Japan Withdrawal – 1AC [4/10]
Plan solves – Withdrawal of troops from Japan allows a refashioning of the US-Japan alliance where both sides are equal
Bandow, 2010 [Doug, Senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to President Reagan; “Japan Can Defend Itself,” May 12, Accessed online at http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11804. Article also appeared on The National Interest Online]
America's post-Cold War dominance is coming to an end. Michael Schuman argued in Time: "Anyone who thinks the balance of power in Asia is not changing — and with it, the strength of the U.S., even among its old allies — hasn't been there lately." Many analysts nevertheless want the United States to attempt to maintain its unnatural dominance. Rather than accommodate a more powerful China, they want America to contain a wealthier and more influential Beijing. Rather than expect its allies to defend themselves and promote regional stability, they want Washington to keep its friends dependent. To coin a phrase, it's time for a change. U.S. intransigence over Okinawa has badly roiled the bilateral relationship. But even a more flexible basing policy would not be enough. Washington is risking the lives and wasting the money of the American people to defend other populous and prosperous states. Washington should close Futenma — as a start to refashioning the alliance with Japan. Rather than a unilateral promise by the United States to defend Japan, the relationship should become one of equals working together on issues of mutual interest. Responsibility for protecting Japan should become that of Japan. Both Okinawans and Americans deserve justice. It's time for Washington to deliver.
Phased withdrawal of US forces from Japan uniquely results in improved relations with Japan Simpson, 2010 [Dan, a former U.S. ambassador, is a Post-Gazette associate editor; “Let’s Draw Down Our Forces in Japan; As a matter of fact, we have way too many troops in way too many places,” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, March 17; Accessed online at LN]
All in all, the new Japanese government has its eye on shifting power relationships in East Asia. China has already passed the United States as Japan's largest trading partner. The U.S. Congress' dogging of Toyota and its president last month probably didn't help, particularly since the U.S. government is an important owner of Toyota rivals General Motors and Chrysler. China, by contrast, sent its heir-designate, Vice President Xi Jinping, to Japan in December for a very visible visit. Japan's potential enemies in the region, China and North Korea, are, in fact, now moving into a different relationship with it, particularly if China is to be considered to have North Korea more or less under its control.
Rather than let the post-World War II marriage between the United States and Japan drift further onto the rocks, the Obama administration might think about being realistic and moving the relationship to a new stage, proposing a phased withdrawal of U.S. forces from Japan. There would be logic in such a proposal from an American point of view: It would save money, permit more concentration on U.S. domestic needs and move us toward stationing troops only where they are needed, as opposed to where they have been forever.
Japan Withdrawal – 1AC [5/10]
Advantage Two – Japanese Politics Hatoyama’s resignation over the botched handling of the US bases in Japan negatively affects the popularity of the Democratic Party of Japan as Kan takes over
AP 6/14 (6/14/10, "Japan's DPJ party to drop aims of 'equal' US ties", http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5h7bWeoOo8NaX6yMJPbE512Sa8HGA)
TOKYO — Japan's ruling party under new Prime Minister Naoto Kan plans to drop a reference to seeking "equal" relations with the United States in an election manifesto, a newspaper reported Tuesday. Kan took power last week, replacing Yukio Hatoyama who resigned after just nine months in office, largely over his botched handling of a row over a US airbase on Okinawa island that strained relations with Washington. The centre-left Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) of Hatoyama and Kan is planning to release an updated policy manifesto this week ahead of a parliamentary upper house vote expected on July 11. In the new version, the ruling party will pledge "to enhance Japan-US relations by strengthening ties in the fields of comprehensive security, economy and culture," the Yomiuri Shimbun reported without naming its sources. Kan has pledged to observe an agreement with the United States inked in May under Hatoyama that recommits Japan to a 2006 pact to keep the Futenma marine airbase on Okinawa, despite strong local opposition. The Yomiuri said the party manifesto is also expected to say that "on the issue of the Futenma base, we will make utmost efforts to reduce the burden on Okinawa, based on the Japan-US agreement." Okinawa governor Hirokazu Nakaima signalled Tuesday his continued opposition to the base, which has long angered locals because of aircraft noise, pollution, the risk of crashes and tension with American service personnel. He told reporters after meeting Kan: "I told him that we deplore the (Japan-US) joint statement, and that it will be hard to realise." Tokyo and Washington said in their joint statement on May 28 that the Futenma base would be moved, as first agreed in 2006, from a crowded city area to the coastal Henoko region of the southern island.
Additionally, popularity is necessary for the DPJ to win the majority in the Upper House and winning the majority allows Kan to pass legislation through both chambers
McCallum, 6/23 [6/23/10, Keneth McCallum, “FOCUS: Japan Kan's Summit Debut May Help DPJ At The Polls”, http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100623-702026.html]
Naoto Kan's debut on the international stage later this week will come at a perfect time for Japan's new prime minister: the Group of Eight and Group of 20 summit meetings will be held right before key elections, and his attendance could help the ruling party at the polls. At the meetings, to be held Friday-Sunday in Canada, Kan will explain to counterparts his economic plan, which aims to reduce Japan's mammoth debt while maintaining growth. The 63-year old prime minister, who took office June 8, is also expected to hold one-on-one meetings with world leaders, including U.S. President Barack Obama. Analysts say Japanese leaders often get a bump up in poll ratings after summits, as voters react favorably to seeing their leaders working with global counterparts. Elections for the Upper House of Parliament are scheduled for July 11. Attending the summit "will have a marginal positive impact," says Gerald Curtis, professor of Japanese politics at Columbia University. "The sense of comfort with Kan will grow if people think he can represent the country effectively abroad." Also helping Kan is the contrast to his predecessor, Yukio Hatoyama, who quit after eight months on the job. Unlike Hatoyama, Kan is seen by the public as a strong leader with a clean image, and U.S. officials appear to be more comfortable dealing with the Kan administration than its predecessor on security issues. Hatoyama stepped down as leader in early June following his botched effort to relocate a controversial U.S. military base in Okinawa. Kan told President Obama he would solve the base issue and that the alliance with the U.S. will remain a cornerstone of Japan's foreign policy. On economic policy, too, Kan is blazing a different path than his predecessor. Highlighting his more fiscally austere stance, Kan this week unveiled a plan to try to balance Japan's budget over the next decade by capping fiscal spending and considering raising the consumption tax rate. At the same time, he has released a growth strategy aimed at generating 3% nominal and 2% real average growth over the next 10 years by encouraging areas such as health care and the environment. "Aiming for both growth and fiscal rebuilding is possible, and that's the choice Japan is about to make," he said at a news conference Monday. "I want to express this clearly (at the summit), and it would be great if other countries can use what we do as an example." "He'll try to have some visibility there as one of the leaders who's pressing for coordinated, fiscally responsible policy on the part of all the G-20 countries," Columbia's Curtis said. Even if Kan's trip is a success, it still might not be enough to give his Democratic Party of Japan a victory at the polls: Voters initially welcomed Kan's intention to lift the 5% consumption tax rate on the perception that it would improve Japan's fiscal health. But after Kan said he'd consider doubling the rate, support ratings for his administration fell nine points to 50%, according to a poll in one local paper. The DPJ has 116 seats in the Upper House now, and 54 of those will be up for election. Kan said Tuesday he hopes the party will win more than 54 seats, close to the 60 that would give it an outright majority. That would make Kan's job easier, allowing the administration to pass legislation through both chambers, as the DPJ already has a large majority in the Lower House. Then again, the DPJ could end up losing seats. But competing parties are unlikely to win outright either, meaning the DPJ will need to form a coalition to get bills passed in the Upper House, some analysts say. "There won't be any winners. Everyone will be losers," said Minoru Morita, a Tokyo-based political analyst.
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