Based on the impact assessment, the following specific conclusions and recommendations are made, inter alia. That:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i
Social impacts [Safety, Health, Skills, Institutional capacity etc.; and xv
Economic aspects [Land-use, Economics of, and, markets for the Technology both locally and internationally. xv
Biophysical or sensitivity aspects; xv
Technical or suitability aspects; xv
A project specific Social Impact Assessment (SIA). xv
Safety and Security impacts (Radiological aspects will be evaluated by the NNR, that will inform the overall decision making for this proposed development). xv
Potential impact on health by means of a literature study on the epidemiology of radiologically induced health incidence. xv
Institutional capacity impacts, i.e. the NNR, Department of Minerals and Energy (DME), Departments of Health, Transport, Water Affairs and Forestry and Metropolitan Councils. xv
Legal impacts including financial provisions for decommissioning, radiological waste management and 3rd party liability. xv
Impact(s) on spatial planning from a local and sub-regional point of view. xvi
Impact on tourism in the Western Cape sub-region around Koeberg. xvi
Impact on supply-side management based on the assumption that the Plant proves viable. xvi
Impact on Economic Potential, Markets and Employment. xvi
Life cycle costing of the proposed Plant. xvi
Marine fauna and flora and the effect of the additional thermal outflow on sea life. xvi
Terrestrial fauna and flora and the effect of the proposed Plant on such life. xvi
Archaeological/Palaeontological characteristics of the proposed Plant location. xvi
Sensory assessment(s) i.e. noise and visual: xvi
Waste impacts, i.e. gaseous, liquid and solid (types, quantities and management). xvi
Verification of the geotectonics of the Koeberg site to determine the maximum credible earthquake and evaluate the adequacy of the proposed Plant design. xvi
Verification of the groundwater characteristics of the site both qualitatively and quantitatively and evaluate the adequacy of the proposed Plant design. xvi
Marine (Oceanographic) characteristics of the environment to determine the effect of thermal outflows, and evaluate the adequacy of the proposed Plant design. xvi
Climate (Meteorological) characteristics of the Koeberg site and region to determine (model) operational/worst case emission dispersion. xvi
Population distribution (demographics) up to 80 kilometres from the proposed plant and public exposure risks. xvi
Infrastructure e.g. roads, harbours, telecommunication, medical and emergency services, water supply, sewage facilities, housing and associated infrastructure. xvii
The absence of a coherent national nuclear energy policy and particularly the absence of a national policy regarding the disposal of nuclear waste is both a major factor contributing to the “dread risk perception” experienced by the affected society and a substantive environmental hazard in its own right. The failure to finalise the development of such a policy (with due cognisance of the process that has been initiated to develop a Radioactive Waste Management Policy) may be constituted as a breach of the environmental duty of care borne by the national government in terms of Section 28 of the National Environmental Management Act, 1998 (Act 107 of 1998) (NEMA) and of the principles as contained in Section 2 of NEMA. For this reason the national government is urged to ensure that, at minimum, the development of an effective radioactive waste management policy is regarded as of the utmost importance and fast-tracked, with full cognisance of the need to follow due process. xxiv
Risk perception and negative psycho-social sequelae of nuclear related “dread risk perception” is frequently attenuated and tempered by the provision of neutral, reliable, responsible, un-biased information dissemination and risk communication. While there is a limited public perception that neither NECSA nor Eskom will, necessarily, provide neutral information and risk communication, it is also perceived that anti-nuclear lobbies will not necessarily engage in the provision of neutral information and risk communication either. For this reason it is seen as an urgent imperative that an organisation such as the African Commission on Nuclear Energy (AFCONE), formed to oversee compliance in respect of the Organisation of African Unity’s Treaty of Pelindaba, be formally requested to extend its activities under Article 12 of the Treaty to educate and inform the public of the real risks and issues related to “the peaceful use of nuclear energy for the betterment of society”. xxiv
It is vital that the Tygerberg Hospital’s ability to cope with nuclear incidents and disaster is upgraded and maintained, in line with the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) REMPAN programme, aimed at promoting regional competence to deal with nuclear incidents and disasters. It is, therefore, seen as an absolute requirement that NECSA and Eskom ensure that Tygerberg Hospital has this competence. xxv
The importance of establishing risk communication and risk management as a “two-way” process that includes mechanisms to address legitimate concerns has been stressed at various stages in the SIA Report. Some guidelines regarding the promotion of effective risk communication include ensuring that: xxv
The Melkbosstrand Residents Ratepayers Association, the Transport and Roads Division of the City of Cape Town, as well as other I&APs have raised concerns about existing emergency plans (including evacuation plans) for Koeberg as well as the proposed PBMR. In this regard, the CCT states that it sees the existing Koeberg evacuation plan as requiring re-evaluation and being “totally inefficient …(as) it will take approximately 19 hours to evacuate, which is much too long. This plan should also address the additional PBMR and the result of both reactors being faulty or the effect of the one on the other” (p.5: Annexure D: Comments from service delivery units). xxv
1. INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Need for the PBMR Demonstration Module (The Plant) 1
1.2 Purpose of the ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT REPORT 2
1.3 Major Milestones of the Scoping Phase 3
1.4 Conclusions of the Scoping Phase 4
1.5 Governance of the EIA and other approval requirements 5
Acts 5
Regulations: 6
Treaties/Conventions: 6
Policies: 9
Environmental and Radiological Governance 9
1.6 Public Participation during the EIR 10
THE PROPOSED ACTIVITY 12
SECTION 1: DESCRIPTION OF THE PROPOSED ACTIVITY 12
1.7 the Preferred Site and Alternatives 12
Description of the activity 14
1.7.1 Background 14
1.7.2 Technical Specifications of the PBMR 14
1.7.3 Design Features of the PBMR 15
1.7.4 PBMR Building Facilities 17
1.7.5 PBMR Operating Principle 17
1.7.6 PBMR Fuel 19
1.7.7 Safety and Related aspects of the Demonstration Module PBMR 20
1.7.8 Basic Licensing Requirement for the PBMR 20
1.7.9 Safety Arrangements of the PBMR 23
Security 26
Graphite Fire 29
1.7.10 Solid Waste Management, Spent Fuel and Nuclear Waste 30
SECTION 2: ASPECTS OF THE PROPOSED ACTIVITY 37
introduction 37
1.8 supplementary information on inputs and outputs of the proposed activity 37
1.8.1 Input data 37
1.8.2 Output Data 40
1.9 input/output tables for the various life cycle phases 42
1.9.1 Construction Phase: Input/Output Diagramme 43
1.9.2 Commissioning Phase : Input/Output Diagramme 44
1.9.3 Operational Phase : Input/Output Diagramme 45
1.9.4 Decommissioning Phase: Input/Output Diagramme 46
1.9.5 Dismantling Phase : Input/Output Diagramme 47
SECTION 3: ANTICIPATED IMPACTS OF THE PROPOSED ACTIVITY 49
1.10 impacts related to the input/outputs of the life cycle phases 49
1.11 induced (indirect) impacts 55
1.11.1 Institutional capacities to manage/provide services to the Plant during its life cycle and thereafter. 55
1.11.2 Natural Disasters 55
1.11.3 Man-made Disasters 55
1.12 cumulative impacts 55
linked impacts 56
2. SUMMARY OF ANTICIPATED ISSUES AND IMPACTS AND APPROACH TO THE ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS 57
2.1 introduction 57
2.2 issues of a strategic/policy nature 57
2.3 issues/impacts of a project nature 57
2.3.1 Social Aspects 58
2.3.2 Economic Aspects 58
2.3.3 Biophysical Aspects 59
2.3.4 Technical Aspects 59
approach to the assessment of impacts 60
2.4 cumulative effects 61
2.5 mitigation of significant impacts 61
3. ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS ON the AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT 62
3.1 introduction 62
3.2 assessment of impact on policy issues 62
3.2.1 National Energy Policy White Paper and Alternatives in terms of Energy (fuel) and technology(ies) for Electricity Generation and Supply 62
3.2.2 Radiological Waste Management And Final Disposal Of Radioactive Waste 65
3.2.3 Non-Proliferation Of Nuclear Weapons 66
3.2.4 Radiological Safety/Health/Environmental Issues 67
3.2.5 Epidemiological Studies 68
Assessment on project related issues and the affected environment 71
SECTION 1: IMPACTS OF SOCIAL NATURE 71
Social Impact Assessment 71
Plant Radiological Safety And Security Impact Assessment 93
Impacts on health 125
Impact on Institutional Capacity 137
Legal Impacts and Financial Provision (decommissioning and 3rd party liability) 140
SECTION 2:ECONOMIC ASPECTS 145
Impacts on Spatial Planning 145
Introduction 145
Land-Use Rights 145
Spatial Planning Implications 145
Assessment of Impact(s) 146
Conclusion 146
Impact on Tourism 147
Introduction 147
Structure Of Report 150
Methodology 150
Main Findings 153
Survey Results 153
Conclusion 166
Impact on supply side management 188
Introduction 188
Impact on the proposed Plant on Supply Side Management 188
Demand Side Management 188
The Dsm Rollout Plan for 2002 189
Conclusion 190
Report on Economical potential, markets and employment 191
Introduction 191
The Demonstration Module Pbmr 191
Various Order Scenarios 192
Withdrawal of Exelon 192
Potential Contribution to National Science and Technology Goals 193
Conclusion 217
Life Cycle Costing 218
Introduction 218
The Koeberg NPS Case 218
Financial Provisions for the proposed PBMR 219
Comparative Information 220
Overall Conclusion 221
SECTION 3:BIOPHYSICAL ASPECTS 222
Effects of Thermal OUtflows on Marine Fauna and Flora 222
Introduction 222
Marine Ecology 222
Baseline Ecological Report 222
Final Ecological Report 224
Impact of the proposed PBMR Plant on Terrestrial Fauna and Flora 227
Introduction 227
Discussion 227
Dune Regimes 227
Land Ecosystem 227
Conclusions 228
Archaeological and Paleaontological Characteristics of the proposed Plant Site 230
Introduction 230
Conclusions 230
Noise Impact Assessment 231
Purpose 231
Introduction 231
Relevant Standards 231
Results 231
Discussion Of Results 235
Conclusion 236
Visual Impact Assessment 237
Purpose 237
Scope Of Work 237
Approach And Methodology 238
Locality And Study Area 239
Description Of The Existing Landscape Character 239
Description Of The Proposed Structure 242
Observation Of The Proposed Structure 243
Assessment Of Visual Impacts 251
Anticipated Visual Impacts 252
Assessment Of Alternative Sites For Modular Reactor In Terms Of Associated Activities 252
Mitigation Measures 259
Conclusion 259
Acknowledgements And References 260
Waste impact assessment for the Proposed Plant 261
Introduction 261
Waste Management 261
Conclusions 272
SECTION 4: TECHNICAL ASPECTS 274
Geological, Seismo-Tectonic and Seismic Hazards Assessment of the Koeberg Site 274
Introduction 274
Semi-Regional and Site Geology 275
The Seismo-tectonic Model 287
The Seismic Hazard Assessment 297
Summary of the Main Conclusions 299
References 303
Hydrological & Geohydrological Assessment of the Koeberg Site and Sub-Region 308
Introduction 308
Physiography 308
Site Investigations 308
Regional Geohydrology 309
Site Geohydrology 311
Isotope Hydrology 318
Impact Of The Pbmr Plant 322
Emp 325
Meteorological Characteristics of the Koeberg Site and Sub-Region 328
Introduction 328
Climatic Data Analysis For Koeberg Site And Sub-Region 328
Discussion 328
Conclusions 335
Assessment of the Oceanography of the Koeberg Environment AND Cooling Water Supply 336
Introduction 336
Parameters Reviewed 336
Flooding From The Sea 337
Availability Of Cooling Water And An Alternative Heat Sink 339
Sea Temperatures 341
Conclusion 342
References 342
Evaluation of the Effect of additional Cooling Water Discharge into the Atlantic Ocean at Koeberg Nuclear Power Station 344
Executive Summary 344
Introduction 345
Assumptions: 345
Warm Water Plume 346
Plume Temperature rise and associated Risk 349
Pollution Dilution Potential 351
Potential Marine Impact 351
Conclusion 352
Recommendations 354
References: 354
Population Distribution (Demographics) around Koeberg and Impact of the Proposed PBMR Plant on Emergency Response Planning 354
Introduction 354
The 1996 Population Distribution Data Around Koeberg 355
References 357
Adjusted Census Figures 2001 And 2006 361
Assessment Of Public Risk (Confidential Report Doc No 001929-207 Sec 6: Pbmr 2001 Rev 08 Section 6, Chapters 0, 1, 2, And 3, Annexure 23) 361
Conclusion 362
Infrastructure Status and Capability of the Koeberg Sub-Region 363
Introduction 363
Discussion 363
Conclusion 364
REFERENCES 364
SECTION 5: CUMULATIVE IMPACTS 365
Cumulative Impacts 365
Introduction 365
Cumulative Impacts associated with the Construction Decommissioning/ Dismantling 365
Cumulative Impacts associated with the Operation/Maintenance Phase 366
Linked Impacts 366
SIGNIFICANCE RATING OF IMPACTS 367
Introduction 367
Significance Rating and Discussion of the Plants Related Impacts 368
Impacts of a Social Nature 368
The introduction of 1400 construction workers over the two year construction period may have consequences on the further communication of the disease. 369
However, most of the workers will be sourced from the Cape Town environment with the result that minimal new workers and thus potentially infected individuals will be introduced. 369
Despite local recruitment rigorous practices will have to be employed to minimise the spread or effect of the disease. 369
Issues and Impacts of an Economic Nature 372
Impacts of a Biophysical Nature 376
Technical or suitability impacts (i.e. Impacts of environment on the Plant) 380
4. public participation 388
Introduction 388
Methodology, Scope and Process 388
4.1.1 Overview of the Process Followed 388
Tools and Inputs 390
4.1.2 Identification of Interested and Affected Parties 390
4.1.3 Information document (Volume 2) 390
4.1.4 Structured Focus Group and Individual Interviews and Meetings 390
4.1.5 Public Meetings 392
4.1.6 Public Review of the Draft EIRs 395
4.1.7 Written Submissions Received from I&APs and Comments Register 396
4.1.8 Issues Registers 396
4.1.9 Media Coverage 396
5. conclusions 397
Policy/Strategic Issues and Impacts that is reported on 397
National Energy Policy White Paper 397
Radiological Waste Management and Final Disposal 398
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and Materials for Mass Destruction 399
Epidemiological Studies 399
Radiological Safety 400
Project related Issues and Impacts that were assessed 400
Construction Phase 400
Operations/Maintenance Phase 401
Decommissioning and Dismantling Phase 401
Social Impact Assessment 401
The absence of a coherent national nuclear energy policy and particularly the absence of a national policy regarding the disposal of nuclear waste is both a major factor contributing to the “dread risk perception” experienced by the affected society and a substantive environmental hazard in its own right. The failure to finalise the development of such a policy (with due cognisance of the process that has been initiated to develop a Radioactive Waste Management Policy) may be constituted as a breach of the duty of care borne by the national government in terms of Section 28 of the National Environmental Management Act, 1998 (Act 107 of 1998) (NEMA) and of the principles as contained in Section 2 of NEMA. For this reason the national government is urged to ensure that, at minimum, the finalisation of an effective radioactive waste management policy is regarded as of the utmost importance and fast-tracked, with full cognisance of the need to follow due process. 403
Risk perception and negative psycho-social sequelae of nuclear related “dread risk perception” is frequently attenuated and tempered by the provision of neutral, reliable, responsible, un-biased information dissemination and risk communication. While there is a limited public perception that neither NECSA nor Eskom will, necessarily, provide neutral information and risk communication, it is also perceived that anti-nuclear lobbies will not necessarily engage in the provision of neutral information and risk communication either. For this reason it is seen as an urgent imperative that an organisation such as the African Commission on Nuclear Energy (AFCONE), formed to oversee compliance in respect of the Organisation of African Unity’s Treaty of Pelindaba, be formally requested to extend its activities under Article 12 of the Treaty to educate and inform the public of the real risks and issues related to “the peaceful use of nuclear energy for the betterment of society”. 404
It is vital that the Tygerberg Hospital’s ability to cope with nuclear incidents and disaster is maintained, in line with the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) REMPAN programme, aimed at promoting regional competence to deal with nuclear incidents and disasters. It is, therefore, seen as an absolute requirement that NECSA and Eskom continue to ensure that Tygerberg Hospital maintains this competence. 404
The importance of establishing risk communication and risk management as a “two-way” process that includes mechanisms to address legitimate concerns has been stressed at various stages in the SIA Report. Some guidelines regarding the promotion of effective risk communication include ensuring that: 404
The Melkbosstrand Residents Ratepayers Association, the Transport and Roads Division of the City of Cape Town, as well as other I&APs have raised concerns about existing emergency plans (including evacuation plans) for Koeberg as well as the proposed PBMR. In this regard, the CCT states that it sees the existing Koeberg evacuation plan as requiring re-evaluation and being “totally inefficient …(as) it will take approximately 19 hours to evacuate, which is much too long. This plan should also address the additional PBMR and the result of both reactors being faulty or the effect of the one on the other” (p.5: Annexure D: Comments from service delivery units). 405
Economics 405
Cumulative and Linked ImpactS 406
Recommendations 406
6. ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT PLAN 408
Introduction 408
Scope 408
Purpose 408
Applicability 408
Accountability and Responsibility 408
Authority Reporting 409
Normative references 409
Definitions 409
Abbreviations 410
GENERAL EMP Specifications During Construction 411
Air quality 411
Water quality 412
Waste Management 414
Vehicle/Equipment Management 415
Land management 416
General 417
Social issues 419
Visual 423
Radiation Environmental Surveillance 423
EMP Specifications during Operation 424
General Operating Practices 424
Quality Management Programmes 426
Conduct of Operations 428
Operating Technical Specifications 431
Conduct of Maintenance 431
Radiation Protection Programme 433
Emergency Plan 434
Site Nuclear Security 435
Nuclear Materials Safeguards 435
Waste Management 435
Fire Protection 436
Environmental Surveillance Programme 437
Nuclear Public Awareness 441
Social 442
Hydrology 442
Land Management 443
Environmental Management Plan 443
REFERENCES 443