Japan Aff Michigan 2010 / ccgjp lab – 7wks



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rearm  war




Japan rearm causes US China War and world war
JOHNSON - president of the Japan Policy Research Institute – 2005 (Chalmers, March, JPRI Working Paper No. 105, http://www.jpri.org/publications/workingpapers/wp105.html)
I recall forty years ago, when I was a new professor working in the field of Chinese and Japanese international relations, that Edwin O. Reischauer once commented, "The great payoff from our victory of 1945 was a permanently disarmed Japan." Born in Japan and a Japanese historian at Harvard, Reischauer served as American ambassador to Tokyo in the Kennedy and Johnson administrations. Strange to say, since the end of the Cold War in 1991 and particularly under the administration of George W. Bush, the United States has been doing everything in its power to encourage and even accelerate Japanese rearmament. Such a development promotes hostility between China and Japan, the two superpowers of East Asia, sabotages possible peaceful solutions in those two problem areas, Taiwan and North Korea, left over from the Chinese and Korean civil wars, and lays the foundation for a possible future Sino-American conflict that the United States would almost surely lose. It is unclear whether the ideologues and war lovers of Washington understand what they are unleashing -- a possible confrontation between the world's fastest growing industrial economy, China, and the world's second most productive, albeit declining, economy, Japan, one which the United States would have both caused and in which it might well be consumed. Let me make clear that in East Asia we are not talking about a little regime-change war of the sort that Bush and Cheney advocate. [1] After all, the most salient characteristic of international relations during the last century was the inability of the rich, established powers - Great Britain and the United States -- to adjust peacefully to the emergence of new centers of power in Germany, Japan, and Russia. The result was two exceedingly bloody world wars, a forty-five-year-long Cold War between Russia and the "West," and innumerable wars of national liberation (such as the quarter-century long one in Vietnam) against the arrogance and racism of European, American, and Japanese imperialism and colonialism.

REARM BAD: SOUTH KOREA



JAPANESE REARM KILLS JAPAN-ROK ALLIANCE


Kim, professor @ Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, ROK Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Trade, 2004 The Future of U.S.-Korea-Japan Relations, ed. Tae-hyo Kim and Brad Glosserman, p. 6>

As long as Japan maintains its minimalist security policy-the so-called Yoshida Doctrine-the South Korean government should earnestly manage security and non-security issues based on a consensus regarding the ROK-Japan strategic partnership. The two countries should con-duct confidence-building by carrying out more exchanges among lead­ers and among the public. It is particularly important that government policies reflect the private sector's collaborative work on historical and social issues.

REARM BAD: INDIA/PAKISTAN



JAPANESE REARM WOULD BE RAPID AND CAUSE INDIA/PAKISTAN ARMS RACES



Business Week 2003 <1/20, Lexis>
If Japan could get beyond the hurdles, it likely wouldn't need long to develop a bomb. It has five tons of plutonium stored in the nuclear research center of Tokai-mura, north of Tokyo, and its scientists know how to convert it to weapons-grade material. Hideyuki Ban, director of the nonprofit Citizens' Nuclear Information Center, says Japan could build a nuclear bomb within months. And its civilian rocket and satellite launching system could easily be converted to military use. Japan also has superbly equipped land, sea, and air forces that could deliver medium-range nukes to North Korea.

But if Japan decides to build its own nukes, get ready for an Asian arms race. China would likely want to boost its arsenal, which would prompt India to develop more nuclear weapons, which would spur Pakistan to do the same -- and on and on into an ever more perilous future.




NOW IS KEY – ARMS RACING WILL RUIN INDIAN DÉTENTE AND CAUSE NUCLEAR WAR



Dallas Morning News 5/15/04
Yet Indians aren't disadvantaged at the ballot, and they showed it by tossing out Vajpayee's Bharatiya Janata Party. The new administration probably will be a coalition dominated by the Congress Party, led by Sonia Gandhi of the Gandhi political dynasty. The new administration should retain the best of the old _ detente with Pakistan and China, openness to trade and investment, and cooperation in the war against Islamist terrorism. The detente is important to avoid a dangerous and debilitating nuclear arms race, which easily could deteriorate into nuclear war. The free-market strategy is necessary to create jobs for India's deep ranks of unemployed. And the defense cooperation is essential to defeat the Islamists, who have both India and the United States in their sights.

THIS CAUSES EXTINCTION



Washington Times, 2001 (July 8, lexis)
The most dangerous place on the planet is Kashmir, a disputed territory convulsed and illegally occupied for more than 53 years and sandwiched between nuclear-capable India and Pakistan. It has ignited two wars between the estranged South Asian rivals in 1948 and 1965, and a third could trigger nuclear volleys and a nuclear winter threatening the entire globe. The United States would enjoy no sanctuary.

XT: EXTINCTION IMPACT



INDIA/PAKISTAN WAR CAUSES EXTINCTION



Caldicott, founder of Physicians for Social Responsibility, 2002, the New Nuclear Danger, p. xiii>
The use of Pakistani nuclear weapons could trigger a chain reaction. Nuclear-armed India, an ancient enermy, could respond in kind. China, India’s hated foe, could react if India used her nuclear weapons, triggering a nuclear holocaust on the subcontinent. If any of either Russia or America’s 2,250 strategic weapons on hair-trigger alert were launched either accidently or purposefully in response, nuclear winter would ensue, meaning the end of most life on earth.




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