Japan Aff Michigan 2010 / ccgjp lab – 7wks

Exts: US Economy Add-on

CHINA ON THE BRINK OF WITHDRAWING SIGNIFICANT INVESTMENTS IN THE DOLLAR, STRICT FISCAL DISCIPLINE ONLY WAY TO HOLD IT OFF

Murdock 2009

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In one of today’s richest ironies, America’s fiscal health — such as it is — hinges on the generosity of the Chinese Communist party. Annoying Beijing’s mandarins could prompt them to skip our Treasury auctions. If China stops lending the Treasury money to underwrite Uncle Sam’s spendaholism, the Federal Reserve will need to print even more dollars to nudge the day of reckoning back over the horizon. The Chinese have urged Washington to stop spending and printing so much money, lest inflation turn China’s $800.5 billion in Treasuries into a giant misfortune cookie. Chinese officials have grown increasingly vocal — and decreasingly diplomatic — in asking the U.S. government to start practicing fiscal discipline. “If they [the Fed] keep printing money to buy bonds, it will lead to inflation, and after a year or two the dollar will fall hard,” predicts Chen Siwei, former vice chairman of the Standing Committee of the Chinese National People’s Congress and now its green-energy guru. “Most of our foreign reserves are in U.S. bonds, and this is very difficult to change, so we will diversify incremental reserves into euros, yen, and other currencies.” Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of London’s Daily Telegraph reported September 6 on Siwei’s remarks at the European House-Ambrosetti’s economic forum in Cernobbio, on Italy’s breathtaking Lake Como. “Gold is definitely an alternative, but when we buy, the price goes up,” Siwei continued. “We have to do it carefully so as not to stimulate the markets.” In other words, like a panda bear in a jewelry shop, China is tiptoeing away from the dollar and into gold, and doing so quietly enough not to rattle commodity and currency traders. This month, China also bought $50 billion in Special Drawing Rights, the International Monetary Fund’s brand-new Esperanto currency that blends euros, pounds, yen, and dollars. “The U.S. spends tomorrow’s money today,” Siwei’s bluntly added. “We Chinese spend today’s money tomorrow. That’s why we have this financial crisis.”

Exts: US Economy Add-on

China is the largest US debt holder and are concerned about reckless spending

Landler 10

On economics, Chinese officials now regularly lecture their American counterparts on the need to maintain the value of the American dollar. China, which has more than $2.4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, is the largest holder of American debt. On Wednesday, Xinhua, the official state news agency, . the official state news agency said Chinese economists are concerned that the American government, suffering from a record budget deficit, could print more dollars and issue more bonds, eroding the value of the dollar. The finger-wagging from the American side is almost certain to intensify too. With mid-term elections this fall, Mr. Obama is under pressure to alleviate the high unemployment rate in the United States. Mr. Obama said last week in his State of the Union speech that he hoped to double American exports within five years. In China, the export industry is a large employer in the coastal regions and draws hordes of migrant workers from interior provinces. Exports have slowed considerably since the global financial crisis began, and Chinese

leaders and economists have been saying that domestic consumption should become a larger part of the economy.

China is willing to dump dollar

Wall Street Journal February 5 th 2010

George Glider (Wall Street Journal, founder of the Discovery Institute, and author of "The Israel Test") “Why Antagonize

China?” – 02/05/2010 - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748704041504575045573110641044.html

It started last June in Beijing when U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner lectured Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, who recoiled like a man cornered by a crank at a cocktail party. Mr. Geithner was haranguing the Chinese on two highly questionable themes, neither arguably in the interests of either country: the need to suppress energy output in the name of global warming—a subject on which Mr. Geithner has no expertise— and the need for a Chinese dollar devaluation, on which one can scarcely imagine that he can persuade Chinese holders of a trillion dollars of reserves. This week in a meeting with Senate Democrats, President Obama continued to fret about the dollar being too strong against the yuan at a time when most of the world's investors fear that the Chinese will act on his words and crash the dollar.

Exts: Japan Rearm – Inevitable

Japan rearm inevitable and key to security

Hemm, 08- Yale Alumnus 08, Corporate Associate Covington & Burling LLP Law firm (2/6/2008, Robert M, “Recent Developments,” http://www.yale.edu/yjil/PDFs/vol_33/Recent_Developments_v33_1.pdf, CJC)

U.S. encouragement to rearm occurs at a time when Japan is increasingly concerned about its neighbors and feels it must bolster its military to ensure its security. In 1998, North Korea fired a Taepodong-1 missile over Japan, and has since test-fired seven more long-range missiles. Four years later, North Korea declared that it already possessed and was continuing to develop nuclear weapons, and claimed to have performed its first successful nuclear weapons test in 2006. In 2003, North Korea announced its withdrawal from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. China has also appeared threatening to Japan. In recent years, Chinese submarines and aircraft have repeatedly entered Japanese sea and air spaces, and Chinese civilians have staged sometimes violent anti-Japanese protests, perhaps conducted with official Chinese sanction. In response to perceived Chinese and North Korean military buildup and aggression, Japanese nationalism and public support for rearming and revising the constitution to eliminate pacifism have grown,22 as has support for Japanese politicians who advocate these policies.23
Japan rearm is inevitable
Hughes 07 – PhD, Assistant professor of political science and international affairs at the Elliot School of international affairs George Washington University (3/12/07, Llewelyn, “Why Japan Will Not Go Nuclear (Yet): International and Domestic Constraints on the Nuclearization of Japan,” MIT Press Journals, CJC)

Japan’s status as a nonnuclear weapons state remains of ongoing interest to policy analysts and scholars of international relations. For some, Japanese nuclearization is a question not of whether but of when; Japan has significant economic power and a sophisticated technological base, including a large civilian nuclear program with reprocessing facilities.1 For others, Japan’s reticence in security policy, of which its declaration not to manufacture, possess, or introduce nuclear weapons is a component, demonstrates the importance of normative variables in determining policy outcomes.2 This article reassesses the state of the evidence on the nuclearization of Japan. There are at least three reasons for doing so. First, changes in the regional and international security environment add credence to arguments that Japanese nuclearization will occur sooner rather than later. Most notably, the emergence of North Korea as a nuclear weapons state increases the threat to Japan, while the salience of the two central components of its strategy to defend against nuclear threats—multilateral regimes and the United States’ extension of its nuclear deterrent to Japan—have been undermined.3 Second, a decision by Japan to pursue an independent nuclear deterrent would undermine the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) regime, which is already viewed by some as “teetering on the brink of irrelevancy.”4 Such a decision would also worsen regional security relations, possibly leading China to bolster its nuclear weapons force and South Korea to reconsider its nuclear weapons policy. Third, recent deployments of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces suggest that normative constraints on Japanese security policy are loosening. Despite ongoing constitutional limits on the application of military force, Japan has expanded the scope of Self-Defense Forces operations to include the Indian Ocean and Iraq; it has also acquired military equipment suggestive of a desire to increase its power projection capabilities.5 Additionally, electoral reform has weakened Japanese political parties that have been strongly opposed to a more active role for Japan’s military. Further, centralization of authority in the prime minister and Cabinet Office has increased the institutional freedom of action of Japanese leaders, enabling them to overcome political opposition to changes in security policy to a degree not possible in the past.

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