Oil 1 Peak Oil 21
No Impact – Smooth Transition
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No Impact – Smooth TransitionAdequate fossil fuel resources and a guaranteed commitment to a renewable energy economy will cause smooth transition. Steven Schafersman, petroleum geologist, “Be Scared; Be Very Scared,”10/10/02, www.freeinquiry.com/skeptic/badgeology/energy/commentary.htm Finally, let's look at the main pillar of the doomsayers' argument, that crude oil has reached or soon will reach its peak, and the decline will result in invidious economic effects. Is this true? No! William Fisher, professor of geology at the University of Texas, former director of the Texas Bureau of Economic Geology (the state geological survey), and a distinguished petroleum consultant and analyst, has investigated the issues thoroughly and written many papers about the subject of oil depletion. He supports the conclusions of the USGS and the major petroleum companies, that "traditional energy resources, chiefly fossil fuels, are adequate to meet likely global energy demands as the transition to a hydrogen and renewable energy economy is made over the next three to five decades." For this to happen, "long-term trends in efficiency in energy development, use, and conversion will continue and be enlarged." No Energy War No energy war – free markets solve. Ronald Bailey, science correspondent for Reason magazine, Reason, “Peak Oil Panic,” 5/06, http://www.reason.com/news/show/36645.html Instead of preparing for an energy war, the best policy is to let markets have free rein. Even if, say, the Iranians make the political decision to disrupt the flow of oil to world markets, those markets left to themselves will eventually discipline them. The temporarily higher prices will encourage more exploration and technological advances, which will bring energy prices back down. On the day of his inauguration in 1981, President Ronald Reagan lifted oil price controls. Five years later oil prices fell below $10 a barrel. One day, the oil age will end. As with all resources, there is ultimately a finite supply of oil. So it is not yet clear how the world will power itself for the bulk of the coming century. But we have at least another three decades to find alternatives to petroleum. “Trusting markets is the only way we can assure energy abundance in the future,” notes the University of Houston’s Economides. “It’s also the only way that we will ever transition to something other than oil and gas.” Alt Energy = Warming IncreaseRapid expansion of alt energy causes bottom to drop out of natural gas industry, spurring increased methane emissions. Peter R. Odell, Proessor Emeritus of International Energy Studies @ Erasmus University, “Why Carbon Fuels Will Dominate the 21st Century’s Global Energy Economy,” 2004, p. xii-xiii 
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