improve ties with Russia,” Lexis) Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on Friday urged the West to take further steps to improve relations with Russia. He was speaking at the Kuban Economic Forum in the city of Sochi. Putin welcomed the U.S. President Barack Obama's decision to abandon a plan to deploy land-based missiles as part of a missile defense system in Poland and called on Western countries to make further conciliatory steps. The plan has been opposed by Russia. Putin urged the West to abolish restrictions on technology transfers to Russia and to facilitate the country's accession into the World Trade Organization (WTO). He also proposed abolishing Western restrictions on Russian exports, restrictions of which were inherited from the Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls (CoCom), which was established in 1947 to introduce a partial embargo on Soviet bloc exports. Putin also said he was unhappy with some Western governments' opposition to Russian investments and added that he hoped such "remnants" of the Cold War would soon be overcome. "Russian companies acquiring foreign assets often face so-called national egoism," he said. "I'm sure that these are 'birthmarks' of the Cold War that we still can't get rid of." Putin went on to say foreign energy companies investing in Russia and Russian energy companies investing abroad should be subject to the same regulatory treatment D. This cooperation spills over: Ending trade restrictions facilitates Russian WTO accession and spurs economic cooperation that affects areas like nonprolif and IranAslund and Kuchins 2009 (Anders, leading specialist on Russia and professor at Georgetown University, and Andrew, senior fellow and director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, professor at Johns Hopkins, “Pressing the “Reset Button” on US-Russia Relations,” Chapter 9, March, CSIS, http://www.piie.com/publications/pb/pb09-6.pdf) US government engagement with Russia on economic integration presents an opportunity to broaden and deepen their bilateral relationship.30 Economic cooperation will build goodwill and mutual confidence, which can facilitate discussion of other areas of interest such as cooperation on nonproliferation and dealing with Iran’s nuclear program. Yet one of the most underdeveloped areas of the US-Russia relationship is commerce. The two countries’ very limited mutual trade and investment—the United States accounts for only 4 percent of Russian trade and foreign direct investment— indicate a very significant potential to expand bilateral economic relations to the benefit of both Americans and Russians. One reason direct US investment in the Russian economy is so small is that the United States does not have a ratified bilateral investment treaty (BIT) with Russia, unlike 38 other nations that represent most of the major global economies and most members of the European Union. As a consequence, Americans usually invest in Russia through a European subsidiary that enjoys better legal protection. Although Russia did not ratify the 1992 BIT, it has clearly indicated that it welcomes such an agreement— which became part of the bilateral April 2008 Sochi Declaration— but the Bush administration sought to negotiate a new, better BIT only in its final months. A BIT would also encourage Russian investment in the United States. Foreign investment not only provides jobs for Americans but also, as Yale professor of economics Aleh Tsyvinski writes, “foster[s] economic interdependence.” He continues: “By investing in U.S. and European assets, Russia’s government and business elites are buying a stake in the global economy. This should bring better mutual understanding and a more rational and accountable foreign policy.”31 The United States must work with Russia to ensure that openness to foreign investment is reciprocal and that legal protections for investors are guaranteed. A crucial issue in Russia’s standing in world commerce is its WTO accession. Russia suspended its application to join the WTO in anticipation of Western sanctions against its war in Georgia, which never materialized. Hopefully, it will reinstate its application soon. It is the largest economy that remains outside the organization. The United States has consistently favored Russia’s membership in the WTO as well as in other international economic institutions, as such integration would not only boost commerce but also promote rules-based international norms of economic behavior in Russia and thus influence Russian policy. The United States should continue to support Russia’s WTO accession and work with Russia and WTO members to overcome their objections. Russia is already an active and responsible board member of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. In 2007 Russia showed positive engagement by proposing its own, highly respected candidate for managing director of the IMF. Economic integration will provide additional opportunities for the Russian leadership to further develop its global engagement. In addition, Russia has been a full member of the G-8 since 1997 (although the finance ministers group is still only G-7). The Obama administration should follow the lead of the Bush administration and devote more attention and resources to developing the G-20 (created by the Clinton administration in 1998) rather than the G-8, which seems increasingly unrepresentative and obsolete. Russia shares this view. In his October 2008 speech in Evian, France, President Medvedev expressed a strong interest in reforming the anachronistic system of international financial governance.32 Although Russian proposals have not been very concrete, such efforts should be welcomed in principle. Russia’s interest in engaging in reform of the international financial architecture is a positive development, even if its views may sometimes conflict with those of the United States. Russian accession to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is also important. Like the WTO, the OECD is a highly legalistic organization that requires new members to adopt many rules before they are granted entry. Membership carries with it obligations such as observance of international standards relating to rule of law, transparency, and property rights, all of which must be adopted in coordination with other members, in particular close European allies. Another roadblock is the Jackson-Vanik Amendment to the Trade Act of 1974. It requires the executive branch to certify to Congress annually that there are no restrictions on the emigration of Jews from Russia; if it were invoked, prohibitive Smoot-Hawley tariffs would apply to all Russian imports to the United States. This Cold War holdover no longer serves any useful purpose and is routinely voided. Presidents Clinton and Bush both promised to graduate Russia from the amendment. The United States should fulfill its promise, which would facilitate Russia’s entry into the WTO. 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