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AFghan-Taliban reconciliation link
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AFghan-Taliban reconciliation linkPerception that the U.S. is going to stay and win the war is key to reconciliation with the Taliban Washington Post 6/28 [2010, Panetta: Afghan reconciliation 'difficult', lexis] CIA Director Leon Panetta said Sunday that U.S. officials have not seen "any firm intelligence" that insurgent groups in Afghanistan are interested in reconciliation, and he dismissed reports that a top militant leader is open to a Pakistan-brokered agreement. "We have seen no evidence that they are truly interested in reconciliation where they would surrender their arms, where they would denounce al-Qaeda, where they would really try to become part of that society," Panetta said on ABC's "This Week." "My view is that . . . unless they're convinced the United States is going to win and that they are going to be defeated, I think it is very difficult to proceed with a reconciliation that is going to be meaningful." Panetta was responding to reports that senior Pakistani military and intelligence officials are seeking to broker a deal that would usher the network led by Sirajuddin Haqqani, a major element in the insurgency in Afghanistan and an ally of al-Qaeda, into a power-sharing arrangement in Kabul. More broadly, Panetta said none of the insurgent groups in Afghanistan has shown a real interest in talks. US show of strength is key to Taliban-Karzai reconcilation LA Times 6/30 [2010, Persuading key Taliban faction is a tough sell; Pakistan wants Afghan leaders to reconcile with group, but its ties to Al Qaeda run deep, lexis] Despite Karzai's new approach, many Afghans believe that Pakistan is interested only in advancing its own regional agenda. "Pakistan dictates, and does what it wants," said Khudai Nazar Sarmachar, a lawmaker who sits on the Afghan parliament's foreign affairs panel. "I have no trust that Pakistan will help bring peace to Afghanistan." Most experts believe that Afghan Taliban insurgent groups won't come to the table unless the U.S. has militarily gained the upper hand. During his interview on "This Week," Panetta said that unless the Taliban is "convinced that the United States is going to win and that they're going to be defeated, I think it's very difficult to proceed with a reconciliation that's going to be meaningful." AFghan-Taliban reconciliation badReconcilation would bring Al Qaeda into the Afghan government LA Times 6/30 [2010, Persuading key Taliban faction is a tough sell; Pakistan wants Afghan leaders to reconcile with group, but its ties to Al Qaeda run deep, lexis] Experts say both Pakistan and Afghanistan realize that breaking the Haqqani network's ties with Al Qaeda is a prerequisite to any deal. The question is whether it would ever happen. Amir Rana, one of Pakistan's leading analysts on militant groups, said it's not possible for many militant groups, including the Haqqani network, to completely separate from Al Qaeda. "What the Haqqani network and the other Taliban groups can offer is a guarantee that they will influence Al Qaeda to not attack U.S. or NATO forces, and a guarantee that their soil would not be used in a terrorist attack against the West," he said. "This is the maximum concession that the Taliban can offer." Numbering in the thousands of fighters, the Haqqani network has a strong relationship with Pakistan's military and intelligence community that stretches 30 years, back to the time when Pashtun warlord Jalaluddin Haqqani organized mujahedin fighters against Soviet troops in the 1980s. Haqqani has now delegated authority in his network of fighters to his son, Sirajuddin. The group moves freely between Afghanistan's eastern provinces and its headquarters in North Waziristan, where it has been left untouched by Pakistan's military. Experts believe the Haqqani network continues to provide sanctuary to Al Qaeda leaders and commanders. U.S. leaders have frequently urged Pakistan to launch an offensive against Haqqani hide-outs, recently backing those entreaties with evidence that the network was behind major attacks in Kabul and at Bagram air base, the U.S. facility north of the capital. The government in Islamabad, meanwhile, has brushed aside those demands, arguing that its forces are overstretched by extensive military operations against Taliban strongholds in surrounding tribal areas. Analysts and former Pakistani military commanders, however, say the real reason that Islamabad has avoided military action against the Haqqani network is that it sees the group and other Afghan Taliban elements as a useful hedge against India's rapidly growing interests in Afghanistan. Haqqani leaders have yet to signal whether they are interested in starting talks with Karzai's government. In a report issued Monday, Jeffrey Dressler of the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington research organization, said the Haqqani group's ties to Al Qaeda were much closer than those of many other Taliban groups, and he expressed doubt that they could be broken. "Any negotiated settlement with the Haqqanis threatens to undermine the raison d'etre for U.S. involvement in Afghanistan over the past decade," Dressler wrote. But he and other military analysts said the Haqqani network appears to have been hit hard by recent military operations, potentially undercutting the militants' ability to launch attacks in Kabul. Afghan-Taliban reconcilation k Afghan-Pakistan relsPakistan is inching towards Afghanistan in an effort to get ahead of India when the U.S. pulls out but it will depend on whether they can reconcile Karzai and the Taliban LA Times 6/30 [2010, Persuading key Taliban faction is a tough sell; Pakistan wants Afghan leaders to reconcile with group, but its ties to Al Qaeda run deep, lexis] Prospects for an effort by Pakistan to broker a reconciliation between the government of neighboring Afghanistan and a violent wing of the Afghan Taliban depend on overcoming a major obstacle: severing long-standing relations between the militant group and Al Qaeda. U.S. officials acknowledge that Pakistan has begun trying to seed a rapprochement between Afghan President Hamid Karzai and the Haqqani network, a branch of the Afghan Taliban that uses Pakistan to launch attacks on U.S., NATO and Afghan forces. Driving Pakistan's effort is a desire to increase its influence with the government in Kabul and diminish any role its archrival to the east, India, may have there once the U.S. begins pulling troops out, a withdrawal scheduled to start next summer. Directory: file -> view view -> Western Europe after wwii view -> Author study: paul fleischman view -> Qpa1 7ela study Guide view -> Arctic Oil/Gas Neg view -> November 1970 Approximately 150,000-500,000 deaths Bhola Cyclone Bangladesh view -> Grade Level: 6 Unit of Study: Caribbean glce view -> Citation: Duffield, Katy view -> Table of Contents Lesson # view -> Chinese Wind Energy Disad Download 1.27 Mb. Share with your friends:
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