Japan Aff Michigan 2010 / ccgjp lab – 7wks


Japan Withdrawal – 1AC [6/10]



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Japan Withdrawal – 1AC [6/10]




And DPJ majority in the Upper House is key for passage of a non-watered down version of climate legislation to solve warming




Maeda and Fujioka, 6/15 [Risa and Chisa, 2010, “UPDATE 2-Japan aims to pass climate bill by yr-end UN talks,”http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFTOE65E05N20100615?pageNumber=3&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true]


[The] Climate bill shelved, but govt to resubmit to parliament Japan hopes for minimal impact on emission trading plans Japan to mull bilateral credits to offset domestic surplus (Adds details in 14th para and afterwards) TOKYO, June 15 (Reuters) - Japan will aim to pass a shelved climate bill setting tough emission reduction targets before an annual U.N. meeting in Mexico later this year, the environment minister said on Tuesday. The ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)-led government had hoped to enact the bill, which paves the way for a mandatory emissions trading system, by the end of the current session of parliament ending on Wednesday. But with time having run out for deliberations, the bill will be delayed. The government now plans to resubmit the bill to parliament after an upper house election expected on July 11. Environment Minister Sakihito Ozawa said he wanted to have the bill enacted by a U.N. meeting in Mexico from Nov. 29-Dec. 10, where negotiations will take place for a global agreement on fighting climate change. "We want to complete the bill by COP 16, so we can show our determination (on climate policy)," Ozawa told a news conference. Japan is the world's fifth-biggest greenhouse gas emitter and its pledge to cut emissions by 25 percent from 1990 levels by 2020 is government policy and part of the bill. Ozawa could not rule out the possibility of the bill being watered down if the DPJ failed to win an outright majority in the upper house election, but said the government aimed to enact the bill in its current form. [ID:nTOE62A091] The DPJ has a comfortable majority in the more powerful lower house, but a weak outcome for the party in the upper house election would force it to rely on help from smaller parties to pass bills smoothly, since the upper chamber can stall bills.

And unchecked warming leads to extinction




Tickell, 8-11-2008 (Oliver, Climate Researcher, The Gaurdian, “On a planet 4C hotter, all we can prepare for is extinction”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange)

We need to get prepared for four degrees of global warming, Bob Watson told the Guardian last week. At first sight this looks like wise counsel from the climate science adviser to Defra. But the idea that we could adapt to a 4C rise is absurd and dangerous. Global warming on this scale would be a catastrophe that would mean, in the immortal words that Chief Seattle probably never spoke, "the end of living and the beginning of survival" for humankind. Or perhaps the beginning of our extinction. The collapse of the polar ice caps would become inevitable, bringing long-term sea level rises of 70-80 metres. All the world's coastal plains would be lost, complete with ports, cities, transport and industrial infrastructure, and much of the world's most productive farmland. The world's geography would be transformed much as it was at the end of the last ice age, when sea levels rose by about 120 metres to create the Channel, the North Sea and Cardigan Bay out of dry land. Weather would become extreme and unpredictable, with more frequent and severe droughts, floods and hurricanes. The Earth's carrying capacity would be hugely reduced. Billions would undoubtedly die. Watson's call was supported by the government's former chief scientific adviser, Sir David King, who warned that "if we get to a four-degree rise it is quite possible that we would begin to see a runaway increase". This is a remarkable understatement. The climate system is already experiencing significant feedbacks, notably the summer melting of the Arctic sea ice. The more the ice melts, the more sunshine is absorbed by the sea, and the more the Arctic warms. And as the Arctic warms, the release of billions of tonnes of methane – a greenhouse gas 70 times stronger than carbon dioxide over 20 years – captured under melting permafrost is already under way. To see how far this process could go, look 55.5m years to the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, when a global temperature increase of 6C coincided with the release of about 5,000 gigatonnes of carbon into the atmosphere, both as CO2 and as methane from bogs and seabed sediments. Lush subtropical forests grew in polar regions, and sea levels rose to 100m higher than today. It appears that an initial warming pulse triggered other warming processes. Many scientists warn that this historical event may be analogous to the present: the warming caused by human emissions could propel us towards a similar hothouse Earth.



Japan Withdrawal – 1AC [7/10]




Opposition to US presence will not die down; withdrawal is necessary to please the masses



Kusumoto et al., 6/18, [Hana Kusumoto, Chiyomi Sumida, Teri Weaver, Stars and Stripes News, “Futenma fight could linger despite Japan's new prime minister”, 6/18/2010, http://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/okinawa/futenma-fight-could-linger-despite-japan-s-new-prime-minister-1.107689]

Japanese and U.S. leaders also are looking to see whether opposition dies down. Despite Kan’s cooler approach, that seems unlikely. Already this month, Okinawa’s capital city council adopted a resolution seeking a recall of the latest base agreement with the United States. “There is no expectation that the strong opposition will collapse,” Maeda said. Hatoyama’s attempt to renegotiate awakened many in Okinawa who for years had reluctantly accepted the U.S. bases in return for jobs and other economic development, according to Yoichi Iha, the mayor of Ginowan. Those opponents are not ready to give up their new passion. “They felt, for the first time, because there was a real possibility that bases might be removed outside of the prefecture, they [could] change their position,” the mayor said at a press conference in Tokyo on Wednesday. “You cannot change back the clock.” Others adamant about fighting the plan agree. “People will risk their lives” to prevent construction of any new base on Okinawa, said Kiyomi Tsujimoto, a Social Democratic Party Diet member at a press conference in Tokyo last week. Still, even staunch protesters against the new air station admit it will be hard to keep Okinawa’s issues in the national spotlight.



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