No scenario for escalation inevitable incentives for conflict minimization
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- No terminal impact.
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AsiaAfghanistan WarTons of alt causes to Afghanistan stability.Arbour, ‘11[Louise, president -- International Crisis Group, 12-27, “Next Year's Wars,” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/12/27/next_years_wars] A decade of major security, development, and humanitarian assistance from the international community has failed to create a stable Afghanistan, a fact highlighted by deteriorating security and a growing insurgent presence in previously stable provinces over the past year. In 2011, the capital alone saw a barrage of suicide bombings, including the deadliest attack in the city since 2001; multiple strikes on foreign missions in Kabul, the British Council, and U.S. Embassy; and the assassination of former president and chief peace negotiator Burhanuddin Rabbani. The prospects for next year are no brighter, with many key provinces scheduled for transfer to the ill-equipped Afghan security forces by early 2012. The litany of obstacles to peace, or at least stability, in Afghanistan is by now familiar. President Hamid Karzai rules by fiat, employing a combination of patronage and executive abuse of power. State institutions and services are weak or nonexistent in much of the country, or else so riddled with corruption that Afghans want nothing to do with them. Dari-speaking ethnic minorities remain skeptical about the prospects for reconciliation with the predominately Pashtun Taliban insurgency, which enjoys the backing of Pakistan's military and intelligence services. The Taliban leadership in Quetta seem to reason that victory is within reach and that they have simply to bide their time until the planned U.S. withdrawal in 2014. No terminal impact.Haass, ‘9[Richard N., President -- CFR, former Director of the State Department's Policy Planning Staff, 11-9, “In the Afghan War, Aim for the Middle,” http://www.cfr.org/publication/20383/in_the_afghan_war_aim_for_the_middle.html] Why does Afghanistan matter? We generally hear four arguments. First, if the Taliban returns to power, Afghanistan will again be a haven for terrorist groups. Second, if the Taliban takes over, Afghanistan will again become a human rights nightmare. Third, a perceived defeat of the United States in Afghanistan would be a blow to U.S. prestige everywhere and would embolden radicals. Fourth, an Afghanistan under Taliban control would be used by extremists as a sanctuary from which to destabilize Pakistan. None of these assumptions is as strong as proponents maintain. Afghanistan certainly matters -- the question is how much. Al-Qaeda does not require Afghan real estate to constitute a regional or global threat. Terrorists gravitate to areas of least resistance; if they cannot use Afghanistan, they will use countries such as Yemen or Somalia, as in fact they already are. No doubt, the human rights situation would grow worse under Taliban rule, but helping Afghan girls get an education, no matter how laudable, is not a goal that justifies an enormous U.S. military commitment. And yes, the taking of Kabul by the Taliban would become part of the radicals' narrative, but the United States fared well in Asia after the fall of South Vietnam, and less than a decade after an ignominious withdrawal from Beirut, the United States amassed the international coalition that ousted Saddam Hussein from Kuwait. There are and always will be opportunities to demonstrate the effectiveness of U.S. power. More ev -- alt causes.Kjaernet and Torjeson 8 – *Research Fellow in the Energy Programme and the Department of Russia and Eurasia at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and Senior Research Fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (Heidi and Stina, “Afghanistan and Regional Instability: A Risk Assessment”, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, http://english.nupi.no/Publications/Books-and-reports/2008/Afghanistan-and-regional-instability-A-risk-assessment) The regional context of Afghanistan poses a range of challenges for the country’s stabilisation process: Pakistan Pakistan’s central government has lacked control of developments in the areas bordering Afghanistan (Baluchistan, the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and the North-West Frontier Province), making President Musharraf unable to implement the US-encouraged crackdown on Pakistani Taleban supporters. The Pakistani border areas have become a key source of weapons, equipment and new recruits for anti-government militant groups in Afghanistan, while Pakistan–Afghanistan bilateral relations remain, as so often before, strained. The Pakistani election results from February 18 2008 give grounds for cautious optimism. Nevertheless, the serious challenges stemming from Pakistan will continue in the short to medium term for Afghanistan. Iran–US tensions The standoff between Iran and the USA over Iran’s nuclear programme has introduced difficulties in Iran–Afghan relations. Iran remains an important supporter of the Western-backed Hamid Karzai government. Nevertheless, in the face of US pressure, Iran is beginning to demonstrate, according to some reports, its ability to destabilise Afghanistan and derail Washington’s Afghan campaign, as a means of enhancing its overall leverage regarding the USA.1 Geopolitical rivalries Geopolitical rivalries in the region preclude any optimal co-ordination of support to Afghanistan by neighbours and great powers. These tensions include the long-standing conflict between India and Pakistan as well as the serious Russian and Chinese unease over the US and NATO military presence in the region. Regional trade difficulties Security concerns and post-Soviet bureaucratic inertia prevent Afghanistan’s northern neighbours from fully endorsing the vision, promoted by the USA and other nations, of Afghanistan’s economic recovery being facilitated by denser integration into regional trade and communication links. Uzbekistan The government of Uzbekistan is highly authoritarian and deeply unpopular. Large-scale political and social upheaval remains one likely future scenario for the country. Upheaval in Uzbekistan would pose a serious challenge to the stability of Afghanistan’s northern and western territories, including Mazar-e-sharif and possibly Meymaneh, where Norwegian troops are stationed. The German-run ISAF base located in Termez in Uzbekistan near the Uzbekistan–Afghanistan border, and Mazar-e-sharif would be particularly vulnerable in case of upheaval in Uzbekistan. Drugs Drugs production and trafficking constitute one of Afghanistan’s central domestic challenges, but drugs trafficking can also be seen as a regional problem. The large-scale criminal activities and incomes associated with regional drug flows are undermining the states of the region: in this way Afghanistan’s neighbours – Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in particular – are becoming weaker, more criminalised, more unstable and less able to act as constructive partners for Afghanistan. Water Afghanistan’s northern neighbours have a lengthy history of water disputes. If Afghanistan in the medium or long term decides to claim its legitimate share of the region’s water resources – as it may well do in order to further its economic development – then water-sharing in the region will become even more difficult. Bilateral and multilateral relations between and among the Central Asian states have been severely strained at times, although fully fledged ‘water wars’ have remained a remote prospect. regional actors will maintain instability.BBC Monitoring South Asia, 2009, “Paper says neighbors can end Afghanistan War,” December 19 2009, lexis. One of the issues related to the war in Afghanistan has been the role of Afghanistan's neighbours in this war and effects of their policies on war and political processes related to war in Afghanistan. It has been believed that if Afghanistan's neighbours do not support the war, it cannot last long. Taking this belief into consideration, it has been argued on many occasions that Afghanistan's neighbours especially Pakistan have not had a genuine interest in ending this war. Although Pakistan has constantly spoken about its cooperation with the government of Afghanistan and the international community for peace and stability in Afghanistan, Pakistani claims have not been believed. US Commander in the Middle East and Central Asia, General David Petraeus, recently asked Pakistan to put pressure on Taleban on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. This demonstrates that the international community is not convinced that Pakistan has changed its policy on extremist groups in the region. Although Pakistan is at war with local Taleban in that country, it has a different policy on Afghan Taleban and does not want pressure on this group. Another country that can play an important role in the war in Afghanistan is Russia. NATO secretary general recently asked [Dmitry] Medvedev Wednesday last week to play a bigger role in supporting NATO troops in Afghanistan by dedicating more helicopters to these forces. It was reported some time ago that NATO forces have shown interest in using Russian made helicopters in their war in Afghanistan. Reports explained that NATO forces want to use Russian helicopters in Afghanistan because they are more suitable to Afghan terrain and climate and can be more effective in peace operations. Meanwhile, there are reports that Taleban are receiving Iranian weapons. According to Commander of US forces in Middle East and Central Asia, General David Petraeus, that these weapons are supplied to Taleban mainly in Western border areas between Afghanistan and Iran. Previously, such reports were unofficially discussed and even the Taleban were quoted as confirming these reports about their access to Iranian weapons. The Iranian government, however, has repeatedly rejected these reports and claims. Taking the negative relations between Iran and the United States into consideration, a number of political analysts believe that American military presence in Afghanistan has raised serious concerns for Iran. Therefore, Iran will do favours to the Taleban. These reports demonstrate that the negative role of Afghanistan's neighbours in the war in Afghanistan and their lack of support political process for peace and development in Afghanistan have resulted in the failure to achieve the desired results in this country despite spending heavy sums of money and investing human capital in Afghanistan for eight years. Efforts should therefore be made to ensure that these countries change their policies on Afghanistan and play a positive role in the political processes initiated by the government in this country. Experts believe that this can be possible only when Afghanistan's government is able to establish close relations with countries neighbouring Afghanistan and close to Afghanistan and if Afghanistan can convince them that a strong central government in Afghanistan will not pose any problems to those countries. Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. Objective files -> Pop Warner History files -> North Carolina Inclusion Initiative Mapping Where Children with ieps are Being Served Purpose files -> Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Program Data: Standard 1 Exhibit 4d files -> Hanban – asia society confucius classrooms network 2010 request for proposal files -> Northern England’s set-jetting locations Download 1.24 Mb. Share with your friends:
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