No scenario for escalation inevitable incentives for conflict minimization
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- Russia/Norway agreements prove cooperation will expand and maintain peace.
- Their ev is alarmism -- cooperation outweighs in the Arctic.
- More ev -- cooperations increasing now.
Arctic WarNo war -- frameworks for cooperation and dialogue prevent it.IISS 12 – British think tank in the area of international affairs. It describes itself as "the world’s leading authority on political-military conflict". (International Institute for Strategic Studies, “The Arctic ‘race for cooperation’”, IISS, February 24, 2012, http://iissvoicesblog.wordpress.com/2012/02/24/the-arctic-race-for-cooperation/, Callahan) At the launch of the institute’s Forum for Arctic Climate Change and Security, Bildt highlighted the need for nations and companies to work together in the polar region. Rapid climate change – twice as fast in the Arctic than elsewhere – was opening up new maritime routes and opportunities for resources exploration. However, he insisted, it remained a harsh environment that made cooperation necessary. This relatively benign assessment surprised some of his London audience, one of whom said the issue of Arctic security normally in the UK focused warily on what the Russians were doing. Bildt admitted that Vladimir Putin’s election manifesto was ‘not entirely in tune with what I’m saying’. However, he stuck by his earlier assertion that the Arctic region had become much less militarised since the end of the Cold War. Of course, the United States continued to maintain the Thule Air Base in Greenland, some air-defence early warning radar stations were still found across the region and the Arctic remained an important site for satellite-control systems. But the maritime Arctic was governed by an international regime – the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) – and the Arctic Council had increased the emphasis on peaceful collaboration since it was founded in 1996. The Russians were enthusiastic council participants, Bildt said, and other countries were jockeying to become observers to the process. The increasing retreat of Arctic ice in summer has worried climate scientists, but it could also open hitherto impassable sea channels. The Northwest Passage, through the Canadian Arctic and the Bering Strait between Alaska and Siberia, became temporarily ice-free for the first time in 2007. The Northern Sea Route skirting Russia’s northern coast and down the Japanese coastline into the Pacific Ocean would cut one-third of the distance to travel between Europe and Asia. However, ‘it ain’t that easy’, Bildt warned. Huge computer-navigated container ships would not be able to traverse Arctic waters. International negotiations were needed to resolve safety, traffic and insurance issues. ‘The first legally binding agreement, on search and rescue, was signed last year.’ Bildt was relatively optimistic that resources competition would not lead to conflict, because of: the primacy of UNCLOS; the concentration of Arctic oil and gas in continental-shelf areas where there were no jurisdictional disputes; and the fact that oil and gas were often transported out of the region by ship, reducing the likelihood of pipeline disputes. ‘I find it difficult to see that there would be any development that would take us back to the situation of the past,’ Bildt said, pointing out that since the resolution of a Russian/Norwegian boundary dispute the biggest jurisdictional conflict was between Canada and the US. Russia/Norway agreements prove cooperation will expand and maintain peace.Karlsbakk 7/3 – Writer for the Barents Observer. (Jonas, “Leading the way for Arctic cooperation”, Barents Observer, July 3, 2012, http://barentsobserver.com/en/politics/leading-way-arctic-cooperation-03-07, Callahan) Arctic issues has for several years been high on the agenda both for Norway and Russia. As the international interest for the Arctic is growing, Norway’s and Russia’s Arctic strategy is well funded in the two countries High North policies. This was emphasized when Russia’s Ambassador at Large for Arctic Cooperation; Anton Vasiliev, met with County Governor of Finnmark, Runar Sjåstad in Moscow recently. Vasiliev highlighted in his meeting with the county delegation, the importance of establishing a well functioning management of the region. The Norwegian county of Finnmark has only 75 000 inhabitants. However, with is central location in the north bordering to Russia, it will be an important area for Norwegian business development in the years to come. Therefore it was important for the county delegation from Finnmark to learn about how Russia is planning for the future in this region. "The Arctic is a region which cannot not be managed by market demands. All development of the Arctic must happen through cooperation between the Arctic nations," says Vasiliev. He is therefore very pleased that there has been established an Arctic Council Secretariat in Tromsø to make sure that that the development is managed well. Solving disputes Vasiliev used the meeting with the County Govorner of Finnmark to highlight the importance of the delimitation line agreement in the Barents Sea. The agreement signed in 2010, ended a 40 year long dispute between Norway and Russia on where to draw the borderline. "The agreement is of course important for Norway and Russia, but at the same time it shows other Arctic nations how to solve border issues in the Arctic. Just look at how Norway has solved all their continental shelf claims through good dialogue with your neighbours. No hostility and no conflict." Solving border issues through bilaterally discussions in a peaceful manner like Norway did, is the best solution in Vasiliev’s opinion. Areas of focus For Russia there are four key areas of focus for their Arctic strategy. It is the use of Arctic resources, it is to maintain political stability, it is to maintain a sustainable development and it is to make better use of the Northern Sea Route for commercial ship traffic. Vasilliev see that things are changing very fast now in the Arctic. Not many did foresee the rapid growth in traffic through the Northern Sea Route. As the number of commercial ship transits is closing 100 each season, the need for better security measures has become more and more urgent. “Russia has invested a lot in strengthening the infrastructure along the NSR, with more ice breakers, better port infrastructure and more satellites to monitor the area. This will make the travel far safer for search and rescue operations” says Vasiliev. Their ev is alarmism -- cooperation outweighs in the Arctic.Macalister, ‘11 [Terry, energy editor of the Guardian, 7-6, “US and Russia stir up political tensions over Arctic,” http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/06/us-russia-political-tensions-arctic] The message was clear: the US is putting itself at the centre of the debate about the future of the far north at a time when a new oil and mineral "cold rush" is under way as global warming makes extraction more easy. And being the US, the soft diplomacy was backed up with a bit of symbolic hardware. A few weeks earlier two nuclear-powered submarines were sent to patrol 150 miles north of Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. Meanwhile Russia – also on the eight-nation council – was happy to push off the agenda any idea that countries such as China could gain observer status. The US navy move comes as Russia is said to have increased missile testing in the region and Norway has moved its main military base to the far north. Meanwhile China has started to woo countries such as Greenland, which are rich in rare earth minerals needed for mobile phones and other hi-tech equipment. The competing commercial interests in the Arctic are complicated by the lack of a comprehensive agreement on who owns what. Many countries are in the process of submitting competing land claims to the UN as part of its Law of the Sea Convention – a treaty as yet unsigned by the US. Canada and others were also disturbed when Artur Chilingarov, a veteran Russian polar explorer, placed a flag on the Arctic seabed in 2007. He told reporters his mission was to show the Arctic was Russian, adding: "We must prove the north pole is an extension of the Russian landmass." Canada took exception to the Russian move, seeing it as provocative, but Moscow dismissed the furore, insisting it was a theatrical gesture by a scientist hired by private companies to make the descent. But it is telling that the following year Chilingarov – also a member of the state parliament – was awarded a new title, Hero of the Russian Federation. Concerns about a new cold war – if not just a cold rush – have led academics such as Rob Huebert, a professor of political science at the University of Calgary, to warn in a recent paper prepared for the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute that "an arms race may be beginning". Huebert says he has heard the Russian prime minister, Vladimir Putin, talking of the need to establish a "zone of peace" in the Arctic but sees contrary actions as well. "Not withstanding the public statements of peace and co-operation in the Arctic issued by the Arctic states, tThe strategic value of the region is growing. As this value grows, each state will attach a greater value to their own national interests in the region. The Arctic states may be talking co-operation, but they are preparing for conflict." Meanwhile Admiral James Stavridis, Nato's supreme allied commander in Europe, in a foreword to a recent Whitehall Ppaper published by the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies in London, argued: "For now, the disputes in the north have been dealt with peacefully, but climate change could alter the equilibrium over the coming years in the race of temptation for exploitation of more readily accessible natural resources." Stavridis believes military assets, such as coastguards, have an important role to play with international co-ordination in the area – but mainly for specialist assistance around commercial and other interests. He added: "The cascading interests and broad implications stemming from the effects of climate change should cause today's global leaders to take stock, and unify their efforts to ensure the Arctic remains a zone of co-operation – rather than proceed down the icy slope towards a zone of competition, or worse a zone of conflict." Huebert points out that as well as opening a new ultra-hi-tech operations centre inside a mountain at Reitan, in the far north of Norway, Oslo is also spending unprecedented money on new military hardware, not least five top-of-the-range frigates. The class of vessel is called Fridtjof Nansen, after the famous polar explorer, which perhaps indicates where the navy plans to deploy them. Meanwhile Canada's then foreign minister, Lawrence Cannon, voiced confidence his nation would win the territory. "We will exercise sovereignty in the Arctic," he told his Russian counterpart in talks in Moscow. But optimists say the fears are exaggerated and point to positive developments, not least Norway and Russia agreeing a mutually acceptable boundary line dividing up the Barents Sea. A partnership between Russia, Norway, the US and Britain has been quietly and successfully working away at decommissioning nuclear submarines and tackling other radioactive waste problems in the Kola Peninsula and Arkhangelsk regions. One former foreign minister told the Guardian: "We want to avoid complacency but all this alarmist talk of meltdown should be shunned. The Arctic is quite pacific. It is not a place of turmoil but an area of low tension." More ev -- cooperations increasing now.Dingman 11 – freelance writer and researcher whose work focuses on the Arctic, Inuit, and Canada/United States relations. She holds a Master's in International Affairs from The New School. (Erica, “The Arctic: Cooperation or Confrontation?” World Policy Blog, March 23, 2011, http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2011/03/23/arctic-cooperation-or-confrontation, Callahan) One example is that of the United States and Canada, who have had a longstanding dispute over where to draw the line defining their border in the Beaufort Sea. While each country uses different parameters to stake their claim, in the summer of 2010 the United States and Canada collaborated for the third consecutive year on mapping the seabed of the Beaufort Sea. Unlike prior years, the 2010 survey included a sonar probe of the contested area. The findings will be useful to representatives of both governments, who started talks in July 2010 aimed toward resolution of overlapping interests in the Beaufort. Russia is also in the midst of resolving offshore boundary disputes. On September 15, 2010 Russia and Norway signed the bilateral Treaty Concerning Maritime Delimitation and Cooperation in the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean, after four decades of tough negotiation. Norway’s Parliament ratified the treaty in February 2011, and President Medvedev sent the Treaty to the State Duma, which is expected to ratify it. Several Russo-Norwegian joint military exercises are slated for this year, and the two states have pledged to protect the environment, keep fish stocks at a sustainable level, and possibly cooperate on the exploitation of trans-boundary oil deposits. These cooperative efforts should serve as an example to other Arctic nations, demonstrating that difficult, drawn-out negotiations can result in a win-win outcome. Within days of the Russia-Norway treaty, Foreign Ministers Sergei Lavrov and Jonas Gahr Støre jointly penned an article for the Toronto Globe and Mailtitled “Canada, take note: Here’s how to resolve maritime disputes.” The two ministers wrote that the experience created “enormous value” in terms of the bi-lateral relations and for the “international community at large.” They went on to say that “when states consider their interests in a long-term perspective, aiming for sustainable solutions” the potential advantages far outweigh the individual gains. Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. 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