Population Distribution (Demographics) around Koeberg and Impact of the Proposed PBMR Plant on Emergency Response Planning

Population Distribution (Demographics) around Koeberg and Impact of the Proposed PBMR Plant on Emergency Response Planning

Introduction

This subject is of particular relevance for spatial development as well as emergency planning and evacuation purposes around nuclear power stations.

The subject relates very closely with meteorological (climatic) conditions, infrastructure availability (i.e. road, telecommunications and medical facilities) and emergency response infrastructure (i.e. people and equipment). A specific requirement for the operating license of a nuclear station is the continued ability to demonstrate the capability to manage and implement the Emergency Plan under various scenarios.

This chapter describes the adjusted 1996¹³⁹ population distribution within 50km of the Koeberg NPS as a base case (Appendix 7). These figures were updated for 2001 and projected to 2006 by “Terramare” Environmental Data Systems (Pty) Ltd (Appendix 8), which included the domestic (permanent) and transient populations (tourists) for the area.

For the purposes of emergency planning, the PBMR (Pty) Ltd (designers of the proposed Plant and Eskom) postulates that the exclusion zone around the proposed Plant will be 400 meters, with limited further need for population regulation beyond this sphere.

To support their statement preliminary Probabilistic Risk Assessments and accident consequence assessment were performed to determine public exposure risks for a Category C event as postulated by the Fundamental Safety Criteria of the NNR (See Table 1, Chapter 2). The approach and results are reported in this Chapter.

The 1996 Population Distribution Data Around Koeberg¹⁴⁰

• 
  Population Data
  

• 
  Conclusion
  

• 
  The cumulative population per 22.5 degree sector shows a sharp spike around Atlantis between the distances 10 km and 25 km from Koeberg. The population of Atlantis according to this data is 52 084.
  
• 
  For distances greater than this the population distribution is dominated by the population in and around Cape Town.
  
• 
  Total current maximum population (excluding tourists) is about 3.8 million within the 80km radius from Koeberg NPS.
  
• 
  Construction staff for the proposed Plant will impact on the domestic and transient population numbers especially in the 0 – 5km and 0 – 20km concentric sector around the Station. This aspect needs to be incorporated into the Emergency Response Plan for the Koeberg NPS and the proposed Plant and communicated with the relevant players (e.g. emergency teams and liaison committees) and become part of the Communication actions pursued by the Koeberg NPS.
  
  
  

Table 51: Koeberg Cumulative Population Data Up To 50 Km

Adjusted Census Figures 2001 And 2006

Updated census information was generated through “Terramare” Environmental Data Systems (Pty) Ltd (Annexure 8). Their Report considered both domestic and transient populations (tourists) for the area for the periods 2001 and 2006 during the peak tourist season.

Two scenarios are described, namely:

i. Domestic Populations for 2001 and 2006 in 5km concentric circles around Koeberg NPS up to 80km and within 22.5 degree sectors around the KNPS. (See Annexure 8 Tables T-3-5 on page 39 and Figure 3-12 on page 74 and Table T-3-11 on page 64 and Figure F-3-18 on page 81) which reflect this information.

Ii Transient Populations (Tourist both domestic and international) for 2001 and 2006 up to 80km from the KNP are reflected in (Annexure 8 Table T-3-1 on page 18 and Table X on page 103).

Assessment Of Public Risk (Confidential Report Doc No 001929-207 Sec 6: Pbmr 2001 Rev 08 Section 6, Chapters 0, 1, 2, And 3, Annexure 23)

• 
  APPROACH
  

Preliminary assessments have been conducted to evaluate the public risk related to the operation of the PBMR Plant.

Various codes are used to calculate the radiation inventories, release rates and expected activity levels for Radioactive Materials (RM) in various parts of the Plant (reactor, coolant, primary cycle, MPS, etc.).

Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods are then employed to determine and assess the consequences of category A, B and C events (as stipulated by NNR Fundamental Safety Criteria) and the resultant risk to the public.

The PBMR (Pty) Ltd and Eskom have conducted these calculations and consequence assessments using the PC COSYMA Version 2.1. software.

A wide spectrum of events and frequency was considered, particularly those involving breach of the pressure boundary and which will result in public exposure and possible resultant late mortality or morbidity.

The peak and average population risk were determined for the population around the proposed PBMR Plant site (using the demographic data and meteorological conditions) from 400m up to +50km.

• 
  RESULTS
  

The results obtained provided the following values for category C events for a 268 Mwth core and estimated for a 302 MWth core.

	From PBMR at 400 meters		NNR limit
268MWth Core	302MWth Core
Peak risk141	9.68 x 10-10 fatalities/year	1.09 x 10-9 fat/yr	5 x 10-6 fatalities/year
Average public risk	4.64 x 10-13 fatalities/year	5.23 x 10-13 fat/yr	<1 x 10-8 fatalities/year

The 268 and 302 designs are different due to, amongst other things, the solid central column resulting in lower operating temperatures for fuel. The higher power indicates an increase in fission product inventory by a factor 302/268 (1.127 rounded) as an approximation – ignoring the effect of lower operating temperatures since this would only affect the steady state activity in the MPS. Assuming that the latent release, which dominates in terms of dose, is also a factor of 302/268 higher by this margin. Therefore, the impact of the 302MW design can be calculated as a factor 302/268 higher than the risk figures calculated for the 268MW design.

It should be emphasised that:

• 
  There is a very large margin between the estimated risk and the targets set by the NNR;
  
• 
  The current assessment methods are known to be conservative and it is to be expected that the estimate will reduce in the future.
  

Conclusion

• 
  The result of the preliminary analysis, based on conservative assumptions in consequence assessment modeling, confirms the compliance of the PBMR Plant (268 and 302MWth core) with the NNR safety criteria for the public.
  
• 
  The analysis must be verified by the NNR as part of their licensing process to assure final acceptance of the results.
  
  
  

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