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- Afghan/Pakistan relations impact: Taliban Reconcilation
US-Afghan rels highUS-Afghan relations are high BBC 6/28 [2010, BBC Monitoring South Asia – Political, Afghan daily urges strong commitment by international community, Anis (afghan newspaper), lexis] The strategic relations between the Afghan and US governments and the international community are still strong in the international community's framework of cooperation with the Afghan government and its commitments to Afghanistan. The Afghan government is not only committed to theses strategic relations, it has also taken practical actions to strengthen this relationship and the Afghan government expects the international community to do the same to keep ties strong and stable. The international community's presence in Afghanistan, especially the US government's, is in the two countries' long-term joint interests. This presence is to ensure security and stability in the region. If the international community is supporting the war on terror, that means it is defending the joint and unique interest of world. It must be emphasized that friendship between the Afghan government and the international community meets the strategic interests. This relation is strong, day-to-day, and proves its effectiveness in practice. But most of the world media reflect the facts in different ways, which sometimes makes the friendly relations between Afghan government and the international community worse. We wish that world media to report Afghanistan's incidents, updates and facts accurately and honestly. And they should give the real picture which can help Afghan and other nations in the world. This is the mutual strategic commitment between Afghan government and international community. afghan-paki linksPerception of U.S. withdrawal drives Afghanistan toward Pakistan BBC 6/28 [2010, BBC Monitoring South Asia – Political, Afghan expert says president seeks better ties with Pakistani intelligence, lexis] Afghan political expert Mahmud Saiqal has said relations between Kabul and Islamabad have improved recently because the Afghan government's relations with the West and the US are not very good and it is not in a good position inside Afghanistan. Speaking on a talk show on independent Tolo TV on 28 June, Saiqal said there were signs that the international community would start a military withdrawal from Afghanistan soon, or at least it would not have a military presence in the country in the near future, meaning the Afghan government and President Karzai would no longer have facilities and possibilities provided by the international community. Saiqal believed that President Karzai was making policies on the run by turning to Pakistan because Karzai thinks the cards played by the Pakistani intelligence in the region are more likely to win. He said: "It seems that the international forces will start withdrawing from Afghanistan in mid 2011. This means Afghanistan will remain with the region again; therefore, we need to start paving the way for that day by going along with some regional powers, and Pakistani intelligence is a key player in the region." Karzai will turn to Pakistan due to fear of troop withdrawal Weekend Australian 6/26 [2010, Pakistani links alarm - US islamabad ready to forge partnership with taliban, lexis] Mr Karzai gave his public support to retaining General McChrystal as the top US commander, despite the former commander's scathing comments about the Obama administration. The Afghan leader is believed to accept the appointment of General Petraeus, but he is known to be nervous about the political climate in the US and the public pressure for a troop withdrawal that could leave his government at the mercy of the Taliban unless new alliances are made. Afghan/Pakistan relations impact: Taliban ReconcilationLow US-Afghan relations over the presence of troops are key to Pakistan stepping in to help Afghanistan reach a settlement with the Taliban Menon 6/30 [Rajan, prof of IR at Lehigh University and political science at CUNY, 2010, LA Times, The Taliban effect; Pakistan sees the odds of U.S. success in Afghanistan diminishing and is willing to deal with a re-fortified Taliban, lexis] Except that they didn't do so entirely. Pakistan has been the front-line state in America's anti-Taliban counterinsurgency in Afghanistan. It has fought the Afghan Taliban, and even more assiduously its Pakistani wing, the Tehrik-e-Taliban, which, unlike its Afghan counterpart, poses a direct threat to the Pakistani state and to the dominance within it of the military-intelligence complex. Pakistani presidents, first Musharraf and now Asif Ali Zardari, have proclaimed that Pakistani soldiers have given their lives in the fight against the Taliban and that the work of Pakistani intelligence has been crucial in catching key Al Qaeda and Taliban operatives, most recently the February capture of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the top deputy of Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar. In exchange for this role, Pakistan has gained billions in U.S. economic and military aid and defused a U.S. policy that, in Islamabad's view, was moving closer to India and sidelining Pakistan. But that's always been only one part of Pakistan's strategy. Although the Tehrik-e-Taliban is regarded as a foe, the Afghan Taliban is seen somewhat differently. Sure, there are gains to be made with the United States by launching offensives against the latter and delivering up some of its operatives from time to time. But Pakistan also wants to hedge its bets lest the campaign of the United States and its allies fails and the Afghan government of President Hamid Karzai is forced to make peace, and even accept a power-sharing deal with the Taliban. Should this happen, Pakistan is determined to play a pivotal role in shaping a post-American Afghanistan, just as it did in post-Soviet Afghanistan through its sponsorship of the Taliban. Its continuing ties with the Afghan Taliban -- and with two other Afghan Islamist movements with which it has a long history, those led by Sirajuddin Haqqani and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar -- have been retained for the latter scenario. And the more the evidence mounts of the unpopularity of Karzai's corrupt and ineffectual government; of the disappointing results of Operation Moshtarak, which was launched in February amid great fanfare and was supposed to retake control of Marja from the Taliban; of declining support among Americans for the Afghan campaign; of signs that key NATO allies are eager to exit Afghanistan, while others are wondering about the prospects for success; and of Karzai's reported overtures to the Taliban and his pique with Washington, the more the Pakistani are preparing for a post-American Afghanistan. Pakistan is determined that there be a friendly, indeed dependent, government in Afghanistan once the Americans and their allies call it quits -- President Obama has pledged to start withdrawing U.S. troops in July 2011. They are well aware of the India-friendly governments that prevailed for decades in Afghanistan until the collapse in 1992 of the Soviet-backed government in Kabul. Pakistan is determined to not be outflanked again. And though the Taliban may not be its first pick to rule Afghanistan, Islamabad knows that it can do business with the movement. Why? Because it has done so before, and because, for all the talk of a partnership, the United States is deeply distrusted within Pakistan generally and its military-industrial complex in particular. Washington may not like what Pakistan is doing, but given Islamabad's circumstances it should hardly be surprised by it. Pakistan has not one, but two policies on Afghanistan, one crafted for what it sees as the diminishing possibility of an American success, the other for a post-American Afghanistan. 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