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Inflation extensionHigher oil prices collapse the red-hot Russian economy – inflation By Ed Bentley staff writer for the Moscow News Weekly 06/06/2008 “Russia’s Roaring Economy not out of the Forest”this man most likely owns a sweet car. http://mnweekly.rian.ru/business/20080606/55331949.html Russia - in just eight years - has firmly established itself as a thriving and rapidly developing economy. Total output has grown by 67 percent, and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has said that he expects this figure to overtake that of the UK by the end of this year. Moreover, since 1999, stock market capitalization has increased 22-fold and foreign trade turnover five-fold. These positive trends appear set to continue, with the IMF forecasting another 33 percent increase in GDP by 2013. Yes, the Russian economy is red-hot. But there remain some lingering doubts about the economy's long term success and stability. Inflation Russia's biggest task is to balance economic growth while keeping inflation low. During the 1990s, inflation sometimes soared to over 10 percent a month, wiping out people's savings and triggering mild panic in the economy. Although the inflation dragon has been tamed, it continues to be stuck at over 10 percent annually. This year the inflation target has been revised up to 10 percent after price increases at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, the IMF predicts that inflation will finish at 11.4 percent for the year. The major factor causing inflation is the massive increase in oil prices since 2002. In the last six years there has been an increase from approximately $20 a barrel to $125. Furthermore, there has been speculation that oil prices will continue to rise and according to Goldman Sachs and the Iranian oil minister, they could hit $200 a barrel in two years. Russia's economy is highly dependent on natural resources, with 28 percent of exports to the U.S. last year being oil and gas products. The high oil prices have helped the Russian economy to grow, while even permitting for the creation of a massive stabilization fund. The downside is that the influx of petrodollars contributes to inflationary pressure. Another serious concern are rising world food prices. Although very little can be done to prevent this shock to the Russian economy, it will predominantly affect those who are already struggling with poverty. The government is aware that there is a trade off between growth and inflation and therefore most of the stabilization fund won't be spent immediately, despite some sectors needing heavy investment. Putin will play a prominent role in the economy in his new post of Prime Minister, and perhaps there is no other person better qualified for the task of bringing inflation down to single digits, since this was one of Putin's stated goals as president. Investors are often discouraged by high inflation as the instability it causes makes future profits insecure, so taming inflation is job one. In St. Petersburg, two conferences will be held on inflation ("New challenges on the world food market" and "Energy - Global players and arbiters"). This shows the government's priorities in these sectors, which are the primary causes of inflation in Russia. Global Challenges and Opportunities The rising price of energy products appears extremely beneficial for Russia's economy. The revenue from exports is already massive and this has helped fuel growth in the last eight years. Any further increase will certainly be an opportunity but could also present serious challenges. Relations turnRelations 2AC1. Russian oil power collapses relations, high oil prices make cooperation impossible VLADIMIR RADYUHIN Russia analyist for Frontline, feb, 2007 “Energy war”, Frontline, http://www.hinduonnet.com/fline/fl2402/stories/20070209000505900.htm) While NATO refrained from pointing the finger at Moscow, the U.S. has vowed to take on Russia in 2007. National Intelligence Director John Negroponte predicted a further worsening of relations with Moscow in the New Year. He accused Russia of "attempting to exploit the leverage that high energy prices have afforded it, increasingly using strong-arm tactics against neighbouring countries". "Russian assertiveness will continue to inject elements of rivalry and antagonism into U.S. dealings with Moscow, particularly our interactions in the former Soviet Union, and will dampen our ability to cooperate with Russia on issues ranging from counter-terrorism and non-proliferation to energy and democracy promotion in West Asia," the top U.S. intelligence official said in his annual review of global threats for the Senate Intelligence Committee on January 11. Relations 2AC2. U.S.-Russian relations key to Russian political and economic stability – prevents terror and WMD prolif Rumer and Sokolsky, Institute for National Strategic Studies senior research fellows, 2002 [Eugene and Nikolai, STRATEGIC FORUM, #192, May, http://www.ndu.edu/inss/strforum/SF192/sf192.htm Even a cursory examination of the alternatives should make clear why investing in a stable and positive relationship with Russia is in the national interest. We must not take Russia's pragmatism and ability to act in its self-interest for granted. We need to look no further than the record of Russia adrift throughout the 1990s for proof. Russia may have achieved a substantial degree of stability since the nadir of 1998 when its currency collapsed and its leadership became mired in a succession of crises and corruption scandals. However, this achievement and Russia's constructive stance in the international arena should not be considered irreversible. Russia's ability to act in its self-interest will not always translate into compliance with U.S. interests. But dealing with a responsible and coherent leadership presiding over a stable and secure Russia is preferable to coping with an erratic Russia. In the short and medium term, U.S. efforts to combat proliferation and terrorism would face much tougher odds without Russian cooperation. Despite Russia's diminished stature in the international arena, its cooperative approach to U.S.-Russian relations since September 11 has had a positive, soothing impact on trans-Atlantic relations, making it possible for the United States in turn to focus its diplomatic and political energies where they have been needed most. The record of the 1990s offers an important lesson: a weak Russia is in the interest of no one. The ability of Russia to put its own house in order--from securing its nuclear weapons to pumping oil and gas to global markets--is an important element of U.S. national and international security. The danger to U.S. interests is not from a potential challenger to President Putin, who might shy away from a good personal relationship with his American counterpart, but from Russia failing to consolidate its political and economic accomplishments of the last few years. In the long run, U.S. interests would be well served by a cooperative relationship with Russia, as envisioned by President Bush. Russia is by no measure likely to regain its global superpower status. However, as a regional power, it could be a useful collaborator with the United States--from helping to balance China to supplying energy to key markets to exercising restraint in critical areas of conventional and WMD proliferation. Thus, shaping positive and collaborative long-term Russian attitudes is an important U.S. objective. Relations 2AC3. A. Terrorism risks extinction and outweighs war Sean Hannity, Fox News Political Analyst, 2004 [Deliver Us from Evil: Defeating Terrorism, Despotism, and Liberalism, pg. 6] But the terrorists are no mere political sideshow. Though it manifests itself differently, the threat they represent is every bit as grave as the one we experienced during World War II or the Cold War. There is no appeasing this enemy; they will stop at nothing in their quest to destroy the United States, and they will lay waste to every human life they can in the process. As you read these words, the evildoers are plotting the disruption of our lives, the destruction of our property, the murder of our families. Today or tomorrow, fanatical extremists could come in possession of suitcase nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction, whether through rogue nations or via black-market thugs from the former Soviet Union. We face the possibility of our civilization being destroyed, as surely as we did during the Cuban Missile Crisis; indeed, with recent advances in technology and the ongoing instability in the Middle East and around the world, the danger may be worse than ever. B. Prolif leads to extinction Victor Utgoff, Deputy Director of the Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analysis, Survival, Fall,2002, p. 87-90 In sum, widespread proliferation is likely to lead to an occasional shoot-out with nuclear weapons, and that such shoot-outs will have a substantial probability of escalating to the maximum destruction possible with the weapons at hand. Unless nuclear proliferation is stopped, we are headed toward a world that will mirror the American Wild West of the late 1800s. With most, if not all, nations wearing nuclear 'six-shooters' on their hips, the world may even be a more polite place than it is today, but every once in a while we will all gather on a hill to bury the bodies of dead cities or even whole nations. ***Relations extensionsOil key to relationsUS-Russian relations depend on oil cooperation By Joe Barnes, Amy Jaffe & Edward L. Morse staff writers for Saudi-US relations information service January 6, 2004 “Special Energy Supplement: The New Geopolitics of Oil” http://www.saudi-us-relations.org/newsletter2004/saudi-relations-interest-01-06.html U.S.-Russian cooperation on energy in general and oil in particular has been high on the agenda of Bush-Putin summits that began in the summer of 2001 and culminated in the creation of a U.S.-Russian Energy Dialogue after the two Presidents met in May 2002. Given Russia's surprising accommodation to America's need for Central Asian bases to serve as a "staging area" for the campaign in Afghanistan, expectations were high that a new "axis of oil" between Moscow and Washington could be formed-with Russia supplementing, if not displacing, Saudi Arabia. Oil key to US Russian relations Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey. Global Research, July 18, 2008 Asian Times “Russia's energy drive leaves US reeling” http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=9614 In sum, the past week's flow of events in places as far apart as Prague, Hokkaido, Tbilisi, Harare, Tehran and the Arctic underscored that after a brief respite, the rivalries over energy security have revived with a ferocity that can rock the equilibrium of overall US-Russia relations. The situation will likely be exacerbated in the coming period. The geopolitics of energy security are a highly sensitive subject for the Bush administration, whose profound links with Big Oil are legion. It is a tremendous loss of face for the Bush-Cheney-Rice combine that Moscow is outwitting the US on the energy front. 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