Oil 1 Peak Oil 21



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Now Key



Shift from oil is inevitable, its just a question of if we adapt now to mitigate the impact or do nothing and cause extinction.

Paul Roberts, Journalist, Finalist for the National Magazine Award, ‘4

(The End of Oil, p. 12-14)
That brings us back to the question of smooth or sudden change. Admittedly, even if the world knew exactly when non-OPEC oil was going to peak, only so much could be done to prepare, given the size of the existing oil infrastructure and the complacency of the average consumer. Yet it's also true that were Western governments to begin taking steps to reduce oil demand, or at least to slow the rate at which it is growing (by, say, raising fuel efficiency standards for cars), the impact of such a peak would be lessened dramatically — and the world would gain all the benefits of using something other than oil. At the same time, if the consuming world instead continues in its current mode — known by energy economists and other worriers as "business as usual" — oil demand will be so high by 2015 that a peak (or any big disruption, such as a civil war in Saudi Arabia or a massive climate-related disaster that kills thousands and forces politicians to cut the use of oil and other hydrocarbons in a hurry) could be an unmitigated disaster. Thus, the real question, for anyone truly concerned about our future, is not whether change is going to come, but whether the shift will be peaceful and orderly or chaotic and violent because we waited too long to begin planning for it.

Err Aff



Our authors analysis is better?

Richard Heinberg, Senior Fellow at the Post Carbon Institute, ‘5

(The Party's Over : Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies, p. 133-134) [Bozman]
In many two-sided controversies, the bystander is justified in assuming that both sides have valid points and that the truth probably lies roughly equidistant between extreme claims. But on the vital question of when world oil production will peak, the arguments of cornucopians like Huber, Lomborg, and Lynch appear vague and weak, and the assessments of public agencies like the USGS and EIA sometimes break down under close scrutiny. In contrast, the clarity and logic of the analysis, and the depth of expertise, of the petroleum pessimists ? Campbell, Laherrère, Deffeyes, Youngquist, et al. ? seem impressive.
Even if we only win a small risk of solvency, you still must affirm the plan.

Bob Lloyd, Physics Department at Otago University, November, ‘7

(Energy Policy, Volume 35, Issue 11, p. 5806-5818, Science Direct) [Bozman]
If we are faced with a seemingly impossible situation (i.e. no solution exists), any solution that we can suggest, even if the chances of success are perceived as small, must rationally be attempted. It is clear, at least, that looking for a solution to the two problems of depleting oil resources and global warming cannot be accomplished within the current economic paradigm as this paradigm has caused the problems in the first place.

Even if benign scenarios are conceivable, catastrophic ones are signifiganty more likely.

Nader Elhefnawy, Visiting Assistant Professor of Literature at the University of Miami, April, ‘8



(The Impending Oil Shock, Survival, Volume 50, Number 2, p. Ebsco) [Bozman]
A benign scenario in which continued high levels of oil production, bolstered by supplies of unconventional oil, keep the oil economy financially (though perhaps not environmentally) viable through the twenty-second century is conceivable, but is not the most likely scenario. It seems more probable that exaggerated reserves (proven and unproven), a declining rate of oil discovery and peaking production in mature fields will combine to tighten supplies, perhaps more rapidly than can be fully compensated for by unconventional oil supplies. The timing and severity of that tightening is admittedly open to question. Belated discoveries or technological improvements that increase output, or a general economic downturn that suppresses the rise in oil consumption, are conceivable. Nonetheless, the evidence for a significant, prolonged and continuing contraction in production (or alternatively, of significantly raised prices) beginning by the 2020s is considerable.

***Neg***




Peak Oil Advantage – 1NC Frontline


1. Peak isn’t coming – production is outpacing demand.
Ismael Hossein-zadeh, professor of economics at Drake University, Middle East Online, “Is the Global Oil Crunch a Myth?” 7/14/08, http://www.alternet.org/waroniraq/91226/?ses=90199afda271d8776163a80e42f549c0
Perceptions of insufficient oil supply are also heightened by the recently resuscitated theory of the so-called Peak Oil, which maintains that world production of conventional oil will soon reach--if it has not already reached--a maximum, or peak, and decline thereafter, with grave socio-economic consequences.
However, claims of an oil shortage are not supported by facts. Evidence shows that, in reality, there is no discrepancy between production and consumption of oil on a global level. Citing statistical evidence of parity between production and consumption of oil, OPEC President Chakib Khelil recently emphasized that there was no shortage of oil: "As far as fundamentals are concerned I think we have equilibrium between supply and demand. . . . In fact right now we have more supply than demand."
Facts of abundant oil supplies in global markets are now also being acknowledged and reported by mainstream media. For example, Ed Wallace of Business Week recently reported that "that worldwide production of oil has risen 2.5% in the first quarter, while worldwide demand has grown by only 2%. Production is expected to increase by 3.3% in the second quarter, and by as much as 4.1% by the third quarter. The net result is that the US daily buffer for oil production against demand, which was a paltry 1.5 million barrels as recently as 2005, is now up to 3 million barrels in excess capacity today."

Peak Oil Advantage – 1NC Frontline


2. High oil prices solve – they encourage energy conservation and technological efficiency innovation.
Peter R. Odell, Proessor Emeritus of International Energy Studies @ Erasmus University, “Why Carbon Fuels Will Dominate the 21st Century’s Global Energy Economy,” 2004


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