Oil 1 Peak Oil 21
Alt en bad for Russian econ
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Alt en bad for Russian econThe only way to decrease prices is to cut demand with alternative energy Michael Kranish of The Boston Globe in October 7, 2005 “Energy chief faces heat on oil crisis,” http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2005/10/07/energy_chief_faces_heat_on_oil_crisis/ Bodman, who became energy secretary in February, insists that the energy bill signed into law in August focused on long-term initiatives, including a new round of nuclear power-plant construction and funds for renewable energy programs. The only way to decrease oil prices in the short term, Bodman said, is to cut demand. Some critics, however, said the administration for the last five years has not mandated higher auto fuel efficiency or gas taxes that could have decreased demand, or put a windfall profits tax on energy companies. Bodman has plenty of fans in the industry, administration, and Congress. The question is whether an administration filled with top officials who once worked in the oil business, including Bodman, has the mindset to start investing heavily in energy sources other than oil, natural gas, and nuclear power. New tech would crush the russian econ – high prices are key Michael G Gallagher PhD degrees in the field of international studies 2007 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IH28Dj02.html Russia is another major oil-producing country that could find its finances stressed with the widespread introduction of new energy technologies. With a GDP of nearly $800 billion, Russia is in the middle of an oil-driven economic boom. Eighty percent of Russia's export money comes from oil. Unlike most other energy exporters, however, Russia does have a big manufacturing sector. In 2005, 23.2% of the country's export revenues came from manufactured goods. Unfortunately, a big slice of that money came from weapons sales. Russia sold $6.5 billion worth of weapons in 2006. But no matter how lucrative hawking weaponry may be, it's not going to be able replace Russia's reliance on pumping oil. The Russians are certainly aware of their heavy dependence on fuel exports. Cutting the demand for oil will decrease prices Sridhar Jagganathan is currently the Vice President of Technology for Softbank Emerging Markets May 31, 2006 “Hawking India's soul?” http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2006/03/31/stories/2006033100891000.htm SEEKING ALTERNATIVES This is already happening — increased funding of wind farms, more exploration of marginal oil fields, the phoenix-like rise of the nuclear industry, and active measures by the automotive industry to extract greater fuel efficiency. It does not take much increase in demand to push up oil prices, and a small rise in conservation and alternative energy supply acts to decrease oil prices. India's and China's energy needs will put pressure on the available supply of oil, and its price will tend to rise. This demand-side pressure is felt globally which then introduces the virtuous cycle of decreased consumption and alternative energy acceleration. Thus, India's needs become a global problem and the rest of the world responds in a manner that forces oil prices to fall. Low oil prices collapse Russian econRussia’s economy will remain high as long as oil prices do By Guy Faulconbridge writer for The Moscow Times Thu May 29, 2008 “Russia can be top economy if not complacent-Kremlin”his name indicates that he is a guy, this is very misleading. http://in.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idINL2976097320080529?sp=true MOSCOW, May 29 (Reuters) - The Kremlin warned on Thursday against economic complacency but said that if sensible policies were continued then Russia could be one of the world's top five economies by 2020. Russia's economy is booming for a 10th straight year, buoyed by record oil prices, massive demand for natural resources and soaring domestic consumer demand. But President Dmitry Medvedev's newly appointed chief of staff, Sergei Naryshkin, told the ruling United Russia party that economic stability was not guaranteed forever. At the meeting, which was closed to foreign media, Naryshkin warned against "implanting in the consciousness that the economic stability we have achieved has been given to us forever. "High oil prices do not give a guarantee of macro-economic stability," Naryshkin was quoted by United Russia as saying. "A fall in prices is possible, a fall in the oil price which would lead to the destabilisation of the entire economy.” Low oil prices would collapse the Russian economy. Andrea Peters World Socialist Website. 10/12/2007 "Russia: Putin launches electoral bid to retain power," http://www.wsws.org/articles/2007/oct2007/puti-o12.shtml However, the Russian economy is plagued by serious problems. While investment in manufacturing and other industries has significantly increased over the past several years, the oil and gas industries are still the linchpin of Russia’s economic boom. This places the country in a precarious position, as any decline in energy prices on the world market, or challenges to its geopolitical position in the world’s oil producing and transportation areas, would be a significant blow to the country’s economy. Decrease oil prices collapses political stability in Russia Derek Mitchell senior fellow for Asia in the CSIS International Security Program 2007 http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_pubs/task,view/id,4209/type,1/ While it is obviously difficult to predict major discontinuity in Russia or elsewhere, the next administration will need to keep in mind that Russia for much of its history has shown a remarkable proclivity toward discontinuity and unpredictability. The current economic recovery and apparent political stabilization sit on a fairly fragile foundation. A crash in the price of oil will upset the current stability just as it was a precursor to major change and then collapse in the Soviet Union 20 years ago. There is no question that Putin and his team see themselves presiding over a stable authoritarian modernization of Russia for the next two to three decades. But history is replete with nations pursuing authoritarian modernization plans that have gone awry. Low oil prices collapse Russian econEmpirically low oil prices trigger social explosions – Russia is particularly susceptible The Economist Mar 4th 1999 “Why cheap oil may be bad” http://www.economist.com/people/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_TRRTRT But other countries are heading for big trouble. Nearly half of Russia's hard-currency earnings come from crude-oil exports; that figure rises to about 80% for Venezuela and 95% for Nigeria and Algeria. In Russia (and also in the Caspian) low oil prices may make much production unprofitable. In Venezuela, where production costs are lower, the bursting of the oil bubble has helped to propel a populist military man, jailed for two failed coups in 1992, into the presidency. Prolonged low prices could trigger social explosions in several other unstable producing countries. Low oil prices would collapse the Russian economy The Inquiry-Response System on International Educational Cooperation of Russia and the USA 2007 “Macro Economy” http://www.usa-russia.edu.ru/english/read/russia/econom Central and local government expenditures are about equal. Combined they come to about 38% of GDP. Fiscal policy has been very disciplined since the 1998 debt crisis. The overall budget surplus for 2001 was 2.4% of GDP, allowing for the first time in history for the next year's budget to be calculated with a surplus (1.63% of GDP). Much of this growth, which exceeded most expectations for the third consecutive year, was driven by consumption demand. Analysts remain skeptical that high rates of economic growth will continue, particularly since Russia's planned budgets through 2005 assume that oil prices will steadily increase. Low oil prices would mean that the Russian economy would not achieve its projected growth. However, high oil prices also would have negative economic effects, as they would cause the ruble to continue to appreciate and make Russian exports less competitive. The 2007 budget law corporates a 25% increase in spending, much of it for public-sector salary increases, pension increases and social programmes. Spending on education is targeted to increase by 60% relative to the 2006 legislation and spending on healthcare is to increase by 30%. Funding for the four "national projects", undertakings in agriculture, education, housing and healthcare, will increase by 85 billion roubles over the 2006 figure to 230 billion roubles. Natural resources. The mineral-packed Ural Mountains and the vast oil, gas, coal, and timber reserves of Siberia and the Russian Far East make Russia rich in natural resources. However, most such resources are located in remote and climatically unfavorable areas that are difficult to develop and far from Russian ports. Oil and gas exports continue to be the main source of hard currency. Russia is a leading producer and exporter of minerals, gold, and all major fuels. The Russian fishing industry is the world's fourth-largest, behind Japan, the United States, and China. Natural resources, especially energy, dominate Russian exports. Ninety percent of Russian exports to the United States are minerals or other raw materials. Directory: file -> view view -> Western Europe after wwii view -> Author study: paul fleischman view -> Qpa1 7ela study Guide view -> Arctic Oil/Gas Neg view -> November 1970 Approximately 150,000-500,000 deaths Bhola Cyclone Bangladesh view -> Grade Level: 6 Unit of Study: Caribbean glce view -> Citation: Duffield, Katy view -> Table of Contents Lesson # view -> Chinese Wind Energy Disad Download 9.54 Mb. Share with your friends:
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