Oil 1 Peak Oil 21
Peak Oil Advantage – 1NC Frontline
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- Peak Oil Advantage – 1NC Frontline
Peak Oil Advantage – 1NC FrontlineB. The model is wrong - Hubbert didn’t account for political and technological changes. Oil production isn’t a bell-curve, it’s a plateau. Bob Williams, executive director, Oil & Gas Journal, “Debate over peak-oil issue boiling over, with major implications for industry, society,” 7/14/03, pg. 18 A number of prominent energy consultants, economists, and petroleum scientist have taken issue with the notion that the world awaits an imminent peak in oil production. Thomas Ahlbrandt, world energy project chief with the US Geological Survey in Denver, objects to the concept underlying the Hubbert curve. "Is there an imminent oil peak? The short answer is no," he said. "I believe in the plateau concept, which reconciles the need for additional resources within the constraints of infrastructure and capital investment. "The symmetric rise and fall of oil production is not technically supportable, as Hubbert, Laherrere, and others have published, although generally not recognized by (Colin) Campbell, (Kenneth) Deffeyes, and others who have been making draconian end-of-civilization claims since 1989 and every year since , , , Why is there no accountability for these failed forecasts either by Hubbert or disciples such as Campbell, Laherrere, etc.?" Instead, Ahlbrandt and others point to even mature areas such as the UK North Sea, which in the past 20 years has repeatedly defied forecasts of a bell-curve-style decline (Figs. 6-7). And peak-oil critics also noted the surge in discoveries in areas deemed critical for future supply, such as the deepwater Gulf of Mexico (Fig. 8). Sarah Emerson, managing director, Energy Security Analysis Inc., Wakefield, Mass., is one of many energy economists who contend that the Hubbert modelers disregard the roles of oil supply, demand, and prices as well political and regulatory impacts. "I do not believe the peak in global oil production is imminent," she told OGJ. ", , , The geologists who present the resource scarcity argument tend to ignore changes in the economic context. For example, foreign investment laws can change in countries with large reserves and limited access to capital or technology. This means places where we never expected development (or expected slow development) suddenly open up. A list of the countries who have opened up to foreign investment is an impressive who's who of producers: Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Venezuela, now Iraq, and maybe even someday Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. New-found access to capital and technology requires a total reappraisal of resource development." She contends that the global oil industry and market is "incredibly dynamic, constantly changing as it responds to regulation and innovation. "The Hubbert curve analysis is far too static to stand as a guiding assessment of the future of global oil supply. As with any 'model' results, it should be one input into a broader, more comprehensive market analysis." Peak Oil Advantage – 1NC Frontline=5. Multiple factors solve the peak: Tech ISMAEL HOSSEIN-ZADEH, professor of economics at Drake University, CounterPunch, “Are There Really Oil Wars?” 7/9/08, http://www.counterpunch.org/zadeh07092008.html Peak oil theory is based on a number of assumptions and omissions that make it less than reliable. To begin with, it discounts or disregards the fact that energy-saving technologies have drastically improved (and will continue to further improve) the efficiency of oil consumption. Evidence shows that, for example, “over a period of five years (1994-99), U.S. GDP expanded over 20 percent while oil usage rose by only nine percent. Before the 1973 oil shock, the ratio was about one to one.”[4] Second, Peak Oil theory pays scant attention to the drastically enabling new technologies that have made (and will continue to make) possible discovery and extraction of oil reserves that were inaccessible only a short time ago. One of the results of the more efficient means of research and development has been a far higher success rate in finding new oil fields. The success rate has risen in twenty years from less than 70 percent to over 80 percent. Computers have helped to reduce the number of dry holes. Horizontal drilling has boosted extraction. Another important development has been deep-water offshore drilling, which the new technologies now permit. Good examples are the North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and more recently, the promising offshore oil fields of West Africa.[5] Peak Oil Advantage – 1NC FrontlineNatural Gas Peter R. Odell, Proessor Emeritus of International Energy Studies @ Erasmus University, “Why Carbon Fuels Will Dominate the 21st Century’s Global Energy Economy,” 2004, p. xi-xii 
Unconventional Oil Bob Williams, executive director, Oil & Gas Journal, “Heavy hydrocarbons playing key role in peak-oil debate, future energy supply” 7/28/03, Increasing production of unconventional oil could be crucial for meeting future global oil demand. In the near to middle term, almost all of that unconventional oil supply will come in the form of extra-heavy crude and bitumen. Just as some experts predict a near-term precipitous decline in conventional oil production, others point to burgeoning supplies of upgraded and synthetic crude derived from the world's vast tar sands, oil sands, bitumen resources. Some see those as the linchpin in bridging the gap between peak of global conventional oil production and more-exotic nonconventional energy sources. Those who favor the view that peak-oil is imminent generally dismiss the contribution to world oil supply to be made by heavy oil and bitumen as inadequate within their projected time-frames for global oil production peaking. But unlike many other nonconventional energy sources, heavy hydrocarbons are already making a robust, economically viable contribution to the world's oil supply today (Fig. 1). And the outlook is for that contribution to rise significantly in the decades to come. This outlook hinges on continuing improvements in reducing the cost of heavy hydrocarbon production through technology advances and efficiency improvements. In fact, the consensus is that production of heavy hydrocarbons has reached a point where it can be sustained through a range of oil prices once thought unsurvivable. That bodes well for the world's future volumes and diversity of oil supply. But it also presents challenges for producers and refiners that must exert ever-greater efforts to squeeze value from a increasingly poor-quality production stream. Even as producers step up efforts to enhance the value of heavy hydrocarbons upstream of the refinery, today's refiners must adapt -- in terms of logistics as well as process operations -- to an expanding slate of new synthetic crude oils (SCOs). Directory: file -> view view -> Western Europe after wwii view -> Author study: paul fleischman view -> Qpa1 7ela study Guide view -> Arctic Oil/Gas Neg view -> November 1970 Approximately 150,000-500,000 deaths Bhola Cyclone Bangladesh view -> Grade Level: 6 Unit of Study: Caribbean glce view -> Citation: Duffield, Katy view -> Table of Contents Lesson # view -> Chinese Wind Energy Disad Download 9.54 Mb. Share with your friends:
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